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bix - Yes, with the Irvine new home Mello Roos and HOA, I agree you do have to be more conservative. So for $90k income, you probably can afford a brand-new home at $450k with 20% down.

BTW - I realize the tricky part is to come up with 20% down. AND it does imply that you have to stretch to live in a "POS overpriced box" at 90k income. For many people in this blog, I understand this isn't acceptable :)-. That's why I dont disagree that waiting for the next...

fk123 - Below is just my opinion not necessary want to start another argument :)- In general I am conservative with money, so I agree with crucialtaunt that we do need to make sure there're money left over for at least 6-months rainy day, 401k and 529 (as much as possible), medical, etc...

IrvineRenter, in your opinion, why is San Diego ahead in price adjustment and foreclosure? How much ahead are they compare to OC?

IIIrvine, I think there has been both increased traffic and sales in Voc and PS recently. Last Oct/Nov/Dec, both traffic and sales were pretty much dead. Many cancelation, inventory pretty much stayed constant for 2-3 months and most builders stopped building. Now after 10-15% price cut, they...

IrvineRenter, thanks for the tips. I still think anecdotal experience is somewhat important. For ex: if you are basing only on statistical, even in 2001 or 2002 you would not even consider buying, and would have missed the train and have to wait for a long time until the next bottom. Market...

bigmoney - Yes I think I would have to "see it with my own eyes" this spring/summer - at least something similar to what happenned last winter when buyers balked and inventory spiking. FYI - we were planning on buying last winter but seeing how the market just frozen we decided to wait it out...

IrvineRenter - As always, thanks for the information. SCHB - I still find it hard to believe it is going to drop 20% let alone 30-40% or more! But I like reading IrvineRenter's blog as he often provide good insight. To me personally, his argument represents the absolute worst-case...

IrvineRenter, are you familiar with VoC or the Great Park projects? It seems that Lennar paid the land at some significant cost? So do they really have the high margin as well over there?

Orchad Hills does look very promising. My personal concern is probably the school district, seems like it'll be half Irvine half Tustin? Also like SCBH mentioned, it may get pushed, and I dont see why the plan of 4,400 homes wont change either. According to IrvineRenter and crucialtaunt...

SCHB - yes, I have no question that it is human nature. As I mentioned before, I visited this blog is to find info regarding new home in Irvine. I didn't expect to see discussion about how housing is about to crash and how bad timing it is to purchase now. So I might have joined the wrong blog...

Muzie, Yes I agree local market and national market are different. But housing bubble seems to be a national phenomena, in fact it is probably a global issue. Europe, Australia, and many parts of Asia have seen housing price doubles or triples just in the last few years, and are facing...

crucialtaunt - Thanks. I guess we really can't trust no one these days. Sigh...

IrvineRenter - This last blog from you is what I've been trying to say as well, only you articulate it much better. Housing is such a basic need for everyone and a very personal one too so every decision for buying a home should be personal. The only consolation I have if I am wrong is that I...

Thanks for the information.

IrvineRenter - it seems that many people assume that the builders will keep on building because they have SO MUCH profit margin. But if I shop around in Irvine now, I see many builders slow down construction or even stop completely until the lots are sold. While it is true that the...

wantToLiveInIrvine - No. I think it covers the fundamental why soft-landing scenario is likely and why the future of housing is healthy. Did you spend the time to read it? I am sure I can find more recent articles about why housing will never crash or why housing bubble is just a myth but...

IIIrvine, I am talking about a new home purchase. Most builders are willing to adjust the price before close of escrow now, some in writing although most still arent. It takes them apprx 6 months to build the new home thus the longer escrow. For us personally unless there are obvious...

I stopped by. Very nice homes. Loved the Plan 4. I think only a couple units are sold but didn't ask for details. <strong>Phase 2 (Feb 10, 2007)</strong> Homesite 35 - Plan 1A - $757,600 Homesite 37 - Plan 1C - $758,000 Homesite 34 - Plan 2A - $808,000 Homesite 38 - Plan 3BR -...

graphix, Doesn't Fed rate decide short-term (ARM) rate? Some experts actually predict Fed might lower the rate so we'll just have to see. I am just pointing out that if ARM rate is lower then it helps affordability and demand. Also help people who need to refinance for the next...