Housing Crash to Resume on 7 Million Foreclosures, Amherst Says
- Thread starter patsox1975_IHB
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RE is all about local or the micro economics. Yes, nationally we will see about an 8% decline from here, maybe even 12%. In OC we will see even more. What goes higher than national and per income crashes harder than national and over-corrects for incomes. Honestly, go research the 90s housing market. Wash, rinse, and repeat.
I'm just saying that's a pretty significant difference, not to mention that's Orange County. What will happen to inland california? 60-70%?
Okay... basic math comes into play here. The IE has already seen declines of 40%-50%+++, OC... especially the nice parts has seen 20%-30% declines. Mmmm... who is closer to incomes? Yup, the IE. Fundamentals my friend, it all goes back to fundamentals.
BTW, did you research the 90s bust yet? I'm waiting for your the "defense sector bust" caused the collapse response. When really it was a "credit infused bust" that caused the collapse.
Did you see the home I posted in Hillcrest? Priced below "89" prices in nominal terms and priced below "96" real terms. Get used to it. There is only more of this to come.
What were interest rates like in 93? What were they like in 95 and 96?
Answer the questions Robert.
Hillcrest property - Have you seen an inspection report? Is there mold or structural damage? There's clearly termite work needed to be done, but it's unclear how much. Anytime a property say that it needs work in the description, it REALLY needs work. Even more interesting is the fact that it has fallen out of escrow 6 times... Sounds like there's some pretty big issues going on with the property. Maybe I can find a property that has fire damage and compare it's price. At least compare land values, or BETTER YET! actually use averages
Who asks a question, and then immediately follows it with "Answer the questions." All I see is one question after another, what are you even saying?
Here are your answers:
1) Yes.
2) Between 6.9 and 8.1
3) Between 7.2 and 9.15
4) Between 7 and about 8.3
Your rates are a bit high for 93, but that is okay. What I am saying is history is repeating itself. We are in the same low rate dead cat bounce we saw in 93, only to have prices go down more than 10% and foreclosures increase over the next three years. Back in 93 we had job growth, currently we still have job losses. Econ 101, prices will continue to decline and they will be more than just 8% in OC, because that is what history tells us and because we don't have job growth.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
There is no phantom inventory.
morekaos_IHB
New member
awgee_IHB
New member
There may be another chink in the foreclosure process which may push foreclosures out till who knows when.
The (MERS) Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems.
The (MERS) Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems.
dethman_IHB
New member
so where are we really at??
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
"The analysts didn’t forecast home prices. The Barclays analysts including Glenn Boyd, who earlier this year wrote that once it starts, the housing recovery will be dulled by a “pent- up supply” of homes from owners who have put off sales during the slump, this month predicted 8 percent further depreciation."
Wasn't everyone saying that declines were going to be 15, 20 and even 30+%?
Wasn't everyone saying that declines were going to be 15, 20 and even 30+%?
graphrix_IHB
New member
RoLar_USC said:
RE is all about local or the micro economics. Yes, nationally we will see about an 8% decline from here, maybe even 12%. In OC we will see even more. What goes higher than national and per income crashes harder than national and over-corrects for incomes. Honestly, go research the 90s housing market. Wash, rinse, and repeat.
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
I'm just saying that's a pretty significant difference, not to mention that's Orange County. What will happen to inland california? 60-70%?
graphrix_IHB
New member
RoLar_USC said:
Okay... basic math comes into play here. The IE has already seen declines of 40%-50%+++, OC... especially the nice parts has seen 20%-30% declines. Mmmm... who is closer to incomes? Yup, the IE. Fundamentals my friend, it all goes back to fundamentals.
BTW, did you research the 90s bust yet? I'm waiting for your the "defense sector bust" caused the collapse response. When really it was a "credit infused bust" that caused the collapse.
Did you see the home I posted in Hillcrest? Priced below "89" prices in nominal terms and priced below "96" real terms. Get used to it. There is only more of this to come.
What were interest rates like in 93? What were they like in 95 and 96?
Answer the questions Robert.
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
Hillcrest property - Have you seen an inspection report? Is there mold or structural damage? There's clearly termite work needed to be done, but it's unclear how much. Anytime a property say that it needs work in the description, it REALLY needs work. Even more interesting is the fact that it has fallen out of escrow 6 times... Sounds like there's some pretty big issues going on with the property. Maybe I can find a property that has fire damage and compare it's price. At least compare land values, or BETTER YET! actually use averages
Who asks a question, and then immediately follows it with "Answer the questions." All I see is one question after another, what are you even saying?
Here are your answers:
1) Yes.
2) Between 6.9 and 8.1
3) Between 7.2 and 9.15
4) Between 7 and about 8.3
graphrix_IHB
New member
RoLar_USC said:
Your rates are a bit high for 93, but that is okay. What I am saying is history is repeating itself. We are in the same low rate dead cat bounce we saw in 93, only to have prices go down more than 10% and foreclosures increase over the next three years. Back in 93 we had job growth, currently we still have job losses. Econ 101, prices will continue to decline and they will be more than just 8% in OC, because that is what history tells us and because we don't have job growth.