Jobless Claims Jump Sharply

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<p><strong>Number of People Seeking Unemployment Benefits Rises Sharply</strong> </p>

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of new people signing up for jobless benefits last week jumped sharply, suggesting that the labor market is softening as national economic activity slows.

<p>The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications filed for unemployment insurance rose by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 to 352,000. It was the highest level since Feb. 10. </p>

<p>The report surprised economists. They were forecasting claims to hold steady around 330,000. </p>

<p>The economy, which grew at a brisk 4.9 percent pace in the summer, is expected to slow to a pace of just 1.5 percent or less in the current October-to-December period as housing and credit troubles take their toll on consumers and businesses alike. </p>

<p> </p>
 
Continuing jobless claims - the total number of individuals collecting unemployment benefits -- rose by 112,000 in the week ending Nov. 17, to 2.66 million, the highest mark since Dec. 24, 2005, the Labor Department said.





"This is the first time initial claims have broken 350,000 since February and thus perhaps an early sign of a more severe deterioration in the labor market," said Andrew Gledhill of Moody's Economy.com.





The four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,750 to 335,250, the highest since March 3. The continuing claims average climbed by 20,500 to 2.59 million. That number was the highest since Jan. 1, 2006.





Initial claims represent job destruction, while the level of continuing claims show how hard or easy it is for displaced workers to find new jobs.





An increase in claims is a leading indicator of an economic slowdown, and analysts have been watching the claims data closely.





The insured unemployment rate, representing the portion of all workers covered by unemployment insurance who are collecting benefits, also crept up for the week ending Nov. 17, to 2.0% from 1.9%.
 
I don't think these numbers show the full depth of just how bad things really are, for instance, they don't reflect:



1. People who lost their Jobs who haven't claimed unemployment (Like my Wife)

2. People who have had their Hours or Pay cut.

3. People who were laid off and found employment in a lower paying job.

4. Companies who have lost people through natural attrition, haven't replaced them but simply shared the ex-employees work-load amongst employees who are still there.

5. Realtors/mortgage Brokers etc who have no income coming in.



I know it's probably impossible to collect reliable data on the above but in my opinion there's a side to the job market that isn't properly recognized.
 
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/2m5m9p">U.S. incomes fall, spending flat in October</a>.





Nominal incomes rose just 0.2% last month despite strong job growth. But after accounting for a 0.3% rise in prices, October's real after-tax incomes fell 0.1%.





Meanwhile, consumer spending increased 0.2% in nominal terms and was flat after adjusting for inflation. Spending was the weakest since March.





October's personal savings rate dipped to 0.5% from 0.7%, the government's data showed.
 
Stories like this seem to be happening more frequently:





<a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-paycut29nov29,1,6368542.story?ctrack=1&cset=true">Workers' salary cuts are probed</a>








Labor Department opens an investigation after a new contractor reduces wages in Laguna Niguel federal office.





Nearly a third of the 600 employees at the federal Citizenship and Immigration Services office in Laguna Niguel, which handles paperwork from around the world, will have their wages reduced -- in some cases by more than $7 an hour -- when the new contractor takes over Monday





Bill Crisp, 59, said he has been a quality control inspector at the Laguna Niguel office for seven years, earning $20.22 an hour. Beginning Monday, he said, he will earn $12.98 an hour -- about 36% less -- in a new job as a data entry clerk.





"My wife doesn't work. How are we suppose to pay rent, eat and live on a salary that's been cut more than $7 an hour? Is this fair?" Crisp said.





Alison Nguyen, a data entry clerk, said she was told her new hourly pay will be $10.69, a drop of $2.29.
 
<p><em>"The report surprised economists. They were forecasting claims to hold steady around 330,000. "</em></p>

<p><em>----</em>Idiots.</p>

<p>PeterUK,</p>

<p>I couldn't agree more with how these statistics leave out the dire situations of many. Many people in the RE industry are functionally unemployed, meaning they still have a job but aren't making any money. I've never received 100% confirmation of this, but I think only W2 employees can claim unemployment. A 1099 RE industry worker can't go down to the unemployment office and file for benefits, I don't believe. Someone please confirm.</p>
 
<p>From the California Unemployment Insurance Code:</p>

<p>650. <strong>"Employment" does not include services performed as a real


estate</strong>, mineral, oil and gas, or cemetery <strong>broker or as a real estate</strong>,


cemetery or direct sales salesperson, or a yacht broker or <strong>salesman,


by an individual if all of the following conditions are met:


</strong> (a) The individual is licensed under the provisions of Chapter 19


(commencing with Section 9600) of Division 3 of, or Part 1


(commencing with Section 10000) of Division 4 of, the Business and


Professions Code, Article 2 (commencing with Section 700) of Chapter


5 of Division 3 of the Harbors and Navigation Code, or is engaged in


the trade or business of primarily inperson demonstration and sales


presentation of consumer products, including services or other


intangibles, <strong>in the home or sales to any buyer on a buy-sell basis, a


deposit-commission basis, or any similar basis, for resale by the


buyer or any other person in the home or otherwise than from a retail


or wholesale establishment.


(b) Substantially all of the remuneration (whether or not paid in


cash) for the services performed by that individual is directly


related to sales or other output (including the performance of


services) rather than to the number of hours worked by that


individual.


(c) The services performed by the individual are performed


pursuant to a written contract between that individual and the person


for whom the services are performed and the contract provides that


the individual will not be treated as an employee with respect to


those services for state tax purposes.


</strong></p>
 
<p>ADP just released a report today that the private employment sector ADDED 189,000 jobs in November. </p>

<p>I know this isn't the official gov't number, but does anyone else feel like we're living in a real life 1984? Recession? What recession? So what if everyone I know is cutting back on spending these days? The good news just keeps on coming. Jobs are up, productivity is at the highest level in 4 years, for some reason the FED is going to cut interest rates by half a point next week... and we're at war with Eastasia, or is it Eurasia now? </p>

<p>Does it even matter? </p>
 
Barry did a quick <a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/12/jobs-surge.html">snippet on the ADP report</a>. Seems like their numbers this time of year have a great deal of variance.
 
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