Well written...why Housing won't bottom

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program

optimusprime_IHB

New member
Until at the earliest 2010...

http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/?p=413

A little bit of it...

San Diego Real Estate … The Coming Next Wave of Foreclosures

by bob711 — published on July 17th, 2008

San Diego real estate foreclosuresThe first wave of foreclosures occurred due to the re-setting of some "sub-prime" loans. These loans were predominantly the 80/20 loans that were used to assist buyers to obtain property with no down payment. Later in the cycle of the origination of these loans, the documentation requirements were lessened considerably, so that by 2005, buyers were able to obtain 80/20 loans to purchase property with little- to no-income documentation. Buyers speculated on properties increasing in value and had little regard for the payments. As the loans re-set (usually 2-3 years later), the buyers found themselves unable to make the payments or unable to refinance, and the properties ended up in foreclosure.

Here's what we need to understand about these loans:

1. Is that they were spread across the United States (demographic and geographic distribution) and

2. There were a lot of them done for buyers buying new homes. In San Diego, we are seeing the results of these loans as properties in newly constructed developments (Eastlake, San Marcos, Condo conversions, etc.) are defaulting in high numbers. However, the buyers of these properties generally DID understand that the loan would convert or "adjust" after an initial 2-3 (in some cases 5) year period. Further research suggests, however, that these buyers were not necessarily defaulting due to rising payments (the Fed has reduced short term rates significantly, thereby reducing the impact of the adjustment) but rather were defaulting to rid themselves of a negative equity position.
 
This is basically what Economist Christopher Thornberg has been saying for 5 years. He's a better authority on home valuations than a realtor. If you want the best and most accurate advice read his writings.
 
Cramer said today that financials and housing have bottomed and commodities have peaked. Do I agree with Cramer? Not so much.
 
norcaljeff said:
This is basically what Economist Christopher Thornberg has been saying for 5 years. He's a better authority on home valuations than a realtor. If you want the best and most accurate advice read his writings.
do u mind sharing his writings or links?
 
awgee said:
Cramer said today that financials and housing have bottomed and commodities have peaked. Do I agree with Cramer? Not so much.

time to short financials and housing and load up on commodities, then....
 
stepping_up said:
awgee said:
Cramer said today that financials and housing have bottomed and commodities have peaked. Do I agree with Cramer? Not so much.

time to short financials and housing and load up on commodities, then....
On 5/16/07 Jimmy recommended these gems...

Coldwater Creek (CWTR): "is a best-of-breed company" and has room to grow.

http://img108.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramercwtr-4bdw69785.gif

Whole Foods (WFMI): Although WFMI enjoyed an excellent quarter, the stock has declined somewhat, and is a good buy.

A good short term play, but gawd help you if you held the stock...

http://img901.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramerwtfi-4bdw6puyd.gif

If you didn't take advantage of the Cramer pop, then you lose...

http://img702.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramersbux-4bdw7h7y4.gif



Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C):Cramer told his listeners not to be overly concerned with the huge macroeconomic numbers that are appearing, or with the consumer price index report that is coming out. BAC experienced a large buyback, offers 4% dividend, and is worth buying in increments. The second portion should be purchased according to the inflation measure and if the price declines.


http://img107.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramerbac-4bdwckzga.gif

http://img107.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramerc-4bdwcz5oa.gif

His bearish calls... you could have made some mad money going against the grain at the time...

http://img801.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramererts-4bdwdt865.gif

http://img802.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramerebay-4bdwelbl5.gif

His best call of them all... but of course if you listened to the likes of Ken Heebner and others like him, you would know this was a good pick.

http://img801.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramerslb-4bdwf2fy7.gif

Now... if you listened to us nutty IHBers like awgee and myself, and bought GLD, shorted financials and the market as a whole...

http://img702.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramerantigld-4bdwg3y4j.gif

http://img902.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramerantiskf-4bdwgjygd.gif

http://img107.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/08/02/cramer2antisds-4bdwgyz3g.gif

Now... I am not saying you should get your investment advice from the nutters here on IHB. But please, seriously, gawd please... do not go with Cramer. You would have better luck throwing darts at the WSJ than you would trying to find the one gem of Cramer's. Around the same time he was recommending CFC and CROX. With those picks I would rather give my money to the homeless guy at the freeway offramp than throw it away on his picks, at least someone benefits that way.
 
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