Announcing the Irvine Housing Forums!

Z

zovall_IHB

New member
The past few months have been great for the blog. We've been able to post many articles that have generated even more comments. From reading all the comments, it's obvious that there are a lot of Irvine residents that are interested in various topics and communities within the city. We've got a very well informed group here and it would be nice to have a place to discuss all kinds of Irvine Housing related topics. And so the Irvine Housing Blog Forums have been created: <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/ ">http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/ </a>





Check it out and post whatever you want related to Irvine Housing (ie your own reports on visits to Models, updates on pricing at various tracts, questions regarding various tracts and villages, the future Irvine villages, etc.). If things pick up there, we can add categories later. Right now, this should suffice as far as facilitating communication between all of us.





Ultimately, we'd like to have comments from Blog posts integrated into the forum discussions. If anyone is experienced in PHP, Wordpress, and Vanilla and wants to take this on, let me know! :)
 
Great site, Zovall - well written and informative. I think it's interesting what's going on in Irvine and is indicative of what will be happening throughout Orange County. But I do have to ask - is it really worth paying the premium to live in Irvine? I get it - it's a nice place to live - good schools, well maintained roads and landscaping...but when you take into account the price difference (including cost of homes, mello roos, other property taxes, association fees)between Irvine and other OC towns, is it really justifiable? For those of you living in Irvine, what is it about this city that makes so you happy to live there?
 
Great to get the forums up and going! As a prospective, but bubble-convinced, buyer I am waiting for prices to continue their drop. I have this pricing info to share from over the weekend:



Got a call (on the list) from John Laing's Four Quartets on Friday (29Dec06) afternoon.



They reportedly renegotiated a substantial drop in land prices from Irvine Co (made it sound like it had occured that day), and they are claiming to pass it along completely to the buyers to get prices down and inventory moving again.



The unit we looked at late in the summer (probably Sept) dropped from ~$670k to $616k (they were refunding their previous buyers). She said that all of the Woodbury and Portola Springs communities that still had land (phases) to purchase from Irvine Co. were effected, but it was of course up to the builder whether they pass all the savings along. Lennar got a cut they should be applying at La Casella.



We stopped in at Decada and they have big reductions from our October visit there, but the salesman didn't attribute it to any event.



It appears that in addition to the general slowdown, Irvine is essentially competing with Tustin 's Villages of Columbus, and can't dictate that prices stay high like they perhaps used to do.



schb
 
Thanks for all that info on the new housing developments! The prices really need to come down to make room for the whopping mello roos they charge.
 
$670k to $617k is the icing off the cake. They haven't eaten any of the cake yet.



Let them eat cake whilst additional subprime lenders turn out the lights and lock the doors.
 
In the overall price, it is icing. If it was truly all land cost reduction, it's good to see another solid sign of weakness in the equation that leads to these overpriced places. Basically, I'm encouraged that Irvine is feeling the pain too, because they reportedly have a very heavy hand in approving the prices for which the end residences are sold.
 
socalhousingbubble,



Thanks for the post. I am also interested in Portola Springs (but not at current prices). Two questions:



(1) What sort of control does the Irvine Co. have over the merchant builders' pricing? Could you explain the legal structure, etc.?



(2) What exactly was the pricing at Decada when you recently visited?



BTW, the phase openings seem to have slowed down dramatically at Portola Springs -- I've been tracking Vientos, Decada, and San Carlos. I'd be nervous if I bought in Phase I; could be looking at a dirt lot instead of a community park, etc. As you can probably tell from the aforementioned communities, I am a prospective first time buyer.
 
I've been tweaking the forum so if the formatting on a prior post is messed up, that's why. I tried to fix a few of them (hope no one minds). Thanks everyone for all the input! I think we're off to a great start!
 
<p>Based on the excellent local research this has become another "go to" housing bubble site. I have owned 2 houses that went down after I bought (1 previously in OC). After moving back to the area its not easy having to wait to buy again but I take heart watching these posts until the time is finally right. Its more enjoyable knowing we are on the backside of the slope. </p>

<p>We will have to move out of our current apartment in Tustin Ranch because they are upgrading so we will have to decide whether to buy by midyear or rent another year or more. I haven't ruled out buying but it looks like another year or more of shakeout to go. My target drop before getting serious is 30%, although it could easily drop another 20% beyond that. The quality of this blog will help me decide when to get serious. Keep up the good work zovall!</p>
 
<p>skeptic-</p>

<p>The Decada plan 4, with a bunch of "builder had to go ahead an chose" options (they were actually pretty good) went from $740k (Oct) to $675k (early Jan). There were still many spiffs for flooring/closing. I don't have any info on where their other plans ended up, but I'm sure they had spiffs, too.</p>

<p>I've heard that Irvine Co basically has to approve builder pricing, and in addition to selling the land, get some cut of the profit on the house. The builders are not allowed to lower prices without some fairly serious blessing.</p>

<p>The Portola phases are way underperforming and are very slow. Sendero was originally supposed to be grand opening in October, and they postponed things by 3 months, I think from lack of demand and to try to sell through 4 Quartets (also John Laing) at Woodbury. Their latest date is 20Jan, when the big pricing reveal should come. I know at least a few other of the Tustin Legacy communities are supposed to have phase releases the same day, many with price adjustments (downward) from previous phases.</p>

<p>It's all heading down at a measurable clip, but it still feels like slow motion. It is the housing market, not the stock market.</p>

<p>Should be very interesting to see how this unfolds.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>

<p> </p>
 
I'm glad those prices at Decada (and elsewhere) are coming down! Arborel in Turtle Ridge, Mericourt (not in a village per se) near Northpark), and Decada in Portola Springs are all the same exact tract plan. The plan 4 really appeals to me - I think you could configure it as a 4bd/3ba - and it has a nice island kitchen that opens into the great room - it's detached (but barely ;) ) and it has a small yard.





I remember when the Plan 4 at Mericourt (off Culver just north of 405) was at $660k or so. When I went to see Decada during the Portola Springs opening, I was surprised that they were asking SO much more in the FIRST phase! I guess if people were willing to pay that much, the Irvine Company had no problem taking the money. A $65k drop is very nice although that just brings it back to where it would have been early 2006 I think.





I don't remember what the Arborel Plan 4's sold for initially but I think it was in the $500s.
 
<p>Zovall, I haven't been, but isn't Mericourt just north of the 5?</p>

<p>I think Decada #4 will fall more in 2007, perhaps that same amount ($65k) again. </p>

<p>Agree with you on the niceties of the plan. Another similar content residence (although attached) is Clarendon #3 at Columbus Grove.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
Yes, you're right! Mericourt is just north of the 5 :) I don't know why I wrote 405 above.





I'll have to check out Clarendon! I haven't been to many of the Villages of Columbus homes although I did check out Kensington Court. I'll try to make a trip out there maybe this weekend.
 
<p>Found some 2005 Mericort (now Decada) pricing info archived online. [Turns out there isn't "U" in Mericort.]</p>

<p>Lot# Plan Price


50 2BR $593,000


51 3CR $623,000


52 4CMR $653,000


49 1BR $573,000


48 4BR $628,000


47 3AR $603,000


46 2CR $593,000


Sales by priority list taking place on June 4</p>

<p>So the plan 4s were $628 & $653 back then. </p>

<p>-SCHB</p>
 
Nice work SCHB!





I found a couple of Meric<strong>o</strong>rt properties for sale (flippers):




61 Night Bloom - Plan 2 - $700,000 - MLS #: P544430

55 Night Bloom - Plan 3 - $725,000 - MLS #: S46106

>

They've reduced their prices but they'll still make a little money if they find a GF. I'd rather buy in Decada especially since the prices have come down (although Decada will have huge Mello Roos and I think the ones at Mericort are minimal if they even exist).
 
<p>Comments by Irvine Company chairman Donald Bren in the OC Biz Journal (1/8/2007) on housing: "Our internal forecast here is that within six months, we'll see a distinct turn.... Not a dramatic turn, but a positive turn." "I've been saying this for a long time: The homebuilding industry cannot create housing to equal the demand for housing in California, and in Orange County. That's going to be an interesting challenge for builders, as we come back. And it's important to the economy." Asked whether home prices will rise in 2007, Bren said, "I wouldn't go that far."</p>

<p>Bren then contradicts his earlier statements, "Over the last few years, builders were building at a rate we've never seen before. They overbuilt.... That was really instigated and supported by loose lending policies. People who were not qualified to buy a home, or who just barely qualified, would buy a home and receive a mortgage from companies that based right here in Southern California. They're still doing it today, which I'm suprised about, even though the Fed has created more stringent lending policies .... You can make a loan on your home, buy a suit of clothes and borrow on your automobile, fund junior's college education, and put some money in your pocket and go to Las Vegas. And there are many folks out there that have done that over the last five years, two or three times."</p>
 
<p><em>"People who were not qualified to buy a home, or who just barely qualified, would buy a home and receive a mortgage from companies that based right here in Southern California. They're still doing it today, which I'm suprised about, even though the Fed has created more stringent lending policies .... "</em></p>

<p>The folding of the subprime lenders has begun, so we have at least <u>started</u> the cleansing process in getting the zero-down neg-am jokers out of the market. I suspect the results of this will start to show (in traffic, pricing, and closing) up in the next few months, but it is still early in the process.</p>

<p>Like Chris Thornberg has said, this all takes plenty of time to unwind. Be patient but prepared.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top