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The GDP report seems to confirm deflationary recession with a GDP deflator of 0.8%. For that number to be in the ballpark with core inflation at 2.1% consumers must be substituting to less expensive goods. The NAR report shows a -22% Year over Year decrease in September, that is certainly...

Remember Milton Friedman: "<strong>inflation</strong> is always and <strong>everywhere</strong> a monetary phenomenon." There just is a delay between monetary inflation and price inflation. That is why Venezuela has only 18% inflation right now. Honestly looking at the data I...

I generally take a sampling of Roubini, Schiff, and Northern Trust. Roubini has been largely correct so far. I'm not sure on his decoupling hypothesis. If the US is willing to repeat the 1970s and move the stock market sidewise with high inflation I believe decoupling can occur. But...

Investors in MGIC are basically already betting the company will be bankrupt by 2010. The company is already trading at 0.2 price/book and the January 2010 puts are insanely expensive. The question is are the bonds that rely on insurance from MGIC accurately priced to reflect the 90%+ chance...

Okay I'll try to explain the chart that IR posted: Left hand side: 1) Lender provides cash to the borrower (they vet the borrower through a loan broker or directly). The borrower signs documents that explain the conditions of the loan with regards to interest rate, points (money...

Apartment Rents: Los Angeles 5.4% Orange 5.1% San Diego 5% Source: RealFacts/LA timeshttp://www.latimes.com/media/graphic/2007-10/33313158.gif Top 2 markets in Realfacts: Santa Clara County: 12.2% Seattle 12.4% Manhattan: Studio 4.8% 1BR 4.4% 2BR 5.6% 3BR 0.7%...

It says bank listing in the description so the bank took this back for 525k and is asking 510k.

Why buy when I can rent? This looks adequate for my needs:http://orangecounty.craigslist.org/apa/456491556.html

Correction if you can convince your spouse to sell. That is often much harder than getting the timing right no matter how nice a place you offer to rent.

The main disadvantage of those funds is the taxes since they generate mainly short term capital gains. Obviously they are also more risky.

Well at heart the problem is that Citigroup has too little capital. The fact they were using SIV as a vehicle to achieve that is irrelevant. Why should Citigroup not be forced to issue common stock or preferred stock at a sensible dividend yield. Why should banks that were conservative in...

Actually things are equally bad on an institutional level. The average REIT yield premium to 10Y treasuries over 5, 10, and 15 years is 101 bp, 120 bp, and 100bp. Currently equity REITs are yielding 3.79% and 10Y treasuries are yielding 4.73% for a discount of 94 bp. So to bring REIT...

awgee-I can tell you there are PhD economists who are making good money in the markets. I've seen the portfolios of some of them. Remember 1) law of large numbers - there are a lot of economists out there and 2) What really kills people when investing is trading fees. Several PhD economists I...

Since both office and apartments is my bread and butter I have been looking very quizzically at valuations in the past 3 years. I've seen 5% caps of retail and 6% caps on office. Neither of these capitalization rates is remotely sensible considering the high tenant improvements of both...

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=882728 I would rather commit suicide than do a PB to Irvine commute but 2/2 887 sf $430k ask sold for 300k 12/24/2004 so you should be able to beat them down to 350 maybe if you were actually serious.

Why such a long distance? In a few years i'm sure you will be able to get something decent in Pacific Beach (near San Diego) for that price point but I could not stand living in San Diego area as it is so far from civilization. I would rather wait patiently for something appealing in...

I think the service level is considerably higher at South Coast Plaza than shopping on Plaza Athenee. Also depends on the color of your skin it seems. You always get better treatment in high end shops if you're asian as opposed to white or if you have an asian girl with you. I have a friend...

Maybe I am too "idealistic" but I just could never see myself pursuing that lifestyle. I flew to Vegas last Wednesday and observed a group of "cougars" They showed up in a limo; typical 40 something single white females with sunburnt skin and bleached blonde hair. They spent the entire flight...

Real estate prices in the elegant and trendy “Saint Germain- des- Prés” district ( 6th arrondissement) in the heart of Paris hit a new record high during the 1st quarter 2007. The official average price per square meter for old and unoccupied apartments rose by 11.3% p.a. and stood at €9,003...

Isn't 7e arrondissement really expensive? Like north of 1000 euro/sqft expensive? Enjoy Paris it's a beautiful city with so many cute cafes!