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I was in Madison Wisconsin for the 80-82 recession. In Madison 1982 there were no jobs available. None. You could not get a job flipping burgers, mowing lawns, or shoveling snow. Families had to resort to food banks every day. Layoffs were a new phenomena. People who got laid off were sure they...

2012 A.D.

Retail is getting clobbered. Apartment owners who thought that people getting foreclosed would mean their vacancies would go down are finding vacancies at a near all time high. Rents will be forced down. We just signed a deal in Corona our light industrial that lowered our rent from 1.05 to .65...

BV - Ed Thorpe did not beat the market by his covered investments, he beat the market by charging other people money to manage their investments. Ed Thorpe was a probability mathematician, who do you think taught him the statistics and computer programing he needed to know and who gave him his...

Black Vault - no, your analysis of my stock market investing is 100% off. I made money from 1983- 1997 through DUMB LUCK and I was so smart I knew it was DUMB LUCK (Pfizer). That was my point. There is no winning or losing this argument for another ten years. That is also my point. It ain't over...

When people say that the stock market out performs real estate....well it depends on the market, and it depends on the real estate. I can honestly say that had I invested in the Dow Jones index in 1972 instead of commercial real estate that I would be a little behind in cash flow today. My...

Most of my investment is in commercial real estate as the principal owner with other members of my family. I have always tried to earn enough through work that I could plow all my savings from real estate back into real estate. The idea is that when I retire, I can live off the rents. So far, it...

The idea that the modern stock market is more of a Ponzi scheme based on 401K investors is actually my view of the stock market. Just two observations: 1. In the the book "The Pig and the Python" the author looks at baby boomer demographics to estimate when the market will rise due to the...

I think I learned something valuable from this discussion. Lots of people simply don't care whether a company ever distributes the income or not. It simply doesn't bother them. As long as they think they can find somebody who will pay them more for their ownership at a later date, they are...

eeerrr...Mr. Condo.....no you don't want to compare portfolios over my LAST 50 years! Yes the voice of experience is talking. Don't ANY of you guys get the concept behind putting a post up for the purposes if discussion and learning or do you just HAVE to score points? Come on, GROW a...

Another thing that just occurred to me, if you reinvest your dividends what do you get next year? More dividends! So reinvesting dividends in a company that distributes dividends ultimately buys you a larger income stream in the future. In the future you can stop reinvesting the dividends and...

I don't know how anybody could short the market over a 50 year time span. You have to pay money to hold a short position. By the way, I originally posted this thread to learn something about how markets operate, not to claim a position and try and defend it. I have heard many arguments about why...

Yes, this a problem with trying to track companies that have "gone out of business". When I read the 50% os NYSE stocks were out of business 50 years later, I never could verify it because of all the mergers, buyouts, etc.

MOST businesses fail. It depends on how you define it, but more than 50% businesses on the New York Stock exchange in 1947 were out of business by 1997 and that does NOT include those businesses that were bought out. Exactly how long is the business cycle for most companies? On this blog we talk...

So far nobody has given me a convincing argument that the simple appreciation of a common stock value should be the chief reason to purchase stock in a company. Without dividends it still seems to me that you are setting yourself up to eventually fail, you just hope you get out before the crash...

In the 1930's publicly held companies acquired a bad reputation in the stock market. In order to get investors back in the game they started to emphasize dividends. "Hey give your money to us and we will give you back some every year". Companies such as General Motors only retained earnings with...

The idea that our stock market valuation is based on companies that "earn money" but never actually give anybody any money still confuses me. Sooner or later somebody has to actually get hold of the "earned money". Constantly deferring the payment to the next generation common stock holder...

If publicly held companies do not pay substantial dividends, then when is the common stock holder supposed to get their investment back? So far, it seems like the public has bought the idea that you make your money in the stock market through price appreciation of the common stock. In the long...

Sometimes I just do not get the point of this critism of Obama. If Mc Cain had been elected we would not be facing trillion dollar deficits? If I remember right, McCain's plan was no plan at all....