Johns Creek Homes and Real Estate
- Thread starter panda
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Irvinecommuter
New member
New data as to underwaterness of various counties:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-worst-markets-for-underwater-mortgages-2014-05-15
Irvinecommuter
New member
Baby Irvine said:
I have no idea...you can follow the link and look through realtrac.
http://www.realtytrac.com/mapsearch/ga/forsyth-county-foreclosures.html
panda
Well-known member
Irvinecommuter,
So you just copied and pasted the data as to under waterness of various counties. I think Forsyth County stats will be very interesting as there really isn't a bad part of Forsyth County. As I mentioned only the north Fulton is the really nice area which consists of Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Milton, Roswell, and Sandy Springs. Most of fulton county is not a very desirable place to live.
You have parts of Orange County that is not so nice like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, parts of Fullerton, and Westminster, but most of Orange County is desirable.
Orange County, California
% Seriously Underwater : 7%
Average LTV % 68%
2014 Home Appreciation % : 17%
Unemployment Rate : 5.2%
So you just copied and pasted the data as to under waterness of various counties. I think Forsyth County stats will be very interesting as there really isn't a bad part of Forsyth County. As I mentioned only the north Fulton is the really nice area which consists of Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Milton, Roswell, and Sandy Springs. Most of fulton county is not a very desirable place to live.
You have parts of Orange County that is not so nice like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, parts of Fullerton, and Westminster, but most of Orange County is desirable.
Orange County, California
% Seriously Underwater : 7%
Average LTV % 68%
2014 Home Appreciation % : 17%
Unemployment Rate : 5.2%
Irvinecommuter
New member
Baby Irvine said:
Yes...that's why I provided the link. You're the real estate agent. You should have access to realtytrac. A lot of foreclosure activity and bankowned properties in the area according to realtrac.
http://www.realtytrac.com/map/ga/forsyth-county/#cp=34.1692852008757;-84.12571716308594&lvl=13&sty=r&srange=3&page=1&sort=featured,asc&tabs=PreForeclosure,Auction,LiveAuction,OnlineAuction,BankOwned,REO,GovernmentOwned
According this article:
http://www.journalnow.com/business/...cle_ce4b8ffe-247d-57f3-a702-20e5ab3f3bc6.html
also..about half of OC is "not so nice" North OC is pretty blue collar while Central and South OC are more affluent. However, there are plenty of areas like Foothill Ranch and Ladera Ranch that sustained a lot of damage during the rescission. It has just made a good recovery.
The most impressive stat is the 68% LTV rate. That means there is plenty of equity. All the FCBs probably helped with that stat.
panda
Well-known member
Irvinecommuter, we were debating before emerging city vs developed city. Do you see any correlation with the data below? The appreciation was small increments in the 90s to acceleration in 2000s in Irvine.
Irvine population
Year Population % Growth
1971 10,081 - Year of Incorporation
1980 62,127 616%
1990 110,330 78%
2000 143,072 30%
2010 212,375 48%
2020 308,943 45%
Irvine Median home price history:
1988 $216,464
1989 $237,410
1990 $239,024
1991 $242,877
1992 $237,451
1993 $230,598
1994 $228,529
1995 $229,959
1996 $246,865
1997 $245,437
1998 $263,172
1999 $278,148
2000 $308,089
2001 $334,741
2002 $379,852
2003 $461,888
2004 $609,397
2005 $635,675
2006 $722,928
2007 $665,807
Irvine population
Year Population % Growth
1971 10,081 - Year of Incorporation
1980 62,127 616%
1990 110,330 78%
2000 143,072 30%
2010 212,375 48%
2020 308,943 45%
Irvine Median home price history:
1988 $216,464
1989 $237,410
1990 $239,024
1991 $242,877
1992 $237,451
1993 $230,598
1994 $228,529
1995 $229,959
1996 $246,865
1997 $245,437
1998 $263,172
1999 $278,148
2000 $308,089
2001 $334,741
2002 $379,852
2003 $461,888
2004 $609,397
2005 $635,675
2006 $722,928
2007 $665,807
Irvinecommuter
New member
Zillow data:
Irvine:
9.9 out of 10 on the Zillow Market Health Index (whatever that means).
http://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/
Also a boatload of city data: http://www.city-data.com/city/Irvine-California.html
Forsth County:
6.6 on the Market Health Index. 107 days for listings on Zillow.
http://www.zillow.com/forsyth-county-ga/home-values/
city-data: http://www.city-data.com/county/Forsyth_County-GA.html
The internet is cool
Irvine:
9.9 out of 10 on the Zillow Market Health Index (whatever that means).
http://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/
Also a boatload of city data: http://www.city-data.com/city/Irvine-California.html
Forsth County:
6.6 on the Market Health Index. 107 days for listings on Zillow.
http://www.zillow.com/forsyth-county-ga/home-values/
city-data: http://www.city-data.com/county/Forsyth_County-GA.html
The internet is cool
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
@Baby Irvine:
Not sure how good your Hot Tub Time Machine is.
Remember your Dow call?
Not sure how good your Hot Tub Time Machine is.
Remember your Dow call?
Irvinecommuter
New member
Baby Irvine said:
No...I don't see a correlation. Just because it happens in Irvine doesn't mean it happens in Forsyth County. In fact, the increase in RE price is largely economically driven. Of course, the recent run up in Irvine home price are because of FCBs...I don't think that's a significant factor in your area.
As I stated before...the bulk of the population increases for most of the area you speak of occurred in the early 2000s...growth has slowed in the past 5-6 years. How many new construction homes/communities are occurring in your area? In Irvine, Stonegate (3,000 units), Cypress Village (3,500 units), PP (10,000 units), Orchard Hills, and Jeffrey 5B are all coming on board in the next 5-7 years.
According to internet records:
Forsyth County grew about 11.3% between 2010 and 2013.
175,511 to 195,405
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/13/13117.html
Irvine went from 212,375 to 242,651 or about 12.5%
panda
Well-known member
Irvinecommuter,
I don't think you are understanding the canvass of Forsyth real estate as I just don't have the time to explain it right now. I have to break down area for you to understand. Not all part of Forsyth County is equal as the inventory in North Forsyth is very different from the inventory and demand of south forsyth. Builders cannot build fast enough to support the population growth in south forsyth. Internet alone, you will not know what is really happening here nor would you have insider information. You have to live and breath the local market.
I don't think you are understanding the canvass of Forsyth real estate as I just don't have the time to explain it right now. I have to break down area for you to understand. Not all part of Forsyth County is equal as the inventory in North Forsyth is very different from the inventory and demand of south forsyth. Builders cannot build fast enough to support the population growth in south forsyth. Internet alone, you will not know what is really happening here nor would you have insider information. You have to live and breath the local market.
Irvinecommuter said:
panda
Well-known member
Do you remember my fortune cookie I posted up on Talk Irvine 3 years ago.
How Panda will do much better in real estate, than he will in stocks?
Ok I will fess up.. I would have never guessed in a million years that the DOW will reach 16k. OK. you happy
How Panda will do much better in real estate, than he will in stocks?
Ok I will fess up.. I would have never guessed in a million years that the DOW will reach 16k. OK. you happy
irvinehomeowner said:@Baby Irvine:
Not sure how good your Hot Tub Time Machine is.
Remember your Dow call?
Irvinecommuter
New member
Baby Irvine said:
Seriously...you keep moving the goal posts. Whatever, it's your town. Glad to hearing it goes well for you. I do think that your view of what is going to happen in your area is highly optimistic. Even if you get the growth that you believe will happen, median income will likely drop. You will still have pockets of high income earners but it is unlikely that you will have sufficient high wage earners in Georgia to sustain the median income level. It's not a knock on the area, it's just a numbers game. You also lack the FCB interest that Irvine is getting in the past several years.
Georgia has 9.92 million people. California has 38.04 million.
panda
Well-known member
Irvinecommuter,
I am first an investor and secondly a real estate broker, not a friendly real estate agent.
"Even if you get the growth that you believe will happen, median income will likely drop."
Can you explain why you think that? Are you talking about Georgia, North Atlanta, Johns Creek, Forsyth County? Forsyth County is the 19th wealthiest county in the nation and median income and per capital income continues to get higher. Please explain why you think median income will likely drop or cannot be sustained?
"You will still have pockets of high income earners but it is unlikely that you will have sufficient high wage earners in Georgia to sustain the median income level."
Again why? Did you see the stats I provided you the 300% increase of $200k - $500k earners in the last 3 years in Johns Creek? Johns Creek per capital income and median income is much higher than that of Irvine. So Please explain to me as to why?
"You also lack the FCB interest that Irvine is getting in the past several years."
IF an FCB investor bought 10 SFRs in Irvine in mid 1990s, would you consider him to be smart. I would believe so. Are the FCBers today smart for putting down $1 million dollars cash for 1900 sq ft house in Irvine today? Are there the minority FCBs, who go against the FCB herd, looking to invest in emerging real estate markets rather than developed RE markets. I believe so. I don't believe the FCBs in Irvine are necessarily the smartest when it comes to money or they know how to invest.
"Georgia has 9.92 million people. California has 38.04 million."
Yes, Georgia is only 1/4 the size of California in population. The significant stats in the last 10 years is that the Atlanta metro grew over a million in population whereas LA/OC metro only grew less than half of Atlanta metro.
I am first an investor and secondly a real estate broker, not a friendly real estate agent.
"Even if you get the growth that you believe will happen, median income will likely drop."
Can you explain why you think that? Are you talking about Georgia, North Atlanta, Johns Creek, Forsyth County? Forsyth County is the 19th wealthiest county in the nation and median income and per capital income continues to get higher. Please explain why you think median income will likely drop or cannot be sustained?
"You will still have pockets of high income earners but it is unlikely that you will have sufficient high wage earners in Georgia to sustain the median income level."
Again why? Did you see the stats I provided you the 300% increase of $200k - $500k earners in the last 3 years in Johns Creek? Johns Creek per capital income and median income is much higher than that of Irvine. So Please explain to me as to why?
"You also lack the FCB interest that Irvine is getting in the past several years."
IF an FCB investor bought 10 SFRs in Irvine in mid 1990s, would you consider him to be smart. I would believe so. Are the FCBers today smart for putting down $1 million dollars cash for 1900 sq ft house in Irvine today? Are there the minority FCBs, who go against the FCB herd, looking to invest in emerging real estate markets rather than developed RE markets. I believe so. I don't believe the FCBs in Irvine are necessarily the smartest when it comes to money or they know how to invest.
"Georgia has 9.92 million people. California has 38.04 million."
Yes, Georgia is only 1/4 the size of California in population. The significant stats in the last 10 years is that the Atlanta metro grew over a million in population whereas LA/OC metro only grew less than half of Atlanta metro.
Irvinecommuter said:
Irvinecommuter
New member
BI,
1) You are not comparing apples to apples. You keep shifting between Forysthe/Fulton County and John's Creek as if they are interchangeable but they're not. John's Creek is high end of the income bracket for Fulton County. It would like saying that Turtle Rock is representative of Irvine (which is is not).
In Georgia, approximately 9% of the population makes more than $150K a year. Approximately 15% of the population in Fulton County makes above $150,000K a year. Forsyth County has about 24%. In JC, that number jumps to 31%. This means that JC already has a disproportionate number of high wage income earners than Georgia or the local area.
Thus, not only would Georgia have to continue to attract high wage earners, the bulk of those earners would have to choose to live in JC.
2) Georgia's growth rate has significantly slowed down. The growth rate for population change between 2010 and 2013 was 3.1%.. or about 1% a year. The growth rate was about 1.8% a year between 1980 and 1990, 2.6% a year between 1990 and 2000, and about 1.8% a year between 2000 and 2010.
Growth rates are not exponential or consistent. They usually boom and then stay flat. Georgia had its growth spurt in the last 30 years and are beginning to flatten out. Georgia is not super unique amongst states like California, Florida, New York, or Texas are. It doesn't have a geographic advantage like those 4 states and not a traditional business base. There are no inherent advantages for a business to be in Georgia like there is for those four states.
3) There is a numbers game issue. There is finite number of jobs that pays above $100K.
Irvine has 240,000 people. 32% of people living in Irvine have income make more than $150,000. That's about 76,800, basically the entire population of John's Creek. 23.4% of Irvine resident make between $100 to 150K, or about 56,000 people.
Forsyth County has about 190,000 people with 24% of the people making over $150K and 25.88% of the people making between $100 to 150K, which breaks down to about 45,600 and 49,000.
John's Creek has 80,000. JC's has about 31% make above $150,000 and 22% between $100K to 150K, which breaks down to about 24,800 and 17,600.
4) Irvine has a significant student population and is younger demographically. This matter as to income. Most of those between 20-24 are making little to no money. 25 to 34 is about when people start making good money. 35-54 is maximum earning age period.
Irvine: Median age is 33.9
20 to 24 years 9.59%
25 to 34 years 15.80%
35 to 44 years 15.59%
45 to 54 years 14.05%
55 to 64 years 10.05%
Irvine has about 30% of the population in prime earning age (close to the percentage making over $150K).
JC: Median age is 38.
20 to 24 years 2,672 3.48%
25 to 34 years 6,506 8.48%
35 to 44 years 13,739 17.91%
45 to 54 years 15,196 19.81%
55 to 64 years 8,150 10.62%
JC has 37%.
What does this mean? It means that a lot of young people are moving in Irvine as they are making their way up and their earning potential is going to grow in the next 10-15 years. JC, on the other hands, are populated by people who are already established.
5) You don't understand FCBs at all. The fact that they are FCBs means that they are not investors. They buy houses to live in, not to invest in. FCBs make their money overseas (usually China) and park their money and families here. The vast majority of FCB buyers come to Orange County and especially Irvine. Also, FCB don't show up in income surveys because they technically don't make money in the US and are not very likely to participate in census surveys.
FCBs don't invest in real estate...at least not rental properties. If they do invest, it's in commercial property.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/buyers-380751-foreign-homes.html
This will be my last post on the matter. If the above points are not enough for you, that's all I got. You're the investor and most of the data is out there. Again, you are trying to be a salesperson so I get it. I just hope you don't drink too much of your own koolaid.
1) You are not comparing apples to apples. You keep shifting between Forysthe/Fulton County and John's Creek as if they are interchangeable but they're not. John's Creek is high end of the income bracket for Fulton County. It would like saying that Turtle Rock is representative of Irvine (which is is not).
In Georgia, approximately 9% of the population makes more than $150K a year. Approximately 15% of the population in Fulton County makes above $150,000K a year. Forsyth County has about 24%. In JC, that number jumps to 31%. This means that JC already has a disproportionate number of high wage income earners than Georgia or the local area.
Thus, not only would Georgia have to continue to attract high wage earners, the bulk of those earners would have to choose to live in JC.
2) Georgia's growth rate has significantly slowed down. The growth rate for population change between 2010 and 2013 was 3.1%.. or about 1% a year. The growth rate was about 1.8% a year between 1980 and 1990, 2.6% a year between 1990 and 2000, and about 1.8% a year between 2000 and 2010.
Growth rates are not exponential or consistent. They usually boom and then stay flat. Georgia had its growth spurt in the last 30 years and are beginning to flatten out. Georgia is not super unique amongst states like California, Florida, New York, or Texas are. It doesn't have a geographic advantage like those 4 states and not a traditional business base. There are no inherent advantages for a business to be in Georgia like there is for those four states.
3) There is a numbers game issue. There is finite number of jobs that pays above $100K.
Irvine has 240,000 people. 32% of people living in Irvine have income make more than $150,000. That's about 76,800, basically the entire population of John's Creek. 23.4% of Irvine resident make between $100 to 150K, or about 56,000 people.
Forsyth County has about 190,000 people with 24% of the people making over $150K and 25.88% of the people making between $100 to 150K, which breaks down to about 45,600 and 49,000.
John's Creek has 80,000. JC's has about 31% make above $150,000 and 22% between $100K to 150K, which breaks down to about 24,800 and 17,600.
4) Irvine has a significant student population and is younger demographically. This matter as to income. Most of those between 20-24 are making little to no money. 25 to 34 is about when people start making good money. 35-54 is maximum earning age period.
Irvine: Median age is 33.9
20 to 24 years 9.59%
25 to 34 years 15.80%
35 to 44 years 15.59%
45 to 54 years 14.05%
55 to 64 years 10.05%
Irvine has about 30% of the population in prime earning age (close to the percentage making over $150K).
JC: Median age is 38.
20 to 24 years 2,672 3.48%
25 to 34 years 6,506 8.48%
35 to 44 years 13,739 17.91%
45 to 54 years 15,196 19.81%
55 to 64 years 8,150 10.62%
JC has 37%.
What does this mean? It means that a lot of young people are moving in Irvine as they are making their way up and their earning potential is going to grow in the next 10-15 years. JC, on the other hands, are populated by people who are already established.
5) You don't understand FCBs at all. The fact that they are FCBs means that they are not investors. They buy houses to live in, not to invest in. FCBs make their money overseas (usually China) and park their money and families here. The vast majority of FCB buyers come to Orange County and especially Irvine. Also, FCB don't show up in income surveys because they technically don't make money in the US and are not very likely to participate in census surveys.
FCBs don't invest in real estate...at least not rental properties. If they do invest, it's in commercial property.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/buyers-380751-foreign-homes.html
This will be my last post on the matter. If the above points are not enough for you, that's all I got. You're the investor and most of the data is out there. Again, you are trying to be a salesperson so I get it. I just hope you don't drink too much of your own koolaid.
homer_simpson
Well-known member
Lets just put this to rest guys... Johns Creek will never be like Irvine. There's too many Huck Gwais there!
Only a few people will get that!
Only a few people will get that!
panda
Well-known member
Irvine Commuter your information is incorrect. This data from straight from Census 2012. You are taking house hold income data from Johns Creek and taking Family income for Irvine. You need to compare household income vs household income and family income vs family income. Below is family income for both Johns Creek and Irvine.
Johns Creek median family income - $124,657, Average family income - $150,654
Irvine median family income - $109,176, Average family income - $133,969
3) There is a numbers game issue. There is finite number of jobs that pays above $100K.
Irvine has 240,000 people. 32% of people living in Irvine have income make more than $150,000. That's about 76,800, basically the entire population of John's Creek. 23.4% of Irvine resident make between $100 to 150K, or about 56,000 people.
Forsyth County has about 190,000 people with 24% of the people making over $150K and 25.88% of the people making between $100 to 150K, which breaks down to about 45,600 and 49,000.
John's Creek has 80,000. JC's has about 31% make above $150,000 and 22% between $100K to 150K, which breaks down to about 24,800 and 17,600.
Johns Creek median family income - $124,657, Average family income - $150,654
Irvine median family income - $109,176, Average family income - $133,969
3) There is a numbers game issue. There is finite number of jobs that pays above $100K.
Irvine has 240,000 people. 32% of people living in Irvine have income make more than $150,000. That's about 76,800, basically the entire population of John's Creek. 23.4% of Irvine resident make between $100 to 150K, or about 56,000 people.
Forsyth County has about 190,000 people with 24% of the people making over $150K and 25.88% of the people making between $100 to 150K, which breaks down to about 45,600 and 49,000.
John's Creek has 80,000. JC's has about 31% make above $150,000 and 22% between $100K to 150K, which breaks down to about 24,800 and 17,600.
panda
Well-known member
In terms of population inflow California grew 3.3 million whereas Georgia grew 1.5 million in from 2000 - 2010. This data is not very important to me. What is important is the metro city growth from 2000 - 2010 : Atlanta vs Los Angeles/OC metro growth from 2000 - 2010.
Why are we comparing county to city? We should be comparing the city vs city, state vs state, or county vs county.
As you had mentioned 50% of orange county is nice. Only 20% of Fulton County is nice (north fulton), but majority 90% of Forsyth county is nice.
This information is no use to me.
"In Georgia, approximately 9% of the population makes more than $150K a year. Approximately 15% of the population in Fulton County makes above $150,000K a year."
This data is not important to me for comparison. I don't really care to know that what % of California or Fulton County is making over $150k. As I had already mentioned, only north fulton has the best schools and high per capita income. Turtle Rock is a high end village in the city of Irvine as to Country Club of the South is a high end gated golf course subdivision in Johns Creek. This is how you should compare apples to apples: City vs City.
1) You are not comparing apples to apples. You keep shifting between Forysth/Fulton County and John's Creek as if they are interchangeable but they're not. John's Creek is high end of the income bracket for Fulton County. It would like saying that Turtle Rock is representative of Irvine (which is is not).
In Georgia, approximately 9% of the population makes more than $150K a year. Approximately 15% of the population in Fulton County makes above $150,000K a year. Forsyth County has about 24%. In JC, that number jumps to 31%. This means that JC already has a disproportionate number of high wage income earners than Georgia or the local area.
Thus, not only would Georgia have to continue to attract high wage earners, the bulk of those earners would have to choose to live in JC.
panda
Well-known member
California Court Company. I have never met you before, but I gave you too much credit when I said that you have a brain the size of peanut. It is actually the size of a single rice. You are a loser and what I consider Asian trash.
You call me out for fraud, a liar for what? Saying there is 5 Hmarts located in north Atlanta. Oh geeez. I made a mistake... the two Hmarts in Riverdale and Doraville is actually not located in north Atlanta. Only the Suwanee, Johns Creek, and Duluth Hmarts are located in north Atlanta. Have I ever solicited business with you or anyone you know to make such a false claim about me?
I post on TalkIrvine because I enjoy the company of few good old timers: Trojan, Socal, Irvinehomeshopper, Qwerty etc. 100% of my clients are high end serious investors and like Irvinehomeshopper decribed it best, TI is not really what you call the investor crowd and I would be beyond stupid looking for business here.
California Court Company, you are a fool.
You call me out for fraud, a liar for what? Saying there is 5 Hmarts located in north Atlanta. Oh geeez. I made a mistake... the two Hmarts in Riverdale and Doraville is actually not located in north Atlanta. Only the Suwanee, Johns Creek, and Duluth Hmarts are located in north Atlanta. Have I ever solicited business with you or anyone you know to make such a false claim about me?
I post on TalkIrvine because I enjoy the company of few good old timers: Trojan, Socal, Irvinehomeshopper, Qwerty etc. 100% of my clients are high end serious investors and like Irvinehomeshopper decribed it best, TI is not really what you call the investor crowd and I would be beyond stupid looking for business here.
California Court Company, you are a fool.
The California Court Company said: