Prelude to a Meltdown

[ns2524_IHB]

<p>Country wide reported earnings:</p>

<p>"This is a huge battleship and it's headed in the wrong direction," Chief Executive Angelo R. Mozilo said during a lengthy conference call with Wall Street analysts. </p>

<p>"Looking to the second half of 2007, we expect difficult housing and mortgage market conditions to persist," he said. </p>

<p>The news sent shares of the Calabasas-based company sliding $3.56, or 10.45 percent, to close at $30.50 on Tuesday. </p>

<p>The rise in credit-related costs were primarily related to the company's investments in prime home equity loans, Mozilo said. </p>

<p>Unlike subprime loans, which target borrowers with spotty credit histories, prime loans are typically available only to those with solid credit profiles who are considered less risky. ALL HOME BUILDERS ARE SETTING AT 52 WEEKS LOWS.</p>





Symbol Name Change Trade 52-wk Range





CFC COUNTRYWIDE FNL CP -3.56 10.45% 30.50 32.20 - 45.26



BZH BEAZER HOMES USA INC -1.97 10.50% 16.79 16.56 - 48.60

CTX CENTEX CP - 1.43 3.53% 39.04 39.33 - 58.42

DHI D R HORTON INC -0.88 4.79% 17.50 18.30 - 31.13

HOV HOVNANIAN ENT INC -0.75 4.92% 14.50 15.23 - 38.66

KBH KB HOME -1.354.02% 32.20 33.54 - 56.08

LEN LENNAR CP CL A -0.39 1.21% 31.93 32.22 - 56.54

MTH MERITAGE HOMES CORP -1.09 4.84% 21.44 22.50 - 51.11

PHM PULTE HOMES, INC. -0.78 3.67% 20.46 21.17 - 35.56

RYL RYLAND GROUP INC -1.34 3.94% 32.70 33.76 - 60.13

SPF STANDARD PACIFIC LP - 0.24 7.25% 15.87 17.01 - 30.52

TOL TOLL BROTHERS INC -1.13 4.57% 23.62 24.49 - 35.64

 

[effenheimer_IHB]

<p>MDC announces tomorrow... They still have a little wiggle-room....</p>

<p>Open: 47.17 High: 47.17 52Wk High: 60.34</p>

<p>Close: 46.23 Low: 45.35 52Wk Low: 39.26</p>

 

[awgee_IHB]

Some more lenders and CDO merchants,<p><p>



MTG - down 6% today<p>

IndyMac - down 5% today<p>

Bear Stearns - down 3% today<p>

Lehman Bros. - down 3% today<p>

Washington Mutual, Downey Savings, Goldman Sachs all down lots.<p><p>



And from what I read, corporate bond liquidity is drying up fast. So much for the rest of the derivative market being insulated.

 

[effenheimer_IHB]

Anyone have a near-real time source for USD-JPY quotes?

 

[awgee_IHB]

<p>oc_flip</p>

<p><a href="http://www.kitco.com">www.kitco.com</a> for the USD-Yen quote</p>

 

[graphrix_IHB]

<p>I have a <a href="http://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/client/index.jsp">thinkorswim</a> account that I have never funded. I need to get a better idea of how it works. Anyway I have had it for awhile now and they have real time FX quotes. The software download is free and they just send out an email about once a quarter asking me to fund it. I like just having it and I have heard that between them and Interactive Brokers they are the best trading platform.</p>

<p>Just by watching USD/JPY quotes in the time it took to type this I could have made $1k by trading one lot. It is very active and very fast. Now I know why currency traders have high suicide rates. </p>

 

[SDRenter_IHB]

Does anyone have the complete text of Mozillo's conference call ?

 

[graphrix_IHB]

<p>gn,</p>

<p>You can listen to it <a href="http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=CFC&script=1010&item_id=1590487">here</a>. Most conference calls won't have a written transcript afterwards.</p>

 

[bltserv_IHB]

<p>The highlight of the call is when Mozillo mentions "housing has not seen this type depreciation</p>

<p>since the great depression". I wonder if he realized what impact that was going to have</p>

<p>on the market ? </p>

 

[joeyp_IHB]

Seeking alpha posts many conference call transcripts. Here's <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/42171">CFC's transcript.</a>