Natural Gas ETF

[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1257916566][quote author="PANDA" date=1257905932][quote author="BondTrader" date=1257903415][quote author="PANDA" date=1257829574][quote author="BondTrader" date=1257807221][quote author="BondTrader" date=1254875734]Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher, but today's market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it's just a game of greater fool.

Good luck</blockquote>


Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.</blockquote>


BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.</blockquote>


Good luck, I do expect the Sep low ($8.94) will hold at least for the short term. If you believe the trend is your friend, UNG is still in a big downward trend until it can break $15. I know you are an investor not a short term trader, just want to remind you don't go all in at once.</blockquote>


Thanks for the tip BT. I will place my first 1000 share order on UNG between $8.75 - $8.99. I will then start dollar cost averaging 1000 shares every 30 days. When this turns, I can see a 200 - 300% return.</blockquote>
Panda, sell 10 uncovered puts on UNG either for Nov or Dec. That way if it doesn't get below $9, you collect the premium....if it does go below $9 then your basis will be $9 minus the premium you collected.</blockquote>


A solid strategy, unless gas goes to 0 in a deflationary spiral..LOL :ahhh:
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1257905932][quote author="BondTrader" date=1257903415][quote author="PANDA" date=1257829574][quote author="BondTrader" date=1257807221][quote author="BondTrader" date=1254875734]Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher, but today's market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it's just a game of greater fool.

Good luck</blockquote>


Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.</blockquote>


BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.</blockquote>


Good luck, I do expect the Sep low ($8.94) will hold at least for the short term. If you believe the trend is your friend, UNG is still in a big downward trend until it can break $15. I know you are an investor not a short term trader, just want to remind you don't go all in at once.</blockquote>


Thanks for the tip BT. I will place my first 1000 share order on UNG between $8.75 - $8.99. I will then start dollar cost averaging 1000 shares every 30 days. When this turns, I can see a 200 - 300% return.</blockquote>


Make sure before you buy, you ask yourself how much you willing to lose on this. I really don't like the idea of cost averaging, you know I'm a firm believer of using stops. Anyways, be patient with it.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1257916566]Panda, sell 10 uncovered puts on UNG either for Nov or Dec. That way if it doesn't get below $9, you collect the premium....if it does go below $9 then your basis will be $9 minus the premium you collected.</blockquote>


Wouldn't it be better, at least from what Panda is saying his strategy is, to buy 1000 shares of UNG and then write 10 covered puts on his shares. And maybe buy some deep out of the money puts as a hedge. That way he collects the premium and cashes in on the upward swing of the shares.



Personally, uncovered anything is only for people with high risk tolerance and why some trading accounts do not allow for selling uncovered options. Not only that but trading in commodities is even more high risk, just ask Amaranth how their nat gas play went. Also, I wouldn't "recommend" any trade to anyone on the intarwebs, and I wouldn't follow anyone's recommendation either. Sharing ideas is one thing, but "recommending" and telling people how to trade is setting yourself up for trouble.
 
Rick,



What are you doing? Are you still holding and planning on buying more shares when UNG goes below $9.00? Graphix and T-man, I am not as smart as you guys as I have no idea what uncovering calls, puts, and premiums mean. I sort of just trust my instincts when i invest and try buy assets at a bargain price. I try not to listen to what CNBC and the media says to influence what i invest in. I had the same feeling when Oil was $40USD back in Jan 2009. It seemed like a no brainer. It just felt obvious to me that oil was undervalued when i was pumping gas for $1.99 a gallon. Same thing with currencies, when i was Seoul last March I knew it was a good time to diversify out of the U.S. dollar into strong foreign currencies, when i could have a nice kalbi dinner at a nice restaurant for under $10 bucks. Honestly, I dont' know anything about natural gas, except that it seems like the only dirt cheap commodity play right now. Bondtrader, if i buy into UNG, I am looking at a long term hold of 1-3 years.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1257924938]Rick,



What are you doing? Are you still holding and planning on buying more shares when UNG goes below $9.00? Graphix and T-man, I am not as smart as you guys as I have no idea what uncovering calls, puts, and premiums mean. I sort of just trust my instincts when i invest and try buy assets at a bargain price. I try not to listen to what CNBC and the media says to influence what i invest in. I had the same feeling when Oil was $40USD back in Jan 2009. It seemed like a no brainer. It just felt obvious to me that oil was undervalued when i was pumping gas for $1.99 a gallon. Same thing with currencies, when i was Seoul last March I knew it was a good time to diversify out of the U.S. dollar into strong foreign currencies, when i could have a nice kalbi dinner at a nice restaurant for under $10 bucks. Honestly, I dont' know anything about natural gas, except that it seems like the only dirt cheap commodity play right now. Bondtrader, if i buy into UNG, I am looking at a long term hold of 1-3 years.</blockquote>


Sold 1/2 my position at 11.25 still holding the rest with an average price of mid 9's. Will probably sell since I see better opportunities out there.



Making a killing day trading Intel.



BondTrader, what platform do you recommend for day trading. My brother uses TradeStation and is happy with it but that might be overkill for me.
 
[quote author="rick_r" date=1257942675]BondTrader, what platform do you recommend for day trading. My brother uses TradeStation and is happy with it but that might be overkill for me.</blockquote>


Sorry, not bondtrader, but you might want to check out <a href="https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/client/index.jsp">Think or Swim</a> if you are day trading and especially if you use options.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1257946755][quote author="rick_r" date=1257942675]BondTrader, what platform do you recommend for day trading. My brother uses TradeStation and is happy with it but that might be overkill for me.</blockquote>


Sorry, not bondtrader, but you might want to check out <a href="https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/client/index.jsp">Think or Swim</a> if you are day trading and especially if you use options.</blockquote>


Since I don't daytrade that much, I'm not in a position to recommend. But I did hear good things about TradeStation in the past.
 
Trade be nimble, trade be quick....



<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Natural-gas-plunges-12-apf-275249723.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset;=&ccode;=">Natural gas plunges 12 percent this month</a>
 
[quote author="zubs" date=1259816789]ung down to $8.66 / share as of 12/02/09. Time to buy it?</blockquote>


As I mentioned several times on this thread, UNG is a typical "DOG" stock with a long term down trend and no foundamental support. A couple quick thoughts on this;



1. At this level, technically you can catch a dead cat bounce from here to about 10.50-11 area, looks like a high probability trade

2. Ask yourself how much you want/can/afford to lose on this trade and put a stop loss in accordingly

3. S&P is close to the top and if you get a sell off, dog stocks will get hammered as well.



Good luck
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top