Irvine Inventory is under 500 today
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usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258717218]Just curious. What has been Irvine's highest and lowest inventory on record? Anybody know?</blockquote>
The number of homes for sale in Irvine has been below 500 for about a month now and stands at 473 as of 9pm today. Panda, shame on you...have you not been reading my thread with a monthly update of <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5423/P50/">Irvine inventory</a>? I don't have the data of the number of listings going back, but I would be willing to bet that the peak of about 1,300 reached in July of 2007 was the maximum inventory for sale in Irvine in the past 10 years. In terms of the low, it is very possible that the number of homes for sale during the bubble years might have been lower than today's levels.
The number of homes for sale in Irvine has been below 500 for about a month now and stands at 473 as of 9pm today. Panda, shame on you...have you not been reading my thread with a monthly update of <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5423/P50/">Irvine inventory</a>? I don't have the data of the number of listings going back, but I would be willing to bet that the peak of about 1,300 reached in July of 2007 was the maximum inventory for sale in Irvine in the past 10 years. In terms of the low, it is very possible that the number of homes for sale during the bubble years might have been lower than today's levels.
Geotpf_IHB
New member
Slightly off topic, but I still follow low end Riverside inventory (<$175k, SFR only, no short sales or under contract) on Redfin, and it's on the upswing recently, after falling almost constantly for the seven months I've been tracking it. It's still less than a quarter what it was when I started (83 today vs. 336 on 4/1 when I started), but up from the low of 64 on 10/20. More houses are coming on the market, basically all either REOs or people flipping previously purchased REOs-almost no organic sellers (with prices 60-70% off peak in most cases, not surprising). I don't bother to track short sales as I consider them mostly fictitious.
Cubic Zirconia_IHB
New member
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258722037][quote author="PANDA" date=1258717218]Just curious. What has been Irvine's highest and lowest inventory on record? Anybody know?</blockquote>
The number of homes for sale in Irvine has been below 500 for about a month now and stands at 473 as of 9pm today. Panda, shame on you...have you not been reading my thread with a monthly update of <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5423/P50/">Irvine inventory</a>? I don't have the data of the number of listings going back, but I would be willing to bet that the peak of about 1,300 reached in July of 2007 was the maximum inventory for sale in Irvine in the past 10 years. In terms of the low, it is very possible that the number of homes for sale during the bubble years might have been lower than today's levels.</blockquote>
In 08 the levels ranged from 1100-1183 when I was looking. Don't know exact numbers.
Is the number low because many are planning to stay put till the house is auctioned/foreclosed and not worrying about putting the house on market?
The number of homes for sale in Irvine has been below 500 for about a month now and stands at 473 as of 9pm today. Panda, shame on you...have you not been reading my thread with a monthly update of <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5423/P50/">Irvine inventory</a>? I don't have the data of the number of listings going back, but I would be willing to bet that the peak of about 1,300 reached in July of 2007 was the maximum inventory for sale in Irvine in the past 10 years. In terms of the low, it is very possible that the number of homes for sale during the bubble years might have been lower than today's levels.</blockquote>
In 08 the levels ranged from 1100-1183 when I was looking. Don't know exact numbers.
Is the number low because many are planning to stay put till the house is auctioned/foreclosed and not worrying about putting the house on market?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia" date=1258766222][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258722037][quote author="PANDA" date=1258717218]Just curious. What has been Irvine's highest and lowest inventory on record? Anybody know?</blockquote>
The number of homes for sale in Irvine has been below 500 for about a month now and stands at 473 as of 9pm today. Panda, shame on you...have you not been reading my thread with a monthly update of <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5423/P50/">Irvine inventory</a>? I don't have the data of the number of listings going back, but I would be willing to bet that the peak of about 1,300 reached in July of 2007 was the maximum inventory for sale in Irvine in the past 10 years. In terms of the low, it is very possible that the number of homes for sale during the bubble years might have been lower than today's levels.</blockquote>
In 08 the levels ranged from 1100-1183 when I was looking. Don't know exact numbers.
Is the number low because many are planning to stay put till the house is auctioned/foreclosed and not worrying about putting the house on market?</blockquote>
I believe that inventory is super low due to several of the following reasons:
- Banks very slow to release REO inventory and super slow on foreclosing on properties
- Numerous owners are underwater on their homes
- Other owners believe that prices will increase and will not list them until they do
- Owners under financial pressure are resorting to renting out rooms to hold on to their homes
- There is a strong demand for Irvine homes and sales have picked up this year
In my opinion, Irvine home prices will not come down until inventory levels increase significantly from today's levels and/or interest rates rise above 6.5%-7%
The number of homes for sale in Irvine has been below 500 for about a month now and stands at 473 as of 9pm today. Panda, shame on you...have you not been reading my thread with a monthly update of <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5423/P50/">Irvine inventory</a>? I don't have the data of the number of listings going back, but I would be willing to bet that the peak of about 1,300 reached in July of 2007 was the maximum inventory for sale in Irvine in the past 10 years. In terms of the low, it is very possible that the number of homes for sale during the bubble years might have been lower than today's levels.</blockquote>
In 08 the levels ranged from 1100-1183 when I was looking. Don't know exact numbers.
Is the number low because many are planning to stay put till the house is auctioned/foreclosed and not worrying about putting the house on market?</blockquote>
I believe that inventory is super low due to several of the following reasons:
- Banks very slow to release REO inventory and super slow on foreclosing on properties
- Numerous owners are underwater on their homes
- Other owners believe that prices will increase and will not list them until they do
- Owners under financial pressure are resorting to renting out rooms to hold on to their homes
- There is a strong demand for Irvine homes and sales have picked up this year
In my opinion, Irvine home prices will not come down until inventory levels increase significantly from today's levels and/or interest rates rise above 6.5%-7%
PANDA_IHB
New member
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258946075][quote author="Cubic Zirconia" date=1258766222][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258722037][quote author="PANDA" date=1258717218]Just curious. What has been Irvine's highest and lowest inventory on record? Anybody know?</blockquote>
The number of homes for sale in Irvine has been below 500 for about a month now and stands at 473 as of 9pm today. Panda, shame on you...have you not been reading my thread with a monthly update of <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5423/P50/">Irvine inventory</a>? I don't have the data of the number of listings going back, but I would be willing to bet that the peak of about 1,300 reached in July of 2007 was the maximum inventory for sale in Irvine in the past 10 years. In terms of the low, it is very possible that the number of homes for sale during the bubble years might have been lower than today's levels.</blockquote>
In 08 the levels ranged from 1100-1183 when I was looking. Don't know exact numbers.
Is the number low because many are planning to stay put till the house is auctioned/foreclosed and not worrying about putting the house on market?</blockquote>
I believe that inventory is super low due to several of the following reasons:
- Banks very slow to release REO inventory and super slow on foreclosing on properties
- Numerous owners are underwater on their homes
- Other owners believe that prices will increase and will not list them until they do
- Owners under financial pressure are resorting to renting out rooms to hold on to their homes
- There is a strong demand for Irvine homes and sales have picked up this year
In my opinion, Irvine home prices will not come down until inventory levels increase significantly from today's levels and/or interest rates rise above 6.5%-7%</blockquote>
T-man, and my conclusion is that this cannot last forever UNLESS the government bails out every distressed Irvine home owner.
Just wondering.. does anybody know how to get unemployment stats exclusively for Irvine? How does the unemployment stats in Irvine look compared to rest of Orange County?
Irvine Unemployment Rate is 3.9%. Is this correct while the rest of the country has a 10.3% unemployment rate?
<a href="http://realestate.yahoo.com/California/Irvine/neighborhoods">http://realestate.yahoo.com/California/Irvine/neighborhoods</a>
The number of homes for sale in Irvine has been below 500 for about a month now and stands at 473 as of 9pm today. Panda, shame on you...have you not been reading my thread with a monthly update of <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5423/P50/">Irvine inventory</a>? I don't have the data of the number of listings going back, but I would be willing to bet that the peak of about 1,300 reached in July of 2007 was the maximum inventory for sale in Irvine in the past 10 years. In terms of the low, it is very possible that the number of homes for sale during the bubble years might have been lower than today's levels.</blockquote>
In 08 the levels ranged from 1100-1183 when I was looking. Don't know exact numbers.
Is the number low because many are planning to stay put till the house is auctioned/foreclosed and not worrying about putting the house on market?</blockquote>
I believe that inventory is super low due to several of the following reasons:
- Banks very slow to release REO inventory and super slow on foreclosing on properties
- Numerous owners are underwater on their homes
- Other owners believe that prices will increase and will not list them until they do
- Owners under financial pressure are resorting to renting out rooms to hold on to their homes
- There is a strong demand for Irvine homes and sales have picked up this year
In my opinion, Irvine home prices will not come down until inventory levels increase significantly from today's levels and/or interest rates rise above 6.5%-7%</blockquote>
T-man, and my conclusion is that this cannot last forever UNLESS the government bails out every distressed Irvine home owner.
Just wondering.. does anybody know how to get unemployment stats exclusively for Irvine? How does the unemployment stats in Irvine look compared to rest of Orange County?
Irvine Unemployment Rate is 3.9%. Is this correct while the rest of the country has a 10.3% unemployment rate?
<a href="http://realestate.yahoo.com/California/Irvine/neighborhoods">http://realestate.yahoo.com/California/Irvine/neighborhoods</a>
ecchan_IHB
New member
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258946075]
In my opinion, Irvine home prices will not come down until inventory levels increase significantly from today's levels and/or interest rates rise above 6.5%-7%</blockquote>
I agree with your assessment. Even if no one is buying now, it will take quite a few months for the inventory to build up. The truth is, there are a lot of buyers waiting to get in for houses in Irvine. With the large number of buyers with significant down payment and even all cash to purchasing houses, I doubt 6-7% interest rate is going to drastically change the dynamics in Irvine. Bottom line, housing prices will likely remain relatively unchange in 2010 vs 2009 IMO, except the higher end houses >1.5mil.
In my opinion, Irvine home prices will not come down until inventory levels increase significantly from today's levels and/or interest rates rise above 6.5%-7%</blockquote>
I agree with your assessment. Even if no one is buying now, it will take quite a few months for the inventory to build up. The truth is, there are a lot of buyers waiting to get in for houses in Irvine. With the large number of buyers with significant down payment and even all cash to purchasing houses, I doubt 6-7% interest rate is going to drastically change the dynamics in Irvine. Bottom line, housing prices will likely remain relatively unchange in 2010 vs 2009 IMO, except the higher end houses >1.5mil.
roundcorners_IHB
New member
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=at8txtF7KVaA">U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise 10%, More Than Forecast </a>
If sales are increasing, why don't banks release more of their REOs... is it because they want to control the supply and demand higher price?
If sales are increasing, why don't banks release more of their REOs... is it because they want to control the supply and demand higher price?
Geotpf_IHB
New member
[quote author="roundcorners" date=1259023804]<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=at8txtF7KVaA">U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise 10%, More Than Forecast </a>
If sales are increasing, why don't banks release more of their REOs... is it because they want to control the supply and demand higher price?</blockquote>
That's one theory. My theory is that most have yet to be foreclosed by the banks (that is, they have received NOD but the foreclosure auction has not occurred yet) because many/most are in some stage of a loan mod or short sale. We will see how many of those actually succeed long term (loan mod programs have only been working full speed for a few months now, so many that have been attempted but will eventually fail have not yet had enough time to fail and get foreclosed upon).
My low-end Riverside number is still climbing; now up to 94, so that's one data point.
If sales are increasing, why don't banks release more of their REOs... is it because they want to control the supply and demand higher price?</blockquote>
That's one theory. My theory is that most have yet to be foreclosed by the banks (that is, they have received NOD but the foreclosure auction has not occurred yet) because many/most are in some stage of a loan mod or short sale. We will see how many of those actually succeed long term (loan mod programs have only been working full speed for a few months now, so many that have been attempted but will eventually fail have not yet had enough time to fail and get foreclosed upon).
My low-end Riverside number is still climbing; now up to 94, so that's one data point.