Economic Commentary

[quote author="awgee" date=1258694660][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258691551]<strong>In summry, we are breaking record on every single foreclosure measure%</strong></blockquote>
Yes, but the bottom is in and the economy is recovering.</blockquote>


LoL, good one. And Markets always climb a wall of worry.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1258707203][quote author="awgee" date=1258694660][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258691551]<strong>In summry, we are breaking record on every single foreclosure measure%</strong></blockquote>
Yes, but the bottom is in and the economy is recovering.</blockquote>


LoL, good one. And Markets always climb a wall of worry.</blockquote>
You know what gets me about the whole wall of worry and contrarian thing? Everybody thinks that they are a contrarian and their view is the contrarian view and no matter what they are invested in, it is climbing a wall of worry.







With a 97% bullish trader sentiment, there are gold investors who will tell you that being bullish on gold is the contrarian viewpoint. Whatever.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258708232][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258707203][quote author="awgee" date=1258694660][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258691551]<strong>In summry, we are breaking record on every single foreclosure measure%</strong></blockquote>
Yes, but the bottom is in and the economy is recovering.</blockquote>


LoL, good one. And Markets always climb a wall of worry.</blockquote>
You know what gets me about the whole wall of worry and contrarian thing? Everybody thinks that they are a contrarian and their view is the contrarian view and no matter what they are invested in, it is climbing a wall of worry.







With a 97% bullish trader sentiment, there are gold investors who will tell you that being bullish on gold is the contrarian viewpoint. Whatever.</blockquote>


LOL, I'm totally with you on this.
 
This is a little off the topic, but very important so I'd like to share it here.



Attached is a daily chart on UUP (US dollar ETF), we are clearly still in a down trend, noticed the circled lower highs and lower lows? So while I'm playing a quick rebound of dollar and shorting the stock market, I know unless UUP can go above 23 and stay there for a good week or two, until I see that higher lows and higher highs (then I will short the heck of S&P), I will cover and go long. So assuming the downtrend on dollar will continue into year end 2009, S&P will continue edge up and so does gold.



Trend is your friend.
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[quote author="BondTrader" date=1258757879]This is a little off the topic, but very important so I'd like to share it here.



Attached is a daily chart on UUP (US dollar ETF), we are clearly still in a down trend, noticed the circled lower highs and lower lows? So while I'm playing a quick rebound of dollar and shorting the stock market, I know unless UUP can go above 23 and stay there for a good week or two, until I see that higher lows and higher highs (then I will short the heck of S&P), I will cover and go long. So assuming the downtrend on dollar will continue into year end 2009, S&P will continue edge up and so does gold.



Trend is your friend.</blockquote>


If I am going long I may, <strong>MAY</strong>, try and catch a bottom. But, if I am shorting, which is what I mostly do when trading, which I am not doing right now except for the Panda Challenge, I do not try and catch a top. I wait for the down trend to establish itself. I have learned this works for me the hard way.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258759167][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258757879]This is a little off the topic, but very important so I'd like to share it here.



Attached is a daily chart on UUP (US dollar ETF), we are clearly still in a down trend, noticed the circled lower highs and lower lows? So while I'm playing a quick rebound of dollar and shorting the stock market, I know unless UUP can go above 23 and stay there for a good week or two, until I see that higher lows and higher highs (then I will short the heck of S&P), I will cover and go long. So assuming the downtrend on dollar will continue into year end 2009, S&P will continue edge up and so does gold.



Trend is your friend.</blockquote>


If I am going long I may, <strong>MAY</strong>, try and catch a bottom. But, if I am shorting, which is what I mostly do when trading, which I am not doing right now except for the Panda Challenge, I do not try and catch a top. I wait for the down trend to establish itself. I have learned this works for me the hard way.</blockquote>


To me, regardless short or long, I try to ride the trend and get in LATE and get out EARLY, just like you've described to wait patiently for the trend to establish and prove itself. Man, I almost forget about panada challenge.... too busy with real money lately, lol.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1258759439][quote author="awgee" date=1258759167][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258757879]This is a little off the topic, but very important so I'd like to share it here.



Attached is a daily chart on UUP (US dollar ETF), we are clearly still in a down trend, noticed the circled lower highs and lower lows? So while I'm playing a quick rebound of dollar and shorting the stock market, I know unless UUP can go above 23 and stay there for a good week or two, until I see that higher lows and higher highs (then I will short the heck of S&P), I will cover and go long. So assuming the downtrend on dollar will continue into year end 2009, S&P will continue edge up and so does gold.



Trend is your friend.</blockquote>


If I am going long I may, <strong>MAY</strong>, try and catch a bottom. But, if I am shorting, which is what I mostly do when trading, which I am not doing right now except for the Panda Challenge, I do not try and catch a top. I wait for the down trend to establish itself. I have learned this works for me the hard way.</blockquote>


To me, regardless short or long, I try to ride the trend and get in LATE and get out EARLY, just like you've described to wait patient for the trend to establish and prove itself. Man, I almost forget about panada challenge.... too busy with real money lately, lol.</blockquote>


I always tell myself to be patient and wait. But, most of the time I do not. And it ends up costing me.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258759530][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258759439][quote author="awgee" date=1258759167][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258757879]This is a little off the topic, but very important so I'd like to share it here.



Attached is a daily chart on UUP (US dollar ETF), we are clearly still in a down trend, noticed the circled lower highs and lower lows? So while I'm playing a quick rebound of dollar and shorting the stock market, I know unless UUP can go above 23 and stay there for a good week or two, until I see that higher lows and higher highs (then I will short the heck of S&P), I will cover and go long. So assuming the downtrend on dollar will continue into year end 2009, S&P will continue edge up and so does gold.



Trend is your friend.</blockquote>


If I am going long I may, <strong>MAY</strong>, try and catch a bottom. But, if I am shorting, which is what I mostly do when trading, which I am not doing right now except for the Panda Challenge, I do not try and catch a top. I wait for the down trend to establish itself. I have learned this works for me the hard way.</blockquote>


To me, regardless short or long, I try to ride the trend and get in LATE and get out EARLY, just like you've described to wait patient for the trend to establish and prove itself. Man, I almost forget about panada challenge.... too busy with real money lately, lol.</blockquote>


I always tell myself to be patient and wait. But, most of the time I do not. And it ends up costing me.</blockquote>


I typically start a position with 25 shares and 4 points stop (not applying to anything less than $20 or options), so the most I will lose is $100. If it moves in my favor, then I will add to my positions when it pulls back establishing higher lows or breakout with new highs. Nothing goes straight up or down, you will always have chance to add at the right time. The key is to have some skin in the game early with tight stops. Once it start working for you, then you can add and move up the stops.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1258760703][quote author="awgee" date=1258759530][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258759439][quote author="awgee" date=1258759167][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258757879]This is a little off the topic, but very important so I'd like to share it here.



Attached is a daily chart on UUP (US dollar ETF), we are clearly still in a down trend, noticed the circled lower highs and lower lows? So while I'm playing a quick rebound of dollar and shorting the stock market, I know unless UUP can go above 23 and stay there for a good week or two, until I see that higher lows and higher highs (then I will short the heck of S&P), I will cover and go long. So assuming the downtrend on dollar will continue into year end 2009, S&P will continue edge up and so does gold.



Trend is your friend.</blockquote>


If I am going long I may, <strong>MAY</strong>, try and catch a bottom. But, if I am shorting, which is what I mostly do when trading, which I am not doing right now except for the Panda Challenge, I do not try and catch a top. I wait for the down trend to establish itself. I have learned this works for me the hard way.</blockquote>


To me, regardless short or long, I try to ride the trend and get in LATE and get out EARLY, just like you've described to wait patient for the trend to establish and prove itself. Man, I almost forget about panada challenge.... too busy with real money lately, lol.</blockquote>


I always tell myself to be patient and wait. But, most of the time I do not. And it ends up costing me.</blockquote>


I typically start a position with 25 shares and 4 points stop (not applying to anything less than $20 or options), so the most I will lose is $100. If it moves in my favor, then I will add to my positions when it pulls back establishing higher lows or breakout with new highs. Nothing goes straight up or down, you will always have chance to add at the right time. The key is to have some skin in the game early with tight stops. Once it start working for you, then you can add and move up the stops.</blockquote>
Thanks. Half of the time when I short, I am not really shorting, I am entering bear call spreads which limit my losses. But, it would be interesting to put them on a bit at a time.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1258759439][quote author="awgee" date=1258759167][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258757879]This is a little off the topic, but very important so I'd like to share it here.



Attached is a daily chart on UUP (US dollar ETF), we are clearly still in a down trend, noticed the circled lower highs and lower lows? So while I'm playing a quick rebound of dollar and shorting the stock market, I know unless UUP can go above 23 and stay there for a good week or two, until I see that higher lows and higher highs (then I will short the heck of S&P), I will cover and go long. So assuming the downtrend on dollar will continue into year end 2009, S&P will continue edge up and so does gold.



Trend is your friend.</blockquote>


If I am going long I may, <strong>MAY</strong>, try and catch a bottom. But, if I am shorting, which is what I mostly do when trading, which I am not doing right now except for the Panda Challenge, I do not try and catch a top. I wait for the down trend to establish itself. I have learned this works for me the hard way.</blockquote>


To me, regardless short or long, I try to ride the trend and get in LATE and get out EARLY, just like you've described to wait patiently for the trend to establish and prove itself. Man, I almost forget about panada challenge.... too busy with real money lately, lol.</blockquote>




LOL... in Panda's Challenge BT you are in last place.. and Panda is in second to last place.
 
Under Obama, the number of food stamp recipients has climbed by about 10 million over the past two years, resulting in a program that now feeds 1 in 8 Americans and nearly 1 in 4 children.



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/28/us/20091128-foodstamps.html?hp">Obama's Legacy</a>









hat tip to No-Vas
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1259907163]Under Obama, the number of food stamp recipients has climbed by about 10 million over the past two years, resulting in a program that now feeds 1 in 8 Americans and nearly 1 in 4 children.



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/28/us/20091128-foodstamps.html?hp">Obama's Legacy</a>









hat tip to No-Vas</blockquote>


Oh, Dude! I totally missed the 2007 election. I can't believe it.
 
98% of eligible recipents in Missiouri take "nutritional aid" (renamed under 43) while only 4% in OC do so.



When did being hungry become shameful?



It's moments like this I can't wait to get out of this self absorbed shithole. I can literally count the minutes.
 
I can't provide any evidence that the people of Orange County are too prideful to take food stamps.



However, if the net income threshold for qualification is $1,984/month or less for a family of three and if the rent in OC for something with more than one bedroom is around $1400, it follows that folks who would be eligible for food stamps probably cannot afford to live in Orange County. It makes me wonder if that national "food stamp" map is not really a national "poverty line" map.



From <a href="http://www.centeronbudget.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1269">A Quick Guide to Food Stamps</a>:



Determining Eligibility



To be eligible for benefits, a household?s income and resources must meet three tests:



* Its gross monthly income ? that is, its income before any of the program?s deductions are applied ? generally must be at or below 130 percent of the poverty line. For a family of three, the poverty line in federal fiscal year 2010 is $1,526 a month. Thus, 130 percent of the poverty line for a three-person family is $1,984 a month, or about $23,800 a year. The poverty level is higher for bigger families and lower for smaller families.

* Its net income, or income after deductions are applied, must be at or below the poverty line.

* Its assets must fall below certain limits: households without an elderly or disabled member must have assets of $2,000 or less, and households with an elderly or disabled member must have assets of $3,000 or less.



What counts as income? The Food Stamp Program counts cash income from all sources, including earned income (before payroll taxes are deducted) and unearned income, such as cash assistance, Social Security, unemployment insurance, and child support.



What counts as an asset? Generally, amounts that could be available to the household to purchase food, such as amounts in bank accounts, are counted as an asset. Items that are not accessible, such as the household?s home, personal property, and retirement savings, are not counted. Most automobiles are not counted.



Who is not eligible? Some categories of people are not eligible for food stamps regardless of their income or assets, such as individuals who are on strike, all undocumented immigrants, and certain legal immigrants. Unemployed childless adults are limited to three months of food stamps every three years in many areas of the country, though this time limit currently is temporarily suspended in most states because of the recession.
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1259908114][quote author="awgee" date=1259907163]Under Obama, the number of food stamp recipients has climbed by about 10 million over the past two years, resulting in a program that now feeds 1 in 8 Americans and nearly 1 in 4 children.



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/28/us/20091128-foodstamps.html?hp">Obama's Legacy</a>









hat tip to No-Vas</blockquote>


Oh, Dude! I totally missed the 2007 election. I can't believe it.</blockquote>


Wasn't the point that he was going to CHANGE the previous administration's mistakes? It seems he has exacerbated them.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1259926634]98% of eligible recipents in Missiouri take "nutritional aid" (renamed under 43) while only 4% in OC do so.



When did being hungry become shameful?



It's moments like this I can't wait to get out of this self absorbed shithole. I can literally count the minutes.</blockquote>


It looks like you are inferring that if someone is eligible for food stamps, then they are hungry. And you are also saying that the only reason someone is not receiving food stamps when they are eligible is because they are ashamed. Once again, you make huge, false, assumptions with no evidence to back up your thesis leading to illogical conclusions.
 
The U.S. nonfarm payroll report was a huge surprise and a complete disconnect from just about everything we saw regarding the U.S. labour market in November. This is not to suggest that the pace of decline in employment is failing to subside, but rather the magnitude of the improvement in the so called second derivative. There was absolutely nothing in the i) claims data, ii) ISM manufacturing data, iii) ISM non-manufacturing data, iv) ADP report, and v) Challenger hiring and firing data that would have pointed to the direction of such a small decline in nonfarm payrolls (-11,000 in November).



It should be duly noted that the household survey showed a 227k increase in November, but this recouped just a fraction of the 1.8 million jobs destroyed in the previous three months. Against this background, the unemployment rate managed to tick down in November, to 10.0% from 10.2% in October. Perhaps President Obama should announce a job summit every month ? it seems to work :)



One gotta love the way those wall street gangsters playing this market. Sell off before the number coming out to make everyone believe the job report is going to be aweful, then "surprise" everyone with a "great" number and get all the mom and pops excited to buy stocks in the morning only to sell off in the afternoon. Of course, zombie banks once again leading the charge in the afternoon to bring Dow back into the positive territory. And today could mark the start of unwinding of this dollar carry trade for the last 6 months if dollar continue to rally off the low. With 97% people out there shorting gold, I'm expecting a massive short squeeze on dollar to happen overtime.S&P briefly touched 1119 this morning before the slide. I will keep watching the 1076-1080 support leve and wait for the confirmation of the 25 days MA to cross under 50day MA to seriously short this market.
 
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