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Sorry…. But all young people have been brainwashed to think means testing is everything that ends with ist and phobe. It won’t happen. We will likely just have lower growth for the next decade.

Would the yield curve be inverted if the fed unloaded its balance sheet? I doubt it. The10 year should never be below 3% even during the worst of recessions. We should be over 5% right now and over 4% even if recession hits next year. But we won't be, because the indicator has been tampered...

Yes. And Powell now is worried he will be the next Burns, the opposite of his hero Volcker. He has motivation now to be remembered as the most hawkish chair since Volcker or die trying. I feel he wants to be fired for being too hawkish to salvage his legacy.

The dirty little secret is no serious central banker cares about employment. That’s just a mandate politicians put out there because politicians care about it. Everybody knows that if you take care of inflation, employment will take care of itself (so long as politicians don’t mess it up)...

Wow, somebody more bearish than me. You DO exist!

Now I wish I had more cash to buy… still I think the prices need to come down. Here’s hoping come next year

Right… but are they selling

I wonder if cal pac will extend their promotions to the sierra homes too. Those are selling a bit better than Lapis.

Are Marea homes detached except for driveway?

Core is sticky. It is VERY sticky. They will shock the system then leave it higher for longer. If they don’t do it now they will be back in q3 2023. The house prices will fall either way, but I would prefer sooner rather than later so I can move in sooner. We will find out in 2 weeks

Next FOMC, watch the dot plots. Then the futures will adjust again. We’ve been through this many times already this year. 50 again in February

I still think the fed goes another 50 in 2023 with two more 25s. I have no clue what the market is smoking…

If rates stay high enough for long enough, maybe. But I feel politics will make it hard for the Fed

:( I’m going to cry… saving for 2 years now and still can’t get a bigger place for the kid

The problem is this shouldn’t be more than 1.5. We throw around numbers like 2 years ago didn’t exist

These are all the high end homes though. I want to see the 20-30% drops in the smaller 2000sq ft units. Me getting cold called to buy Altair homes ain’t helping me

Thank you... :( now I can cry with less doubt.

Sadly, were any of those Irvine pacific? I suspect IP got smarter this time and took all the best land so they don’t mark down and force all the other builders to eat the losses from a downturn

Have they ever lowered their prices? Even during the housing fall of 2010 I only remember the other builders lowering their prices

I guess I will be counting on Powell to crush the global market and force the foreign investors to sell. No other way then.