zubs said:It feels like 2002. You guys got 4-5 years before the next peak.
1991 - peak - Japanese stock market takes a shit
15 years later
2006 - peak - Too many liar loans. Banks selling junk investments.at A ratings.
15 years later
2021 - peak - Chinese stock market takes a shit?
something like that.
1989 was the local peak, not 1991 and it coincided with the savings and loan crisis.
One should probably account for the internet age speeding up the cycle...so perhaps 2019 will be the peak.
i1 said:Affordability is still really good. You can get into a $1M home for about $5k a month PITI+HOA
woodburyowner said:You really can't compare the average US Household income numbers with Irvine and surrounding cities. I don't know anyone with dual income that makes less than 200k a year.
woodburyowner said:You really can't compare the average US Household income numbers with Irvine and surrounding cities. I don't know anyone with dual income that makes less than 200k a year.
Well done. I'd only quibble that you'd be hard pressed to find people saving 15% of gross for retirement. People would rather raid their retirement allocation/savings to buy real estate. I'm not condoning or criticizing, but I think that's the reality these days.someguy said:i1 said:Affordability is still really good. You can get into a $1M home for about $5k a month PITI+HOA
I'm curious about that statement, so I ran some numbers. Detailed assumptions and calculations are listed in the attachment. It's probably not perfectly precise, but the gist of it is:
ASSUMPTIONS: DINK, no car payments, employer subsidized health insurance, healthy, $200,000 down payment, $75k cash reserves, no other debt payments, saves 15% of gross for retirement.
RESULT: A household would need gross income of $178k to fit in to the "house payment should be no more than 35% of gross" rule of thumb. They would have about $550 per month of positive cash flow after the necessities (taxes, house, food, insurance, transportation, retirement) are covered.
Less than 8% of US households make at least $178k per the 2016 BLS Reports https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/cps-hinc/hinc-01.html
irvinehomeowner said:No way you can find the average household income in Irvine.
Skewed by:
- Students
- Older families who paid much lower prices than current values
- FCBs who don't report income but have bought tons of real estate in Irvine
etc etc
eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:No way you can find the average household income in Irvine.
Skewed by:
- Students
- Older families who paid much lower prices than current values
- FCBs who don't report income but have bought tons of real estate in Irvine
etc etc
Do you think company xyz pays its all employees $100k? (A person that answers phones, mails the package, drives the fork lift, fills the copier with paper makes 100k)
freedomcm said:eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:No way you can find the average household income in Irvine.
Skewed by:
- Students
- Older families who paid much lower prices than current values
- FCBs who don't report income but have bought tons of real estate in Irvine
etc etc
Do you think company xyz pays its all employees $100k? (A person that answers phones, mails the package, drives the fork lift, fills the copier with paper makes 100k)
those folks don't live in Irvine. Neither can dual school teacher couples.
If you inherited a house from your aunt who lived outside of San Francisco, you can afford to live in Irvine on a teacher's salary.those folks don't live in Irvine. Neither can dual school teacher couples.