Any Educated Guesses to where 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates will be in 2009/2010?

[quote author="awgee" date=1257071941][quote author="Look4house" date=1257059496][quote author="awgee" date=1213499632]10% to 15% in 2010</blockquote>


Haha. I know this was meant to be a joke. Asking for a prediction is often useless, predicting something that you have no clues, priceless.</blockquote>


Most thought I was joking when I said we were selling our home in the summer of 2005.

Most thought I was joking when I said how far house prices would fall.

And most thought I was joking in 2005 when gold was $420 per ounce and I said it was going to $1000.

But I have no clues.</blockquote>


Yeah... you're a tinfoil hat wearing cluesless fool. You haven't been right about anything. Hell, you haven't even experienced what it is like to buy a house during a bubble. No one should listen to you. You just make stuff up and don't even understand local housing markets or know of things that only a select few know about.



Got CDO?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1257071941][quote author="Look4house" date=1257059496][quote author="awgee" date=1213499632]10% to 15% in 2010</blockquote>


Haha. I know this was meant to be a joke. Asking for a prediction is often useless, predicting something that you have no clues, priceless.</blockquote>


Most thought I was joking when I said we were selling our home in the summer of 2005.

Most thought I was joking when I said how far house prices would fall.

And most thought I was joking in 2005 when gold was $420 per ounce and I said it was going to $1000.

But I have no clues.</blockquote>


It is irrelevant whether you were a hero or trying to save the world in 2005. Name ONE top economist that is on board with your expert prediction of 10-15% ineterst rate in 2010. Well, if you are such a genius, the President should have ask you to be his top economic advisor. Why bother to post your prediction on this forum?
 
Ad hominem there. So the only people who you listen to are appointed by the President? Do we all need to list our CPA, CFP, PhD, FAE and other credentials next to our names?



Even if awgee is Obama's top economic adviser, I won't listen to him or anyone.
 
[quote author="Astute Observer" date=1257142991]So the only people who you listen to are appointed by the President? Do we all need to list our CPA, CFP, PhD, FAE and other credentials next to our names?

</blockquote>


Not sure where you draw this conclusion from. Making things up is not a good idea. Save your time and energy please.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1257139886][quote author="awgee" date=1257071941][quote author="Look4house" date=1257059496][quote author="awgee" date=1213499632]10% to 15% in 2010</blockquote>


Haha. I know this was meant to be a joke. Asking for a prediction is often useless, predicting something that you have no clues, priceless.</blockquote>


Most thought I was joking when I said we were selling our home in the summer of 2005.

Most thought I was joking when I said how far house prices would fall.

And most thought I was joking in 2005 when gold was $420 per ounce and I said it was going to $1000.

But I have no clues.</blockquote>


It is irrelevant whether you were a hero or trying to save the world in 2005. Name ONE top economist that is on board with your expert prediction of 10-15% ineterst rate in 2010. Well, if you are such a genius, the President should have ask you to be his top economic advisor. Why bother to post your prediction on this forum?</blockquote>


I can not name any top economist who had or has the same views as I do; thank goodness. Economists are notorious for being wrong. That is why they are economists and not hedge fund managers. Kind of the old, there are those who teach and those who do. If any top economists or less than top economists had the same view as I, I would have serious self doubts.

And my predictions and actions were not based on any original thoughts I had. I read the writings of people who make money and figured out what I thought was correct. I was not taking kudos for original thought or claiming to be a genius. I was not claiming to be a hero or trying to save the world. I never claimed to be an expert.

I was just pointing out how clueless you were in calling me clueless when you had absolutely no idea of what you were talking about. And as you are doing once again. Your ad hominem attacks are transparent, without merit, and useless.

But, now that you bring it up, I would do a much better job of economic advisor to the President than those he is getting advice from now, except for maybe Volcker. Seriously.

Why shouldn't I post my prediction on this forum?
 
If they go up - Hooray! Prices will fall. If they stay the same - Hooray! Business will continue. If they fall - damn, another refi boom. Rates since 2000 have never been higher than 7.0%. Since 1990 they've never been above 10%. Nearly 20 years of sub 10% rates is quite a track record. Could we spike into the 10's? Sure, if that happens home buying will be the least of your concerns.



Remember, for those "gray" enough to recall, people still bought and sold homes in the early 1980's even with double digit rates.



My .02c,



Soylent Green Is People.
 
[quote author="Soylent Green Is People" date=1257148302]If they go up - Hooray! Prices will fall. If they stay the same - Hooray! Business will continue. If they fall - damn, another refi boom. Rates since 2000 have never been higher than 7.0%. Since 1990 they've never been above 10%. Nearly 20 years of sub 10% rates is quite a track record. Could we spike into the 10's? Sure, if that happens home buying will be the least of your concerns.



Remember, for those "gray" enough to recall, people still bought and sold homes in the early 1980's even with double digit rates.



My .02c,



Soylent Green Is People.</blockquote>
Yeah, I remember.

My father bought a duplex three houses from the sand in Manhattan Beach, rented out the back apartment, and two of the rooms in the main house in order to make the payments, and when interest rates went down, he refi'ed. I did not care to having others living with us, but I sure did like growing up at the beach.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1257147832][quote author="Look4house" date=1257139886][quote author="awgee" date=1257071941][quote author="Look4house" date=1257059496][quote author="awgee" date=1213499632]10% to 15% in 2010</blockquote>


Haha. I know this was meant to be a joke. Asking for a prediction is often useless, predicting something that you have no clues, priceless.</blockquote>


Most thought I was joking when I said we were selling our home in the summer of 2005.

Most thought I was joking when I said how far house prices would fall.

And most thought I was joking in 2005 when gold was $420 per ounce and I said it was going to $1000.

But I have no clues.</blockquote>


It is irrelevant whether you were a hero or trying to save the world in 2005. Name ONE top economist that is on board with your expert prediction of 10-15% ineterst rate in 2010. Well, if you are such a genius, the President should have ask you to be his top economic advisor. Why bother to post your prediction on this forum?</blockquote>


I can not name any top economist who had or has the same views as I do; thank goodness. Economists are notorious for being wrong. That is why they are economists and not hedge fund managers. Kind of the old, there are those who teach and those who do. If any top economists or less than top economists had the same view as I, I would have serious self doubts.

And my predictions and actions were not based on any original thoughts I had. I read the writings of people who make money and figured out what I thought was correct. I was not taking kudos for original thought or claiming to be a genius. I was not claiming to be a hero or trying to save the world. I never claimed to be an expert.

I was just pointing out how clueless you were in calling me clueless when you had absolutely no idea of what you were talking about. And as you are doing once again. Your ad hominem attacks are transparent, without merit, and useless.

But, now that you bring it up, I would do a much better job of economic advisor to the President than those he is getting advice from now, except for maybe Volcker. Seriously.

Why shouldn't I post my prediction on this forum?</blockquote>


In a weird way, I sort of see a 45 year old version of myself in Awgee. I understand the hidden meaning of what he is talking about in that post. The main stream economist is sort of like a false prophet where 99% are telling lies, 35% tell some lies and some truth and 1% will speak the truth. The secret key is having the discernment of who is lieing and who is telling the truth.
 
This thread is a good companion to today's blog post. Predicting anything, whether interest rates or housing prices or anything else, is really hard, and people usually want to forget when their predictions didn't come true.
 
Conforming rates WILL be between 6 and 7% in Q3 and Q4 of next year. Jumbo + 100-200 bps.



Rates are roughly 5% now, while the Treasury curve is artificially held down, and the MBS spread is artificially narrowed. I figures 1-1.5% rise in rates is very reasonable given the sunset of the Ts and MBS buying programs.



I wouldn't expect higher rates. Awgee's predictions require significantly elevated inflation to take hold. Such a scenario is not out of the question. Though given 10%+ unemployment and <70% capacity utilization, I can't see inflation as much a threat in the near term...
 
These are a couple of quotes:



"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."

?Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator









"<em>Livermore suggests that making money, big money, you have to be right and sit tight. This is the kiss of death for most traders and investors. Often being right is doing something that the masses deem foolish, stupid, unpatriotic, you name it. To be right, investors face isolation, ridicule, and labels. This pressure is simply too much for most individuals. The drive for social acceptance from group is very strong in humans. It?s easier for the psyche to get slaughtered as a group than stand alone and be right. Even those that have the discipline to stand alone and be right, it is often very hard to sit tight long enough to make the really big money.</em>" - Unknown
 
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