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On behalf of housing bears everywhere I'd like to accept red's complement. Most of us are willing to revise our opinions based on new evidence. I have never heard a bear say "It's always a bad time to buy" or "real estate is always a bad investment."

<p>sapporo,</p> <p>I think you misunderstood the point I was making. Yes, I agree with you completely that the difference in prices of comparable homes between Irvine and surrounding cities is not very high. Some people have been saying that this relationship will break down if home prices in...

<p>I think that the idea that Irvine Company's control over development will keep Irvine prices afloat is based on faulty economic reasoning. Irvine prices may fall less than the rest of OC, but if so it will be for other reasons such as demographic changes or an influx of newer, nicer...

There definitely are some very smart people who agree with you. You are probably right about the wealth effect being bigger this time. My opinion is that the evidence is not conclusive either way; we'll just have to wait and see.

<p>I wasn't really trying to argue for or against a bubble per se. I guess what I am curious about is where Irvine is headed as a housing market.</p> <p>There are some cities (Laguna Beach, Santa Monica, Honalulu) where everyone acknowleges that home prices have probably become permanently...

<p>I don't find anything depressing about the scenerio IrvineRenter outlined. Just because someone gets foreclosed due to an ARM reset on doesn't mean that they will loose their job. The only direct hit to the economy I can see is the decreased wealth effect of homeowners on consumer spending...

<p>"It was a tough decision to carry a $900k mortgage - but I am in LOVE with this house"</p> <p>"I only base what I say on my gut because I haven't done any research or reading....It just seems based on my circle of friends and colleages and I people I talk to that people (especially in L.A.)...

Percentage of MLS asking prices (condo and sfr only) at or below 5 times 2005 median city household income. Collected 02/03/07 from ziprealty.com and factfinder.census.gov. Irvine - 4.6% Temecula - 3.1% Newport Beach - 2.5% Ontario - 2.1% Moreno Valley - 2.0% Santa Ana...

<p>Brother,</p> <p>I read your comments on the other thread and you brought up a good point that I think a lot of people miss. Far and away, the most important thing that determines how well a school does in terms of test scores and other objective measures is the quality of the students...

It sure does reflect OC. <a href="http://www.dqnews.com/RRFor0107.shtm">Notices of default</a> to OC homeowners were up 116% in 4Q 2006 from 4Q 2005. And apparently, people can't pay their <a href="http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/archives/2007/02/late_oc_tax_payments_up_again.html">taxes</a>...

<p>I vote for sophisticated concept. When it comes to the housing bubble, it's pretty hard to tell the difference between the good arguments and the bad ones if you don't have at least some training in economics.</p> <p>"Why should rents and prices have anything to do with each other, I am...

<p>Red,</p> <p>In your opinion, what has changed about Irvine in the last 6 years to make it a better place to live relative to everywhere else than it was before?</p>

<p>Irvine has a reputation for excellent schools. It seems reasonable that some sort of premium is "baked in" to the price of homes in Irvine due to this benefit. What is everyone's opinion about he size of this premium? In other words, by what percentage (or perhaps it's constant?) would the...

<p>San Remo Villa, Westpark</p> <p>2/2, 976sf (plan c1) </p> <p>$1650 /month, 9 month lease ending in June 07</p>

Dual Income No Kids

If we are wrong, who says its so bad to not buy back in? Half the PITI on a $900K mortgage will rent a detached home in some of Irvine's best neighboorhoods. You can put the difference (which slowly declines as rents rise) in the stock market and watch it grow into a couple mil over 30 years...

<p>hbunny,</p> <p>Don't you see the problem here? You are basing perhaps the largest financial transaction of your life on gut feelings and conversations with aquaintences. In contrast those of us who believe prices will go down are using statistics and economic reasoning. Surely as an...

<p>hbunny, You think that all of the sudden rich people and high income DINKs everywhere are going to suddenly wake up, realize that OC is fantastic, and start moving here en mass. Why do you think that? And why now? Didn't they know about OC five years ago, ten years ago?The weather, the...

<p>In 1635, a rare Semper Augustus tulip bulb sold for 6,000 florins in the Netherlands (the average yearly income at the time was 150 florins).</p> <p>In the late 1980's prime properties in Tokyo's Ginza shopping district were selling for $100,000+ per square foot.</p> <p>At it's IPO in...

<p>"After everything is said and done I will be a income producer for about 1k a month."</p> <p>I'm a little confused. Could you explain what the above means exactly? The condo is paid off, and the 1K is what you are renting it for minus HOA/taxes/insurance? Thanks.</p>