"4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

I personally think (with no expertise or inside knowledge whatsoever) that the banks are making descisions whether to foreclose and bring to market mainly based on their balance sheets and regulatory concerns. If they foreclose they have to declare the actual value of the property. Show to many foreclosures and they reveal their insolvency. These are the same people that got us into this mess, why would they show any signs of intelligence now?
 
[quote author="dcoffield" date=1249988643]I personally think (with no expertise or inside knowledge whatsoever) that the banks are making descisions whether to foreclose and bring to market mainly based on their balance sheets and regulatory concerns. If they foreclose they have to declare the actual value of the property. Show to many foreclosures and they reveal their insolvency. These are the same people that got us into this mess, why would they show any signs of intelligence now?</blockquote>


This is exactly the company i'm working for now. for the last 3 years i've always questioned their decisions, so why would they all off a sudden start making intellegent decisions?



[The Ninja is quietly waiting, watching, and ready for the perfect time....]
 
Now I'm not saying anyone is wrong, but I was just wondering at what point will the talk of shadow inventory die down? If we go 4-6 more months without any signs of a flood of REOs, is it safe to say that the shadow inventory is not nearly as large as some predicted? I have my reasons for not being convinced of the threat of shadow inventory, but at the same time I can understand where the opposing view is coming from.
 
I don't personally think the shadow inventory will be released by the banks any faster than it has been until a) the government makes them via regulation or enforcement of some sort, or b) somebody with balls at the top of the corporate food chain at Bank X tells the underlings it's okay.



I know the inventory is there, but I also have great faith in cubicle-dwellers' unwillingness to make difficult choices that could get them "in trouble". Status quo will win until someone changes the status quo.
 
[quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251410976]Now I'm not saying anyone is wrong, but I was just wondering at what point will the talk of shadow inventory die down? </blockquote>


I'm not on an excersise program right now, but when I was, I walk around two blocks. The one behind my house, and then I loop around and walk the one in front of my house. If I need to walk longer I just make more loops. It takes about three minutes to make the back loop, and about five to do the front loop. While on my walk I pass no less than eight unoccupied and foreclosed and bank owned homes that aren't on the market, and exactly one that is on the market.



Are you saying I'm wrong because I can touch and feel the shadow inventory every morning I'm on my walk?



Cayci is exactly correct. To assume they will stay camped out on the glut of homes (my neighborhood can't be unique) forever is madness, but some outside force will be required to kick start the flood.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1251414345][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251410976]<strong>Now I'm not saying anyone is wrong</strong>, but I was just wondering at what point will the talk of shadow inventory die down? </blockquote>


I'm not on an excersise program right now, but when I was, I walk around two blocks. The one behind my house, and then I loop around and walk the one in front of my house. If I need to walk longer I just make more loops. It takes about three minutes to make the back loop, and about five to do the front loop. While on my walk I pass no less than eight unoccupied and foreclosed and bank owned homes that aren't on the market, and exactly one that is on the market.



Are you saying I'm wrong because I can touch and feel the shadow inventory every morning I'm on my walk?



Cayci is exactly correct. To assume they will stay camped out on the glut of homes (my neighborhood can't be unique) forever is madness, but some outside force will be required to kick start the flood.</blockquote>


The first sentence I said, "I'm not saying anyone is wrong..." I was just trying to get an answer as to how long you will hold your opinion if nothing changes in terms of inventory in the next 4-6 months. If banks continue to leak out inventory at a slower pace than home are being foreclosed, then the shadow inventory will continue to grow and it will take years for banks to clear this inventory, won't it?



It takes awhile for banks to foreclose on a property and relist it back on the market, yes. But, it doesn't mean that there is a conspiracy to withhold properties from being listed on the market. How long have those properties been sitting vacant and not on the market? Less than 3 months after the bank took it back or more than 3 months? Have you checked to see if possibly investors purchased the property without having to be listed?



As an agent, I wish there were more REOs listed because the ones that are receive multiple offers and are extremely competitive, often time selling above asking price.
 
[quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251416617]



It takes awhile for banks to foreclose on a property and relist it back on the market, yes. But, it doesn't mean that there is a conspiracy to withhold properties from being listed on the market. How long have those properties been sitting vacant and not on the market? Less than 3 months after the bank took it back or more than 3 months? Have you checked to see if possibly investors purchased the property without having to be listed? </blockquote>


The most recent REO on my walk (the one that is listed for sale) was taken to auction in June, and on the market by mid July. I used to work in special assets, they can turn them around a lot quicker than you think. They just aren't. 9 months+ on most of them. Yes, I have the capacity to do a title search, no they haven't sold to investors.



BTW, the listed home is still out there 40+ days because it is listed $100-120K too high IMO. The other eight are in way worse condition and had an average of $650K out on them. The market (a price where they will move) is now about $250K-300K IMO.



I only know what I know, but I know the neighborhood I'm renting in very well.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1251416970][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251416617]



It takes awhile for banks to foreclose on a property and relist it back on the market, yes. But, it doesn't mean that there is a conspiracy to withhold properties from being listed on the market. How long have those properties been sitting vacant and not on the market? Less than 3 months after the bank took it back or more than 3 months? Have you checked to see if possibly investors purchased the property without having to be listed? </blockquote>


The most recent REO on my walk (the one that is listed for sale) was taken to auction in June, and on the market by mid July. I used to work in special assets, they can turn them around a lot quicker than you think. They just aren't. 9 months+ on most of them. Yes, I have the capacity to do a title search, no they haven't sold to investors.



BTW, the listed home is still out there 40+ days because it is listed $100-120K too high IMO. The other eight are in way worse condition and had an average of $650K out on them. The market (a price where they will move) is now about $250K-300K IMO.



I only know what I know, but I know the neighborhood I'm renting in very well.</blockquote>


I believe you. I was mainly talking about Riverside County (i.e. Lake Elsinore). Anytime I've spoken with the foreclosure departments at the banks, they say it takes 3-6 weeks just to have the property put into the database, where it is then assigned to an agent (and I'm sure that takes longer as well).
 
I get the feeling that the federal government is doing all it can in collusion with the banks from bringing that inventory on to the market. If they can hold on for another year, that is what they will do. Once the dam breaks, Roubini's prediction of the double dip will come to pass.



But you can't underestimate the power of the banks and the federal government. They are doing all they can to keep our economy up. It may take a long time before this shadow bubble finally busts.



People were predicting the realestate bubble to bust in 2003 and look how long that took. The bears were right, but they were off by about 3.5 years.
 
[quote author="zubs" date=1251424934]

People were predicting the realestate bubble to bust in 2003 and look how long that took. The bears were right, but they were off by about 3.5 years.</blockquote>
It should have burst if you follow the recent historic cycles or roughly 7 years. I think the problem was the exotic financing that took off in the early 00's that kept it going until 05/06.
 
[quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251417501][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1251416970][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251416617]



It takes awhile for banks to foreclose on a property and relist it back on the market, yes. But, it doesn't mean that there is a conspiracy to withhold properties from being listed on the market. How long have those properties been sitting vacant and not on the market? Less than 3 months after the bank took it back or more than 3 months? Have you checked to see if possibly investors purchased the property without having to be listed? </blockquote>


The most recent REO on my walk (the one that is listed for sale) was taken to auction in June, and on the market by mid July. I used to work in special assets, they can turn them around a lot quicker than you think. They just aren't. 9 months+ on most of them. Yes, I have the capacity to do a title search, no they haven't sold to investors.



BTW, the listed home is still out there 40+ days because it is listed $100-120K too high IMO. The other eight are in way worse condition and had an average of $650K out on them. The market (a price where they will move) is now about $250K-300K IMO.



I only know what I know, but I know the neighborhood I'm renting in very well.</blockquote>


I believe you. I was mainly talking about Riverside County (i.e. Lake Elsinore). Anytime I've spoken with the foreclosure departments at the banks, they say it takes 3-6 weeks just to have the property put into the database, where it is then assigned to an agent (and I'm sure that takes longer as well).</blockquote>


If you give me a particular zip code in Riverside County to use as an example, I can better answer your question as to when I think I would give up on the idea of there being a shadow inventory.
 
I've been watching this pissing match for a few weeks now, and I gotta say it's stupid. REOs go into contract in days, you would never expect to see them in Redfin or other websites like theirs. There's thousands of these things in escrow.
 
Same thing goes for that list by Graphrix. Where are the homes on the market or in process? You only tracked completed sales. I thought you were the braintrust, the way you are idolized here!
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1251433221][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251417501][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1251416970][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251416617]



It takes awhile for banks to foreclose on a property and relist it back on the market, yes. But, it doesn't mean that there is a conspiracy to withhold properties from being listed on the market. How long have those properties been sitting vacant and not on the market? Less than 3 months after the bank took it back or more than 3 months? Have you checked to see if possibly investors purchased the property without having to be listed? </blockquote>


The most recent REO on my walk (the one that is listed for sale) was taken to auction in June, and on the market by mid July. I used to work in special assets, they can turn them around a lot quicker than you think. They just aren't. 9 months+ on most of them. Yes, I have the capacity to do a title search, no they haven't sold to investors.



BTW, the listed home is still out there 40+ days because it is listed $100-120K too high IMO. The other eight are in way worse condition and had an average of $650K out on them. The market (a price where they will move) is now about $250K-300K IMO.



I only know what I know, but I know the neighborhood I'm renting in very well.</blockquote>


I believe you. I was mainly talking about Riverside County (i.e. Lake Elsinore). Anytime I've spoken with the foreclosure departments at the banks, they say it takes 3-6 weeks just to have the property put into the database, where it is then assigned to an agent (and I'm sure that takes longer as well).</blockquote>


If you give me a particular zip code in Riverside County to use as an example, I can better answer your question as to when I think I would give up on the idea of there being a shadow inventory.</blockquote>


92532 and Aliso Viejo for Orange County
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251436219]Same thing goes for that list by Graphrix. Where are the homes on the market or in process? You only tracked completed sales. I thought you were the braintrust, the way you are idolized here!</blockquote>


Great... you found the forums. This should be fun... like as fun as prying my eyeballs out with a spoon.



Thousands huh? Really? You can't even do basic addition, but I bet you can calculate your commission right down to the penny. As of 8/20 there were 319 active REOs, and 515 REOs that went pending in the last 30 days. Not exactly thousands, and truthfully... not even a thousand.
 
You're still missing a bunch. Where are the pendings that are older than 30 days? What about the ones that are closed so far in August? Where are the ones not pending but not closed that are working on offers? You don't have the goods to back up the swagger, bud!
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251438388]You're still missing a bunch. Where are the pendings that are older than 30 days? What about the ones that are closed so far in August? Where are the ones not pending but not closed that are working on offers? You don't have the goods to back up the swagger, bud!</blockquote>


What about the ones that got foreclosed on in August?



And if you say the pendings are so much higher and the sales for August so great, then you have access to the MLS, so shut up and post them. PROVE IT! Otherwise you are all talk, with very little to say. And I do have the goods to back it up, time for you to show us that you do. Post the stats or go away, because you are not adding anything to this thread except for words of nothingness.
 
I've been watching how you treat people (like Robert), so I was expecting that nothing reply of yours. Your "analysis" was a little short on the "ysis". Stop berating people who know as much or more than you do. Why don't you impress us all with your credentials like you were asked to do? No identifying info, just experience and credentials?
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1251439253]I've been watching how you treat people (like Robert), so I was expecting that nothing reply of yours. Your "analysis" was a little short on the "ysis". Stop berating people who know as much or more than you do. Why don't you impress us all with your credentials like you were asked to do? No identifying info, just experience and credentials?</blockquote>


You post the numbers I am asking for, and then I will teach you how to use the search function to find my credentials, that you would easily find if you weren't so lazy (ironically just as lazy as Robert is) to not use the search function.
 
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