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  1. M

    NAR's Lawrence Yun Predicts 2.9% Increase in 2009 while Nouriel Roubini says 20% Decrease

    Following along with the tradition of sending notes to realtors whose listings are featured on the blog, I will send Mr Yun a copy of the The Great Housing Bubble. Perhaps I will also make an offer to bet my prediction is closer than his.
  2. M

    How about additional reviews at Amazon?

    I was suprised to find that I am the only one who has reviewed IrvineRenter's book on Amazon. Anybody else up for it? It doesn't need to be nearly as long as my review...
  3. M

    Headlines...

    Cool interview on KPCC. Just a sample of the good advice and discussion. So, has traffic on the site gone way up the last few days?
  4. M

    50% Loss in Real Estate (or more)

    It's not just the bad neighborhoods. http://www.redfin.com/CA/WOODLAND-HILLS/22055-AVENUE-SAN-LUIS-91364/home/4191526 52% off, and it hasn't yet sold. Woodland Hills. South of the Boulevard. and http://www.redfin.com/CA/Calabasas/24410-Mulholland-Hwy-91302/home/12096164...
  5. M

    Home price is still spiraling downward. Why people are buying?

    They aren't buying much, especially at the high end. Here's my shocking statistic from Malibu. August (last month with data available, cyberhomes), 3 sales. A more typical August is 40. Most years there are 250-320 home sales. This year, maybe 80, and most of that was in the first half...
  6. M

    Jamie Dimon: "If you are not fearful, you're crazy"

    If jumbo loans go to a 1/3 down requirement, there won't be nearly as many jumbos for sale. They will either hold off the market, get foreclosed, rent out, or move the price to conforming * 125% (i.e., 20% down at the conforming limit, $812,500 in LA in 2009).
  7. M

    If you are waiting What are you waiting for?

    I am waiting for my models to tell me that buying a home would mean something other than losing a quarter million dollars in the first two years on a $1 million house. Right now, I show a good chance of doing exactly that. You can pay the entire cost of raising a child for $250k. Think of...
  8. M

    Why wait for prices to drop?

    Calabasas is Las Virgenes, Malibu is Santa Monica Malibu School District.
  9. M

    Why wait for prices to drop?

    Excellent schools, both Malibu and Calabasas. Far better than LAUSD, that's why homes 1/4 mile away from LAUSD are worth more than twice as much.
  10. M

    Why wait for prices to drop?

    I am watching prices continue to drop 2% a month in Malibu, Calabasas, Agoura. You would have to have quite a savings rate to save $20k/month. At current interest rates, that means the matching house payment is dropping $125 for every month you wait. The 20% downpayment is dropping by $4,000...
  11. M

    How long should it take to have a downpayment?

    If you go from living alone to being married with no kids, it gets much easier to save. Few expenses are exactly double of living alone, and many are considerably less, especially rental housing. I am assuming both people are reasonably responsible and frugal. In my experience, four...
  12. M

    2003 Prices or Rollbacks

    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Hidden-Hills/23763-Oakfield-Rd-91302/home/3297297 23763 Oakfield Rd Hidden Hills, CA 91302 Price: $1,699,500 Beds: 5 Baths: 4 Sq. Ft.: 4,050 $/Sq. Ft.: $420 Lot Size: 1.71 Acres Property Type: Single Family Residence Style: Spanish...
  13. M

    Barely surviving on credit cards...

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/ Americans spend an average of 6.3% of their disposable income on consumer debt service. The median household income is about $50,000. People who don't have debt have about $3150 of spare money to spend each year.
  14. M

    Way outside of Orange County

    $59,900 2 br 2 ba sqft Single-Family Home 43621 Pecos Court, Lancaster CA Sales History Historical home sale price (1): $193,500 Prior sale date: Dec 24, 2007 Change since this sale (1): -69% Historical home sale price (2): $250,000 Prior sale date: Jul 6...
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