Prediction on housing prices in non bubble areas.

PANDA_IHB

New member
We all seem to know where the OC and Irvine housing market is headed for the next 2 - 4 years. However, In some of the non bubble real estate markets like Dallas, Austin, Atlanta, and Raliegh where the job base is still very strong, where do you guys think the prices are headed in the next 2 - 3 years? Flat or Down?



Here is what i read in the Forbes magazine and wanted to hear your opinion. I guess my question is: Are we going to see all the real estate prices in the entire country go down, or are we going to see some pockets of real estate prices appreciating during the next 2 - 4 years?



Article from Forbes Magazine



Forbes Magazine made some good predictions for Atlanta homebuilders and residents last week. While other cities, like Las Vegas and Phoenix are expected to see home prices decrease by up to 50%, Atlanta is predicted to see significant increases as early as 2009. (This reiterates that NOW is the time to buy Atlanta Real Estate. Discounts on current new home inventory are available now. They won?t last forever!)



Although Forbes mentions the number of Atlanta foreclosures in early 2008, our continued steady job growth rate promises an end to our housing slump. In fact, next year home starts are expected to jump up by 32.5% for single family homes around the metro Atlanta area. Multi-family home prices are expected to rise by as much as 18.4% and job growth will remain around the steady 2% yearly increase that has kept Atlanta afloat and the envy of the nation. We are placed at number nine in the group of ten ?lucky cities? that are predicted to experience long term recovery that will begin next year. Other cities where home prices are expected to rise include Oklahoma City, Minneapolis, Colorado Springs, Salt Lake City, Austin, Portland, San Antonio, Charlotte, and Albuquerque. So while times may seem tough now, if we can just hold out for a little while longer, things should be looking up for the economy and the Atlanta housing market once again.
 
http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/25/housing-prices-rising-forbeslife-cx_mw_0825realestate.html



Here is also another interesting link i found... where you can compare real estate price by the city back to 1982.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/08/25/business/20070826_HOUSING_GRAPHIC.html#



Does any one have any stats to which U.S. cities actually had home appreciation in 2008? I can only think of Dallas and Austin, TX being one of those cities. Going forward into 2009, which cities have the best potential for their real estate prices to be either flat or slightly appreciate. I've heard that Atlanta, Austin, Raliegh, and Dallas still have strong job bases during this economic downturn.



Any thoughts?
 
Which of the following (non-bubble) cities do you think have the best chance of appreciating in 2009? Give me your top three picks.



1) Albuquerque, NM

2) Charlotte, NC

3) San Antonio, TX

4) Portland, OR

5) Austin, Texas

6) Salt Lake City, Utah

7) Colorado Springs, CO

8) Minneapolis, Minn.

9) Atlanta, GA

10) Oklahoma City, OK

11) Dallas, TX
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1229926661]While other cities, like Las Vegas and Phoenix are expected to see home prices decrease by up to 50%, </blockquote>


Are they suggesting that Las Vegas still has an additional 50% fall from current prices?
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1229929312]Which of the following (non-bubble) cities do you think have the best chance of appreciating in 2009? Give me your top three picks.



1) Albuquerque, NM

2) Charlotte, NC

3) San Antonio, TX

4) Portland, OR

5) Austin, Texas

6) Salt Lake City, Utah

7) Colorado Springs, CO

8) Minneapolis, Minn.

9) Atlanta, GA

10) Oklahoma City, OK

11) Dallas, TX</blockquote>


10, 8, 3



Do I get a prize if I win?
 
I think southwest towns with $/sq/ft under 100 like OK city, Dallas, Salt Lake will possibly outperform.



portland, austin and colorado springs are probably still a little overpriced.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1229929716]

Are they suggesting that Las Vegas still has an additional 50% fall from current prices?</blockquote>


I more wonder if the huge project on the strip (mirage, maybe?) will get mothballed.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1229929716][quote author="PANDA" date=1229926661]While other cities, like Las Vegas and Phoenix are expected to see home prices decrease by up to 50%, </blockquote>


Are they suggesting that Las Vegas still has an additional 50% fall from current prices?</blockquote>


By 2011 - 2013, it is quite possible. Although i don't see that happening with OC real estate prices from current levels, I can totally see that happening in Las Vegas.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1229929880]I think southwest towns with $/sq/ft under 100 like OK city, Dallas, Salt Lake will possibly outperform.



portland, austin and colorado springs are probably still a little overpriced.</blockquote>


According to housingtracker.net, Austin is up 6.5% in 2008 YTD, while OC took a dive by more 20%.



Holy Smokes!, Did home prices in Denver, Colorado REALLY appreciate by 20% in 2008? What the heck are they cooking in Denver, Colorado????



Median Home Price in Denver, Colorado. <- according to housingtracker.net

$241,000 01/01/2008

$300,000 11/15/2008



DANNGGG!!!!
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1229929975][quote author="ABC123" date=1229929716]

Are they suggesting that Las Vegas still has an additional 50% fall from current prices?</blockquote>


I more wonder if the huge project on the strip (mirage, maybe?) will get mothballed.</blockquote>


I read in businessweek that MGM had just sold a property to help finance the $9B Citycenter project. Not sure if that is what you are referring to. If it is, it doesnt sound like it will get mothballed.
 
[quote author="qwerty" date=1229949536][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1229929975][quote author="ABC123" date=1229929716]

Are they suggesting that Las Vegas still has an additional 50% fall from current prices?</blockquote>


I more wonder if the huge project on the strip (mirage, maybe?) will get mothballed.</blockquote>


I read in businessweek that MGM had just sold a property to help finance the $9B Citycenter project. Not sure if that is what you are referring to. If it is, it doesnt sound like it will get mothballed.</blockquote>
They sold Treasure Island for $750MM to Ruffin (former owner of the Frontier). They will do whatever it takes to finish off Citycenter. It'll be interesting what happens to the other properties on the strip when it opens at the end of next year.
 
[quote author="qwerty" date=1229949536][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1229929975][quote author="ABC123" date=1229929716]

Are they suggesting that Las Vegas still has an additional 50% fall from current prices?</blockquote>


I more wonder if the huge project on the strip (mirage, maybe?) will get mothballed.</blockquote>


I read in businessweek that MGM had just sold a property to help finance the $9B Citycenter project. Not sure if that is what you are referring to. If it is, it doesnt sound like it will get mothballed.</blockquote>


You can't mothball a project that big. By the time the economy recovers, the half finished project has decayed to the point it's cheaper to demo it than finish it.



<a href="http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?p=2990280">http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?p=2990280</a>
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1229930548][quote author="Hormiguero" date=1229929880]I think southwest towns with $/sq/ft under 100 like OK city, Dallas, Salt Lake will possibly outperform.



portland, austin and colorado springs are probably still a little overpriced.</blockquote>


According to housingtracker.net, Austin is up 6.5% in 2008 YTD, while OC took a dive by more 20%.



Holy Smokes!, Did home prices in Denver, Colorado REALLY appreciate by 20% in 2008? What the heck are they cooking in Denver, Colorado????



Median Home Price in Denver, Colorado. <- according to housingtracker.net

$241,000 01/01/2008

$300,000 11/15/2008



DANNGGG!!!!</blockquote>


Check out those property taxes in Austin and the rest of TX. They eat away any gains that come from appreciation. But hey... no state income tax! Woo hoo, too bad I don't work there, huh?



Denver is one of the most volatile housing markets in the nation. They were going down when everyone was going up, and they went down when everyone was going down too. I wouldn't touch Denver even with your money.
 
In regards to Austin, I just came across this post at Housing Doom:

<a href="http://housingdoom.com/2008/12/22/austin-housing-market-starting-its-journey-down/">http://housingdoom.com/2008/12/22/austin-housing-market-starting-its-journey-down/</a>
 
While bubble areas have farther to fall than non-bubble areas, the idea that the macro environment will impact some areas and not others is really quite absurd. Even if a region has a secure job base and isn't impacted by the numerous layoffs occurring everywhere, getting financing to buy a house is increasingly difficult. The law of supply and demand dictates that prices will go lower until equilibrium is found.
 
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