UCLA sees 16% home-price gain in 2010

2

25inIrvine_IHB

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<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/29/16-percent-gain-forecast/41779/">http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/29/16-percent-gain-forecast/41779/</a>





I can't find details of the forecast on the UCLA website, so if anyone finds it, please post.





Even if I was an optimist on housing, I couldn't predict double digit growth in one year



Here is a couple of the interesting things to me:



"?That mortgage interest rates will remain low. Southern California rates likely will be below 6% through 2015, the forecast said."



"?That commercial real estate will be hampered by high unemployment through 2010, with recovery not expected until around 2011."



So commercial real estate will be hampered by high unemployment but residential won't?
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1256863253]Can someone point to a forecast from UCLA that was even in the same ballpark as reality?</blockquote>


Yes, <a href="http://beaconeconomics.com/">back before they fired Chris for being too bearish</a>, they actually had realistic reports. But the sponsors (banks/builders) didn't like hearing the bad news, so they brought in Mark Schniepp to stroke... their um... egos... because the sponsors have paid him to say nice things about them outside of the forecast. Truly the most biased report you can find now is the UCLA report.
 
Here's how it's been though: $600k median price - 40% = $360,000. That's a loss of $240,000. Today it's a $360,000 selling for $432,000 or a gain of 20%. A $240,000 loss with a $72,000 gain is still a loss last time I checked. What they are missing is that the bottom priced homes will rise while the middle to higher priced homes will continue to deflate.



My .02c



Soylent Green Is People
 
From the chart, we'll be back to peak bubble pricing in 5 short years. No way, no how, not gonna happen.



I'm waiting for one of these clowns to put their money where their mouth is. If 16% is in the bag, why not go out and buy 10 houses?



The said fact is that many of the zombies out there believe these idiots...he is actually from UCLA. This makes me want to puke.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1256864355][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1256863253]Can someone point to a forecast from UCLA that was even in the same ballpark as reality?</blockquote>


Yes, <a href="http://beaconeconomics.com/">back before they fired Chris for being too bearish</a>, they actually had realistic reports. But the sponsors (banks/builders) didn't like hearing the bad news, so they brought in Mark Schniepp to stroke... their um... egos... because the sponsors have paid him to say nice things about them outside of the forecast. Truly the most biased report you can find now is the UCLA report.</blockquote>


Here are the Anderson Forecast archives. I am far less than impressed, though I see the break after Thornburg's departure in 2007



http://www.uclaforecast.com/contents/archive/archive.asp



This is my favorite:



UCLA Anderson Forecast Affirms No Recession

But a Very Subprime Outlook

UCLA Anderson Forecast

June 18, 2008



WTF?
 
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