South Pasadena Pricing

tmare_IHB

tmare_IHB

New member
Does anyone follow prices in the So. Pas. area? A relative bought an overpriced shack (actually a nice house that was cut in half) and has insisted repeatedly that it will not go down in price. She has told me that prices in her area went up slightly last year. I'm sure this is another case of "the high end never goes down" philosophy that is getting so beat up as we speak in the beach areas of Orange County, but I'm not real savvy when it comes to finding the actual data like some around here. I'm really just curious what the predictions are for this area even though I can't really see that they would be any different than other areas of LA. It seems that this area has the same type of school district issues as Irvine, meaning that the quality of the school district makes it a desirable place to live (it's not a part of LAUSD). Any info/predictions would be welcome.
 
[quote author="tmare" date=1242468711]Does anyone follow prices in the So. Pas. area? A relative bought an overpriced shack (actually a nice house that was cut in half) and has insisted repeatedly that it will not go down in price. She has told me that prices in her area went up slightly last year. I'm sure this is another case of "the high end never goes down" philosophy that is getting so beat up as we speak in the beach areas of Orange County, but I'm not real savvy when it comes to finding the actual data like some around here. I'm really just curious what the predictions are for this area even though I can't really see that they would be any different than other areas of LA. It seems that this area has the same type of school district issues as Irvine, meaning that the quality of the school district makes it a desirable place to live (it's not a part of LAUSD). Any info/predictions would be welcome.</blockquote>


tmare -



If you send me the zip code, I can send you an excel spreadsheet export with all of the MLS info for that area since (pick a date) if you like...



Caveat: I know nothing about South Pasadena, so I won't even <u>attempt </u>to clean up the data.



Thank you,

-IR2



edit to add foreclosureradar screenshots



for So. Pas. :

<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/SouthPasadena05152009.JPG" alt="" />



and for Pasadena :

<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/Pasadena05152009.JPG" alt="" />
 
So there's only one bank owned house in all of South Pasadena? That would support a belief that price might not fall much there.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1242479404]So there's only one bank owned house in all of South Pasadena? That would support a belief that price might not fall much there.</blockquote>


It will still get dragged down by the surrounding neighborhoods.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242514012][quote author="Geotpf" date=1242479404]So there's only one bank owned house in all of South Pasadena? That would support a belief that price might not fall much there.</blockquote>


It will still get dragged down by the surrounding neighborhoods.</blockquote>


I don't know about that. South Pasadena and San Marino seem to be their own market, due to the schools. Pasadena, North Alhambra, and North San Gabriel all border South Pas and San Marino, and while these immediately bordering neighborhoods have homes and streets just as great as either So Pas or San Marino --- the home prices drop hundreds of thousands of dollars when you cross school district lines. I know of what I speak, South Pas and San Marino were our original targets when we moved back to So Cal 4 years ago after a stint in the Bay Area. Irvine was a distant 3rd option. Price of admission was too steep up there, we ended up here.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1242520809][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242514012][quote author="Geotpf" date=1242479404]So there's only one bank owned house in all of South Pasadena? That would support a belief that price might not fall much there.</blockquote>


It will still get dragged down by the surrounding neighborhoods.</blockquote>


I don't know about that. South Pasadena and San Marino seem to be their own market, due to the schools. Pasadena, North Alhambra, and North San Gabriel all border South Pas and San Marino, and while these immediately bordering neighborhoods have homes and streets just as great as either So Pas or San Marino --- the home prices drop hundreds of thousands of dollars when you cross school district lines. I know of what I speak, South Pas and San Marino were our original targets when we moved back to So Cal 4 years ago after a stint in the Bay Area. Irvine was a distant 3rd option. Price of admission was too steep up there, we ended up here.</blockquote>


I am going to agree with you on San Marino, but I am going to disagree with you on the surrounding cities. The problem with the FR map Deuce provided is that it was just for Pasadena, and not a map search, so the surrounding cities were excluded. Now, I searched the same map as Deuce's search, and I got nearly 3000 results, and FR would only show 500, so it still didn't look that bad. Here is what it looks like when you zoom into San Marino...



It looks like they under attack from the foreclosure terrorists, and have the necessary equipment to fight them back and keep them away from their fort.



http://i42.tinypic.com/25hekbo.jpg



When you scroll further south, you see that they are beginning to be taken over by the foreclosure terrorists, and adding more troops (green dots) daily.



http://i42.tinypic.com/6f439h.jpg



It appears that San Marino is safe for now, but their front lines have been completely rolled over and a few will eventually break through for an attack, albeit small. While San Marino will probably keep jager drinking riff raff like yourself out, the surrounding areas might let you sneak in, just bring a bottle of wine to give them a head fake.
 
South Pasadena, San Marino, Arcadia and La Canada are the four main cities in that general LA vicinity with very desirable school districts. To say that any of these four cities has bottomed or will see a bottom within this year is simply inaccurate. I follow listings for these four cities literally on a daily basis. Properties that are priced appropriately do sell fairly quickly. However, there are still way too many WTF pricing in all four cities. In the end, it all comes down to affordability. The local household incomes of those respective cities simply do not (and cannot) support those WTF asking prices. Inventory has slowly crept up over the past 12 months. Yo do not necessarily need foreclosures to drive down property values. There is also the theory that foreign (Chinese) money will prop up those markets. But as we've seen in past real estate cycles, it has not been the case. Same has been said for Irvine, but look at the falling prices in Irvine now and going forward. For those of you who are looking to buy in any of the four cities, I recommend just being patient. As most of you may already know, the "high end" is not immune. It is simply lagging in the price adjustment.
 
^^^ This newbie rocks! Spoken like someone who has actually taken the time to read here. Wait... he isn't new, he joined in 2007. WTF? Dude, you gotta post more often.
 
Thanks, everyone for confirming what I already suspected (or knew). It's not that I want my sis-in-laws property to go down in value because that is truly the last thing she needs, it's just that I know too much from being around here to even try to believe otherwise. I guess it's better to have bought in an area like So. Pas. then somewhere else but I have a suspicion that she is going to need to move within the next few years and I think she should probably get out now. How to tell her that is another story.
 
[quote author="tmare" date=1242564746] How to tell her that is another story.</blockquote>


I can give you some pointers......



<img src="http://www.davebumba.com/articles/house4.jpg" alt="" />



......unless you want to continue the relationship with you SIL, in that case you might want to NOT come to me for advice.



Seriously, the direct path is best.
 
I have been watching these areas as well. Last year I did a melissa data search and started looking up downpayments on the peak pricing sales. The vast majority in south pas put down 40-60%. A huge bummer. I had been counting on a wave of foreclosures to come through the area.



That being said, the rental market is showing signs of weakness, as is the sale market. I think the above 2 million range, and the crappy places are going to get hammered. But anything nice with a yard has still been turning over pretty rapidly. A tudor just came up (I was actually talking about it in another thread) for 1.4 million in the north of the 110 estate area and went off market within 4 days. It was a 2008 foreclosure resale. It's neighbor sold for 2.5 million just a few years ago. However, it seems like these sort of sales aren't the comp killers they should be. A condo in the Meridian village got foreclosed on for 675k, and the same exact type unit came on the market and sold almost instantly for 750k.



Also, the one million dollar joints are at rental parity for today's interest rates. An upgraded 2000+ square foot house with a yard rents for $4500 a mos it seems. 3 bedrooms all seem to start at about $3250. Large, nice 3 bedroom condos are $3250. Please correct me if I'm wrong on these rental rates!
 
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