Considering new purchase in VOC (Ciara) - Looking for advice

[no_vaseline_IHB]

irvine123 - you are absolutely right. and i am sorry if i came off as defensive. i do appreciate those on this board who give their two cents. it's just comments like "he hasn’t been doing his due diligence except reading internet message boards" are not particularly helpful. i will look in previous posts for the voc vs irvine debate and consider what people had to say. thanks.

AI is our resident troll/VOC salesperson. Anytime somebody exposes the dirty laundry surrounding VOC he/she/it? loses a customer.

Here is a Cliffs Notes summary on why VOC sucks.

I can empthaize with why the VOC is appealing to you. It's large, new, and available now. I think if you poke around a little bit you might find you have a number of better options – at a minimum, I think it's a lead pipe cinch you'll be able to buy 1/3 more house for the same money if you can wait one year.

Maybe even in the VOC, provided you can get over the outrageous HOA/Mello Roos, the toxic waste dump it's built on, or the Waste Management trash/recycling plant across the street and it's constant odor/dust. And I'm just getting warmed up!

 

[freedomCM_IHB]

Did you look at 92660 in newport beach? there are some newly renovated large houses in that range.

better weather, probably better schools, no pollution, better long term value (though they too will fall considerably over the next few years).

 

[asianinvasian_IHB]

And to AsianInvasion - I've a ton of diligence in the Irvine neighborhoods and know more about them than you ever will.

Apparantly not, since the house you're looking at isn't even in Irvine. LOLOLOLOL.

 

[frank69m_IHB]

it also just occurred to me that my question really wasn't about the voc vs. irvine debate - it was actually about whether people think prices still have a ways to go down. my initial point was that the ciara house has already been discounted about 33% from its peak 06/07 price. was wondering if people thought there was still substantial downside risk. sorry if i wasn't clear in my initial post and that we got so off-topic. thanks.

you need to decide you want value/size for your money or quality for your money. Those two doesn't go hand to hand. If you just want the biggest size of house, that is probably among the cheapest you can find in irvine for 4300 sq ft. Will price continue to go down from $975? I would say probably no more than another 10% to 15% if there is no blow up of any enviromental issues. IMO, VOC will always be the "value" neighborhood in Irvine until another similar one pops out.

Last sentence in that statement...VOC is not Irvine, it is in the city of Tustin, not even Tustin Ranch!

Oh, and don't forget about the OC John Wayne Airport. Planes fly right overhead before they land.

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

Last sentence in that statement...VOC is not Irvine, it is in the city of Tustin, not even Tustin Ranch!

Oh, and don't forget about the OC John Wayne Airport. Planes fly right overhead before they land.

Actually, VoC spans both Tustin AND Irvine. Half of Columbus Grove is Irvine. Think Alexandria and Lantana...

The planes going into John Wayne fly over Columbus Square, not Columbus Grove, where the home in question (Ciara) is.

 

[ABC123_IHB]

As much as I like open space and not having to back to neighbors, I think your #2 is a potential negative. I imagine the noise from Jamboree and Warner as well as people heading to the District would be quite loud and I would be fearful that the Jeffrey Hobo might migrate to that un-maintained bike path and bring along some of his friends especially as the economy deteriorates more. I've heard rumors that the IPD likes to dump the undesirables to the next city over so I would be concerned being so close to the channel.

2. Backs to the channel. Can’t decide if this is a plus or minus. No houses behind, which is nice especially considering the small yard, so there’s no one looking down on you. But, then again also closer to Jamboree noise and possible odor from channel?? Supposed bike or walking path back there also looks completely un-maintained.

 

[redline122_IHB]

Hello All - I've been reading the blogs here for some time and appreciate all the sage advice given to members. Having said that, my wife and I are considering purchasing the last Ciara home in the tract. It is a plan 2 (4237 sq ft) mostly on one level - i think most of you are familiar with it. It has about $75K of pre-plotted options (though we value those options at closer to $50K since we would not have otherwise purchased some of those). It is being offered for $1.15M, though i believe they would be willing to take substantially less - maybe $1.05-1.1M? Throw in the $10K CA tax rebate for new homes and the $15K my realtor is willing to kick back to me and it probably works out to about around $975K base (if you back out the cost of the options). This represents about a 33% discount from the peak prices of mid $1.4M base back in late '06. $975K also works out to about 230/sq ft. So it seems like a very good deal. But,....

There are a few things to consider when purchasing the house (regardless of where it is):

1. First and foremost... do the NUMBERS make sense. The 33% discount you are referring to is a misnomer. Discounts are given as a courtesy... what you are referring to is the decline in the home prices. I know... I am being a little uptight about the wording... but let's NOT mistaken the "discount" as a gimme from the seller.

2. The "options" to any new build of a home (esp. in the OC) are typically overpriced. I remember when we priced out our options through the builder... it was 300% more expensive. We opted to get the upgrades done after we got the keys to the new home. In your case, research how much it would cost to get the work done through Home Depot and other contractors for the options work. Call around for estimates. Build a spreadsheet and note the pricing. Many contractors will give you a "high level" estimate. You can use the "lower" numbers you will get to help you support your LOWBALL offer

3. Determine how long this house has been burning on books - I am assuming that this is the builder's LAST home. Ask exactly what day the house was built and passed the final inspection by the city/county. The older it is... the more inclined the builder WILL truly discount the house.

4. Ask your realtor to run some 3 month comps on the area where this house is. Don't just let them give you a list of homes that have been LISTED, but those that have SOLD in the past three months with similar bed/bath counts and square footage. If nothing has been successfully sold in the past 3 months... have them run the search UNTIL you get about 10 (purely arbitrary) hits or so. Again, this will show you how stale the market could be in the area of interest.

5. Small lot... smelly channel... Jamboree... play these a DOWN points with your realtor... but that you MAY consider this home... with a low price. It's only fair that the builder takes some brunt of the negatives since they picked the lot to build this house on.

6. And remember... if you never asked for any reductions (in an offer letter)... then consider the money lost... and the answer to always be NO.

Good luck - however you decide.

 

[MojoJD_IHB]

The planes going into John Wayne fly over Columbus Square, not Columbus Grove, where the home in question (Ciara) is.

actually, they dont go over either, they are north of the 55. I sat outside a week ago while I was checking out Columbus Square and watched one in the distance. the noise is insignificant.

 

[FairEconomist_IHB]

33% is about what I predicted for the Irvine price drop (a little less - I expected high 30's). But high-end stuff is lagging and probably has some substantial drop left. I would consider that the 1.4M peak price was too high, even by the bubble standards. Was it just an asking price?

 

[bbyikes_IHB]

I think they did sell some in that price range. What would you say is the remaining "substantial drop" and what do you base that on? Just wondering. Thx.

 

[bkshopr_IHB]

When the insiders and knowledgeable experts on this board are saying a big NO the chances are they are more right than wrong.

Imagine you are on the "Do you want to be a millionaire game show ?" and Regis asked you a question and you don't know and that $1 million is at stake. Your lifeline is to ask the audience and most of the audience is saying a NO. Are you going to choose the opposite answer?

Here is a good clue to validate posters credibility: Click on the member list or their handle and look at their seniority standing then look at the "Thank You" at the bottom. That usually mean that they have been either helpful or contributed good posts that helped to educate others.

Rule of thumb is not to totally trust members with just a few "Thank You"s