Hottest, coldest SoCal ZIPs in March

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ABC123_IHB

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Interesting to see which southern california zip codes are holding up.

From <a href="http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-re-marketchart20apr20,0,1664084.story">Sunday's LA Times</a>



Here are the Southern California communities with the greatest increases and greatest decreases in value comparing the first

quarters of 2007 and 2008, based on at least 20 sales. The median sales prices are for existing, detached homes.



<u><strong>Biggest gains </strong> </u>



Newport Beach 92663 $1,649,000 $2,750,000 66.8%



Indian Wells 92210 $ 970,000 $1,352,500 39.4%



Newport Coast 92657 $2,048,750 $2,610,000 27.4%



West Hollywood 90069 $1,690,000 $2,121,000 25.5%



Santa Barbara 93108 $2,866,364 $3,587,500 25.2%



Irvine 92603 $1,430,000 $1,687,500 18.0%



Rancho Palos Verdes 90275 $995,000 $1,170,000 17.6%



Palos Verdes Peninsula 90274 $1,425,000 $1,659,500 16.5%



Brentwood 90049 $1,815,000 $2,100,000 15.7%



San Diego 92107 $725,000 $829,500 14.4%



<u><strong>Biggest losses </strong> </u>



Hemet 92543 $250,000 $130,000 -48.0%



Twentynine Palms 92277 $150,000 $85,000 -43.3%



Moreno Valley 92553 $355,000 $201,500 -43.2%



Sun City 92587 $560,000 $322,500 -42.4%



Paramount 90723 $450,000 $260,000 -42.2%



Palmdale 93550 $325,000 $190,000 -41.5%



Moreno Valley 92551 $375,000 $229,500 -38.8%



Oxnard 93033 $520,000 $320,000 -38.5%



Lancaster 93534 $290,000 $180,000 -37.9%



Adelanto 92301 $283,000 $176,000 -37.8%
 
somehow i thik the methodology use in these figures is greatly flawed. the gains are way too large and i cant believe the losses, even out in the boondogs, are that bad on avg.
 
I think their numbers might be close.

For example Newport Beach 92663



Month Num Sold Median Price Diff YOY

Jan 9 2050 K .28%

Feb 7 1710 K 15.5%

Mar 6 3250 K 94%
 
I'm on the same page as skek. There are no jobs in Hemet and it's a dump, Oxnard is a farming town and they made the mistake of building way too many houses on some of that farming land, Moreno Valley hasn't been the same since the Air Force base shut down...on and on. Those numbers look about right to me.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1208821543]Interesting to see which southern california zip codes are holding up.

From <a href="http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-re-marketchart20apr20,0,1664084.story">Sunday's LA Times</a>



Here are the Southern California communities with the greatest increases and greatest decreases in value comparing the first

quarters of 2007 and 2008, based on at least 20 sales. The median sales prices are for existing, detached homes.



<u><strong>Biggest gains </strong> </u>



Newport Beach 92663 $1,649,000 $2,750,000 66.8%



Indian Wells 92210 $ 970,000 $1,352,500 39.4%



Newport Coast 92657 $2,048,750 $2,610,000 27.4%



West Hollywood 90069 $1,690,000 $2,121,000 25.5%



Santa Barbara 93108 $2,866,364 $3,587,500 25.2%



Irvine 92603 $1,430,000 $1,687,500 18.0%



Rancho Palos Verdes 90275 $995,000 $1,170,000 17.6%



Palos Verdes Peninsula 90274 $1,425,000 $1,659,500 16.5%



Brentwood 90049 $1,815,000 $2,100,000 15.7%



San Diego 92107 $725,000 $829,500 14.4%



<u><strong>Biggest losses </strong> </u>



Hemet 92543 $250,000 $130,000 -48.0%



Twentynine Palms 92277 $150,000 $85,000 -43.3%



Moreno Valley 92553 $355,000 $201,500 -43.2%



Sun City 92587 $560,000 $322,500 -42.4%



Paramount 90723 $450,000 $260,000 -42.2%



Palmdale 93550 $325,000 $190,000 -41.5%



Moreno Valley 92551 $375,000 $229,500 -38.8%



Oxnard 93033 $520,000 $320,000 -38.5%



Lancaster 93534 $290,000 $180,000 -37.9%



Adelanto 92301 $283,000 $176,000 -37.8%</blockquote>




My $.02 on these numbers is that they are skewed/flawed, maybe not all of them but alot of them are.



I'll take Newport Coast since a good amount of my business is done in this area.



Because Newport Coast home values (condos, townhomes, sfr's, custom homes, etc...) can range currently from $699k - $25.0m, this is going to throw the numbers off. Other areas on this list, such as Irvine92603 or Indian Wells might not have such a wide range of home values (maybe they do i don't know) and stay more consistent with home prices in their communities. If during Q1(2007) 26 homes in NC sell, these 26 could average out to $2.0m. On the other hand, if during Q1(2008) 19 homes sell, and 3 or 4 out of that 19 are expensive custom homes, obviously this is going to drive up the average selling price and again throw the numbers off, *and* you were not able to see the difference in the number of home sales.



I would not focus my attention so much on these numbers, but rather the price per square foot of homes in any given 1 particular community in NC, comparing the price per square foot of that home versus other homes in that particular community that are currently for sale and sold this year, '07',06',05',04',etc.... Also, the number of home sales is important. Home sales with a small sample sizes can send the wrong message just as I described above.



With that said, its a great time to buy in NC. (excess inventory, reduced asking prices, lengthy days on the market count, low interest rates, fha financing up to $729k, buyers making aggressive offers, motivated sellers, etc...)
 
I always that that the median was the middle and the mean was the average or did my jr. high math teacher teach me wrong?



The reason why the sample is skewed is, more than likely, because they are only using existing, detached homes.
 
The median is the middle of a distribution: half the scores are above the median and half are below the median.

Example: the median of the numbers 2, 4, 7, 12 is (4+7)/2 = 5.5.



I overlooked the detached homes part of the original post. In that case, $935k-$25.0m.
 
A median cannot be skewed because it is a central data point. It can be an inaccurate measure of pricing activity. If there are a small number of transactions, and if these transactions all occur at the high end, the median will be higher, but it may not be reflective of increasing prices overall.
 
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