BondTrader_IHB
New member
As a bond trader for a major insurance company, I receive tons of economic commentaries from banks on the street on daily basis. I'd like to share some informative stuff you guys might find interesting going forward.
David Rosenberg
Merrill Lynch Chief North American Economist
In need of a new bank - a jobs bank
"Internals of the report were as weak as the headline
The internals of the report, like its recent predecessors, were at least at weak as
the headline. The benchmark revisions were mixed but December was taken
down to -577,000 from -524,000 respectively. With all the revisions and the
current estimate for January, the economy has now shed 2.5 million jobs in just
the past four months. Compare that to the 1.8 million average decline we
typically see through the entire 10-month recessions of the past. We exceeded
that in just the past four months alone!
Job losses very broad based
The diffusion index is down to an all-time low of 25.3%, which means that for
every company adding to their payrolls, three are in cutback mode. The
comparable figure for manufacturing, by the way, is down to an all-time low of
7%, which means that businesses in the sector that are cutting jobs are
outnumbering the ones adding to payrolls by a 14-to-1 ratio. In the last recession,
the low in this factory diffusion index was 10 and in the early 1990s the trough
was 17 ? just to put the current 7 figure into perspective.
Household survey showed a record 1.24 million job plunge
The companion Household survey was even worse than the payroll report, if that
is possible ? showing a record 1.24 million job plunge. The data go back to 1950,
and we have never seen something like that before; even in per cent terms
(-0.9%), there has not been a decline of this magnitude in over 40 years. And
almost all of the January plunge was in full-time employment ? down an eyepopping
1.1 million, taking the cumulative loss since the recession began in late
2007 to 6.1 million, which is unprecedented. In a ?normal? recession, we lose a
little more than 2-1/2 million full-time positions. We have already lost nearly three
times that amount and counting.
Unemployment rate for full-time workers spiked to 8%
And, it is full-time employment that ultimately drives income, confidence and
spending. While the unemployment rate jumped 0.4 percentage points for the
second month in a row to 7.6%, the highest since September 1992, the rate for
full-time workers spiked from 7.5% to 8%, which was the highest since January
1984."
David Rosenberg
Merrill Lynch Chief North American Economist
In need of a new bank - a jobs bank
"Internals of the report were as weak as the headline
The internals of the report, like its recent predecessors, were at least at weak as
the headline. The benchmark revisions were mixed but December was taken
down to -577,000 from -524,000 respectively. With all the revisions and the
current estimate for January, the economy has now shed 2.5 million jobs in just
the past four months. Compare that to the 1.8 million average decline we
typically see through the entire 10-month recessions of the past. We exceeded
that in just the past four months alone!
Job losses very broad based
The diffusion index is down to an all-time low of 25.3%, which means that for
every company adding to their payrolls, three are in cutback mode. The
comparable figure for manufacturing, by the way, is down to an all-time low of
7%, which means that businesses in the sector that are cutting jobs are
outnumbering the ones adding to payrolls by a 14-to-1 ratio. In the last recession,
the low in this factory diffusion index was 10 and in the early 1990s the trough
was 17 ? just to put the current 7 figure into perspective.
Household survey showed a record 1.24 million job plunge
The companion Household survey was even worse than the payroll report, if that
is possible ? showing a record 1.24 million job plunge. The data go back to 1950,
and we have never seen something like that before; even in per cent terms
(-0.9%), there has not been a decline of this magnitude in over 40 years. And
almost all of the January plunge was in full-time employment ? down an eyepopping
1.1 million, taking the cumulative loss since the recession began in late
2007 to 6.1 million, which is unprecedented. In a ?normal? recession, we lose a
little more than 2-1/2 million full-time positions. We have already lost nearly three
times that amount and counting.
Unemployment rate for full-time workers spiked to 8%
And, it is full-time employment that ultimately drives income, confidence and
spending. While the unemployment rate jumped 0.4 percentage points for the
second month in a row to 7.6%, the highest since September 1992, the rate for
full-time workers spiked from 7.5% to 8%, which was the highest since January
1984."