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25w100k+ said:
but rates are going down....
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They went down in 93 too. How did that work out for 95 and 96? I swear the dejavu I am having is way more intense than I remember.

It's not different this time, and in fact it is a whole hell of a lot worse.
 
Remember the Fed took back its early 90 rate cuts with a vengeance. In 1994 the fed raised interest rates 300 basis points in 12 months. That is 3% folks. Sent OC into bankruptcy when they got caught with a huge carry trade....the more things change, the more they stay the same.
 
So it is and will be different this time?

morekaos said:
Remember the Fed took back its early 90 rate cuts with a vengeance. In 1994 the fed raised interest rates 300 basis points in 12 months. That is 3% folks. Sent OC into bankruptcy when they got caught with a huge carry trade....the more things change, the more they stay the same.
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I think those piling into the Treasury market are going to get a nasty surprise down the road when the fed has to take back these cuts with a vengeance. Just ask Robert Citroen
 
If you're playing with borrowed money that you cannot pay back.

Who are "those" that you are referring too?

morekaos said:
I think those piling into the Treasury market are going to get a nasty surprise down the road when the fed has to take back these cuts with a vengeance. Just ask Robert Citroen
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"Those" is the billions of dollars buying T-bills at negative rates of return. "Those" are individuals and institutions buying 30 year Treasuries with a 2.935% return. "Those" are all the panicky dollars yearning for safety. They will all get crushed.
 
Do you think the FED knew or didnt care that raising interest rates 300 points would/did send OC into bankruptcy? Or is it mismanagement of the funds by OC?

If the FED did know what they were doing, are you saying that they would do the same thing this time around? With the whole whole in the same boat? It really is different this time around. You just have to look at the effort put forth. That's the reality.

How people describe their actions...

When the outcome is good, you timed it right.

When the outcome is bad, you panicked.

morekaos said:
"Those" is the billions of dollars buying T-bills at negative rates of return. "Those" are individuals and institutions buying 30 year Treasuries with a 2.935% return. "Those" are all the panicky dollars yearning for safety. They will all get crushed.
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Fed didn't care. Those that hold open Carry trades when the winds are blowing for higher rates deserve what they get. Citroen was a fool
 
morekaos said:
Fed didn't care. Those that hold open Carry trades when the winds are blowing for higher rates deserve what they get. Citroen was a fool
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Funny part is that those trades that Citroen made would have made the County hundreds of millions if they weren't stopped out via margin calls.
 
That is true, they eventually made money if he was allowed to hold them and not mark to market. Mark to market is one of the laws that destroy the short term money by choking off the long term holders..we never learn
 
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