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  1. O

    REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months.

    28% default rate when 90% of the loans they modified weren't even delinquent. Ouch. Why in the world would anyone put out a press release to announce that?
  2. O

    Economic Commentary

    The puts I have are part of a long strangle I threw up for BoA. I figured I could play the volatility of financials that way no matter which way the market moved. Of course BoA is at almost the exact same price right now as they were when I bought the options so I've lost out on almost 2...
  3. O

    Economic Commentary

    I've had some BoA puts for a while that are pretty underwater...
  4. O

    I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE TOPPED

    I think I read something once about a famous economist during the Great Depression who made a fortune betting the stock market would tank. He ended up losing it all when he turned bull a few years too early.
  5. O

    I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE TOPPED

    Is the market not going to celebrate "better than expected" results anymore? IBM posted a solid profit and outlook beat after market close and got hammered AH for a decline in sales. I thought BT was crazy calling a market top before Goldman reported earnings, but it does look like some...
  6. O

    I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

    If the market does turn down significantly, I wouldn't expect it to happen until after the 3Q GDP numbers come out. Everyone knows it's going to be green. If it beats 3%, that's going to be another major dose of fuel for the bubble. If it's under 2%, things might get ugly.
  7. O

    San Marino

    I've always thought of San Marino as Irvine's counterpart in LA County. San Marino is old money Taiwanese. Well-connected mainland families who moved to Taiwan with the KMT. A lot of doctors and other highly skilled professionals. Parents who graduated from Taipei University(the Harvard of...
  8. O

    Dining Deals

  9. O

    Vegas hotel deals link

    <a href="http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/travel-discussion/704925/?start=2440">http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/travel-discussion/704925/?start=2440</a> I don't go to Vegas often, but through my research for an upcoming trip this fall, this link has been the best source I've found for Vegas...
  10. O

    Economic Commentary

    Gold broke $1050, Latvia looks to be on the verge of collapse, dollar looking oh-so-shaky, and what could potentially be the 4th largest bankruptcy in US history is bearing down on us. It feels like the economic waters have sure kicked it up a notch after the relative lull of the summer months.
  11. O

    Waiting to catch a wave? Surge of REO listings is unlikely.

    Every single person I know who's looking to buy right now sounds miserable. And if someone does end up being able to close on a purchase, they immediately start second guessing themselves because they had to bid a lot more than they wanted to. It's an absolutely horrid environment for buyers...
  12. O

    The demise of the dollar

    The Chinese could tank the dollar whenever they want. No need for secret meetings or what not. And don't all these countries who want to create a new reserve currency have to let their currencies float first? Not sure why the article has a vaguely anti-American tone when a cheap dollar is...
  13. O

    Economic Commentary

    More important than the monthly job loss number is the fact that the Labor Department announced they're going to revise their unemployment numbers up 800k for the 12 months ended 3/09. Isn't that a big red flag that the economy is in much worse shape than people are hoping? What does this say...
  14. O

    SNL Obama Parody.

    That guy sounds nothing like Obama. I don't even see how that's a caricature of Obama.
  15. O

    New Jersey

    Winter in the Northeast has its own charm. And some of us get pretty bored with the thing we call Winter here in SoCal. Personally, my dislike of NE weather was always centered around Spring and Summer. For a certain period in Spring, the Northeast becomes a huge mass of half-melted salty...
  16. O

    Places to go with Chinese language students

    I would suggest going to a bubble tea shop. Some of them have shelves of manga translated into Chinese sitting around that you can browse. A lot of Taiwanese youngsters hang out at those places as well so sometimes it feels like you're in Taipei with everyone around you speaking Mandarin. Not...
  17. O

    Irvine Vs Lake Forest

    Speaking of Irvine and Lake Forest: <a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2009/09/western-digital-irvine.html">Western Digital ditches Lake Forest for Irvine!</a>
  18. O

    I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

    Wow, WTF happened to CIT today? Someone floated a rumor about a possible merger with IndyMac(IndyMac?!? seriously???), stock shot up huge. Then after hours WSJ reports they're preparing a deal to wipe out equity and give the company to bond holders. Being a tinfoil-hat-wearing paranoid bear...
  19. O

    In/Deflation Debate Summed Up

    <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japanese-prices-set-record-decline-in-august-2009-09-28">Japanese prices set record decline</a> The weirdest thing about my trip to Japan last year was that all the prices were around where they were the first time I visited Japan 15 years ago. I'm...
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