1. Geography in Iraq;
The fighting is mainly in the northern part of Iraq. Its main oil production and export facilities are in the south, where Shiites dominate. ... Most experts do not expect the Sunni rebels to invade the south, which accounts for about 90 percent of Iraq's oil production and exports.
2. Seasonal Factors:
Prices typically fall in June, when refineries are revved up and ready to go but families still have kids in school. They go up again in July and August, when vacationers take to the roads. ... This June, prices have been mostly steady, which amounts to a stealth increase.
3. Domestic Production:
U.S. production has gone from about 5.5 million barrels a day to almost 8.5 million in the past three years, and could hit 10 million within a few years ... reduced reliance on Mideast oil is blunting the impact of the Iraq conflict.
