Home Sales Transactions at its lowest since 1995 and 2010

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panda

panda

Well-known member
Isn't this Crazy Guys? The transactions of homes nationally are a numbers we haven't seen since 1995 and 2010 and the recession hasn't even begun yet.

09/01/2024 3,470,000 home sales
01/31/2010 3,450,000 home sales
04/30/1995 3,460,000 home sales

Did we hit the bottom in 09/01/2024 with 3,470,000 home sales? It is hard for me to see this as the stock market is still making all time highs and unemployment is rising. Who thinks we will see the home sales drop even below the 09/01/2024 low?

Again I could be wrong... but I see hitting a new low below 3,470,000 home sales in 2025 - 2026. Cutting rates 25 basis is not going to make a difference.

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This chart shows me that the worst in housing is not behind us. I can be wrong.

Notice how the maximum pain is right around 12 month in monthly supply and we are currently at 9 month. I do believe that it will reach that 12 months mark before it get better.

sfr2.jpg
 
Here is another example why I don't think the worst of housing is behind us. Something is delaying this recession, but it is inevitable. For SP500/DOW to be a its all time high (always heading higher)... There is something seriously broken in the economics here. Welcome to the Upside Down Economy.

Notice that the Unemployment chart moves in waves, once recession hits, it will accelerate upwards.

unemployment.jpg
 
Fasten your seat belts guys. We are headed for a major recession if not a depression. Famine is about to hit this land.

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zovall said:
Do you think we'll inflate our way out of it?
Click to expand...
The Fed will definitely try to inflate their way out it like 1929, but question is will they be successful?

I think the Fed was too late raising the rates and now too late in lowering the rates. At the same time it seems crazy to be cutting the rates while the stock market is making all time highs.

I really hope i am wrong as i dont want any of us to go thru this, but the data i am seeing is showing me otherwise.
 
panda said:
Notice how the maximum pain is right around 12 month in monthly supply and we are currently at 9 month. I do believe that it will reach that 12 months mark before it get better.
Click to expand...
Nine months of housing inventory is right about when recessions begin.
 
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