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  1. W

    Economic Commentary

    I can't provide any evidence that the people of Orange County are too prideful to take food stamps. However, if the net income threshold for qualification is $1,984/month or less for a family of three and if the rent in OC for something with more than one bedroom is around $1400, it follows...
  2. W

    Safety of ETFs

    Hopefully, you've read the articles linked above. As one answer to your original question, you can look at a chart of FAZ. It was stellar when the financials collapsed, but starting in April of this year, it flat-lined. So the price fell from a peak of about $100/share to around $5/share...
  3. W

    My Trading Blog

    BondTrader, I took a look at your site. Thanks for sharing what you're up to.
  4. W

    My Trading Blog

    I looked up Black Vault CM in the Member List and did not see a web link. I noticed, though, he has 999 posts. So he's got to come back, if for no other reason than to make that 1,000th post!
  5. W

    NY Times interactive tool: The Jobless Rate for People Like You

    Wow. I remember being told, as a high school student, that college graduates earn more than those without a degree. That should have been enough to motivate me to get a degree, but I didn't stick with it. Looking at this chart, it is also apparent that having a college degree helps...
  6. W

    Economic Commentary

    Good luck with your job search, BondTrader. I too have appreciated your Economic Commentary.
  7. W

    In/Deflation Debate Summed Up

    Panda, You're asking if interest rates can go up while we're still in deflation. I don't have an answer, but here are some questions that may help: The Fed seems to have made it clear it will not raise rates for awhile. However, seems to me they have also made it clear once they...
  8. W

    I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

    I failed to mention a number with my claim on Friday, 10-09-2009. The DJIA closed at 9864.94. The DJIA closed at 9885.80 on Monday,10-12-09 so I lose. Still, I'll be very interested to see where things go from here, especially after the bank earnings come out.
  9. W

    I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

    Disclaimer: I'm a noob and a nobody. Sorry if this is off-topic. Let me know, and I'll start a new topic if that is appropriate. All that said, I want to put out a claim that the markets are now at the top! What do you guys think? Is this 7-month bear rally behavior going to continue...
  10. W

    how does the Non-performing Loan work?

    I welcome someone more knowledgeable to answer the question. In the meantime, I suggest you may have been reading about non-performing portfolios of loans. You know, securitized loans that exist as a block. Say a bank owns a tranche of loans and the majority of the loans are not...
  11. W

    Reverse Mortgage: Friend or Foe?

    As a quick follow up to an earlier post I made on this thread. The Life Estate deal my mom made with that guy was for real and not a scam. Unfortunately, the economy has been rough on this guy and he has taken a financial beating. To wit, he has backed out of the deal (which is his legal...
  12. W

    The House Trap

    This thread is in response to IrvineRenter's blog post (09-07-2009): <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/irvine-boulevard-northwood-irvine/">The Royle Family</a>. My comment became a little too verbose for the blog comments section. I thought making this thread might also...
  13. W

    Obama ruining the country?

    Sigh. I knew I shouldn't have browsed into the politics section. First a disclaimer: I believe in God Almighty. I've been a republican all of my adult life. At the same time, I've also grown completely disenchanted with our government. I voted for Mr. Bush (and his father). I regret voting...
  14. W

    Forget escrows, here's what prices in Irvine are doing...

    <strong>Geotpf</strong>, Data doesn't lie, but it is often misinterpreted. So you have a graph that shows price per square foot (from sold houses) showing a flat line. The question is what does it mean? You suggest it means prices have bottomed. What are some other scenarios that might...
  15. W

    I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

    I'm glad you asked. It can't be good for our economy to be so dependent upon consumer spending, but the truth is, I had never before really looked at the historical numbers to see what the "normal" percentage is. So I just now went off to the Bureau of Economic Analysis and downloaded <a...
  16. W

    I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

    Disclaimer: since I'm just a Homeless Newbie, you should take whatever I say with a grain of salt. Personally, I still see a Great Depression II coming. I'd be curious to know if anyone else shares this view (which at this point in time either takes courage or stupidity since the media are...
  17. W

    HOLY SMOKES : Dow below 5,000 and S&P 500. Is this possible by Dec 31, 2009?

    Awgee, You said you were going to comment on the Fed paying interest on excess reserves. I would like to hear what you have to say.
  18. W

    HOLY SMOKES : Dow below 5,000 and S&P 500. Is this possible by Dec 31, 2009?

    Yes, Graphrix, I'm familiar with Doug Short's Four Bad Bears chart. It was not the reversal that surprised me, but the pop at the top. You can see in the chart that the upward rally velocity began to decelerate, as though the rally had gone as high as it could go. That was exactly where I...
  19. W

    HOLY SMOKES : Dow below 5,000 and S&P 500. Is this possible by Dec 31, 2009?

    Panda, I think we are already past the peak of the last rally. I think we will see market behavior like that of 2008 where there were ups and downs, but overall the Dow kept losing until there were a couple big drops and people suddenly realized they had lost 20% and could lose more, then...
  20. W

    HOLY SMOKES : Dow below 5,000 and S&P 500. Is this possible by Dec 31, 2009?

    Awgee, here are some excerpts from: <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081006a.htm">http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081006a.htm</a> <blockquote>Interest on Reserves The Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006 originally...
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