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irvine123, Predicting collapsing home prices <strong>is </strong>seeing the glass half full. Low prices are a great thing for almost everybody except the few who are just about to sell and rent or downsize. I'm starting to feel like Benjamin Linus here. We're the good guys.

No prob profette. Basically it seems like a lot of people think that new homes built on land recently purchased from TIC are not highly substitutable goods, and that this means that TIC can engage in monopoly price setting and keep the price of new homes in Irvine near peak market (2005-2006)...

Home prices in OC will continue to drift down, and end the year down 10-15% in nominal terms as measured by Case Shiller. Inventory and active/pending ratios will remain historically high throughout the year, signaling further drops for 2009. In the second half of the year it will be easy to...

<p>This is huge for the RIAA. They believe that every time an existing medium is obsoleted, you should have to repurchase the same works in the new format. They could get away with it before because there was no easy way to move music from a record to a cassette, or from a cassette to a CD. But...

"what kind of affordability problem?" blackacre-seeker, Nobody hates you for owning. That's the thing, most of us would like to own a SFR in a nice neighborhood one day just like you. We just disagree about the best way to get to that point. If prices are poised to fall significantly...

"i would like to hear all the bears comments on why i should walk away from my 5k deposit." Are you really considering walking? If so I would suggest you have a lot more research to do about where prices are headed. If not, congrats and good luck.

Gee, here's an idea for making housing more affordable. Don't require developers to pay a $41 million bribe to build housing.

You can get tickets to both AMC and Regal (Edwards) 2 for $15 at Costco. No restrictions.

<p>IMHO 160 multiple is a high-end estimate.</p> <p>1) I believe IR cited this as an approximate break-even point for many owner-occupiers. In past busts prices have typically fallen to the point where they were low enough to attract cash flow positive investors. This would require multiples...

<p>larryk, Assuming that you have at least adequate exposure on the MLS, it all comes down to what kind of action you are seeing. Lots of showings and some offers means your prices is very close to being right. A few showings means you are within 10% or so. Very few showings or inquiries...

<p>There are really two seperate issues here. 1) Where to live 2) Whether to rent or buy (or sell, in the case of your current home).</p> <p>First, life is too short to "stick it out" somewhere you are not satisfied. If you like Ladera that much better, move back ASAP.</p> <p>Second, what...

<p>Hehe, I bet if IR got a $1 million windfall tomorrow he would still rent for the next couple of years. I know I would.</p>

<p>irvine123, the idea that people should pay more to own than rent is not well supported by either history or economic reasoning.</p> <p>Throughout most of the 90's (except possibly 1990, 1991, and 1999) it was almost always cheaper to own a home as opposed to renting a comparable home...

<p>Wow, lots of people like to start their handle with 'irvine'....</p> <p>Anyways... I think it is foolhardy for anyone to try to derive what the right ratio "should" be by coming up with complex calculations where you try to account for all the variables. Just too hard to do. Too many...

<p>More good stuff on this topic.</p> <p><a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/03/housing-supply-demand-imbalance.html">http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/03/housing-supply-demand-imbalance.html</a></p>

<p>There is a certain (majority?) percentage of the population that either doesn't understand or doesn't care about the current market situation when deciding whether or not to buy. Once they hit that point in their live where they're ready, they go out and get approved for a loan and buy...

<p>Janet's last point is completely right. It's the PE ratio stupid. It will always be the PE ratio stupid.</p> <p>Incomes don't really matter much in terms of predicting where prices "should" be. Sure, incomes matter at the top of a bubble, because eventually people just run out of enough...

Intriguing numbers indeed. Couple of things to keep in mind. First, rental price per square foot tends to go down considerably as the size of the unit increases. Second, 160 is a very conservative estimate in terms of where the bottom might lie. Numbers well below 160 have been seen in the...

<p>Owning a home as opposed to renting has long been an important social signal in American society. It's not only a right of passage into adulthood, but also a sign that you "have it together" financially because you have a good stable job and have been able to save up a down payment. People...

<p>Awesome stuff! Thanks!</p> <p>It still amazes me that some people actually think home price trends in Irvine over the next few years will be determined predominently by factors specific to Irvine.</p>