Search results

My top 10 reason why bottom isn't here <strong>1) Consumer price index is already deflating</strong> The CPI is already in deflation mode, having fallen 0.4% on a year-over-year basis, the first such negative trend since 1955. It is not just the actual deflation rate, but the extent...

<strong>1) Consumer price index is already deflating</strong> The CPI is already in deflation mode, having fallen 0.4% on a year-over-year basis, the first such negative trend since 1955. It is not just the actual deflation rate, but the extent of the deceleration, since this time last...

I believe we have one more leg down.

The mark to market accounting change saved the banks in Q1, wonder what bull#$%& the government will/can pull to save them in Q2. Credit market didn't improve last month whatsoever.

<strong>A long way from declaring the end of the recession</strong> Once again, we see data analysis today (mostly on bubble-vision and the commentary we get second-hand from other parts of the Street) that barely scratches the surface and is disingenuous at best (though we do recognize...

My vote - Inflation.

<strong>GDP estimates going down</strong> Retail sales came in markedly weaker than expected in March, down 1.1% M/M versus estimates for a modest gain. These figures have prompted us to lower our 1Q GDP forecast from -5.6% Q/Q annualized to -5.9% on weaker consumption growth (now 0.6%...

Credit Easing? <fieldset class="gc-fieldset"> <legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/308_DKdDGOPy9Cw4zQgu86uN.jpg"><img...

<strong>More yellow weeds than green shoots in today?s data-flow</strong> At some point in the not-too-distant future, we believe the markets will begin to second-guess the widespread view that the economy is heading into sustained recovery mode. It may take more than what we saw today...

With the amount of paper currency already out there and Fed/Treasury still printing like crazy, I have no reason to believe the fed will be able to control inflation once the economy start recovering. A lot people saying we dont have to worry about inflation until years later, it's almost like...

<strong>Bankruptcy filings surge</strong> Take a look at page B5C of today?s Wall Street Journal, ?Bankruptcies Rise Sharply?. The number of businesses seeking bankruptcy protection hit its highest level in more than two years in March. There were about 7,800 commercial bankruptcy...

I've just finished an analysis for the upper management, just 2009 YTD CMBS downgrades totaled $80bn, RMBS $60bn......

I've been using FAS, FAZ for swing trades, ultra or 3x ETFs are only good for very short term trades with tight stops.

<strong>Recessions don?t end until the first derivative improves</strong> As you know, we more or less share this view. It is just reassuring to see someone with heft like Feldstein agree with it as the markets move increasingly against this bearish interpretation of the economic backdrop...

<strong>Cumulative job loss hits over 5 million</strong> The best that can be said about today?s nonfarm payroll report was that the 663k decline did not exceed market expectations, which centered around such a headline figure (though the Household Survey showed a huge 861,000 loss)...

<strong>So what has bottomed exactly?</strong> Not employment. Not organic real personal income. Not industrial production. Not shipments or order backlogs. Not home prices. Maybe housing starts ? but February was the third lowest number on record (583k) so can we really say for sure...

<strong>Continuing claims have doubled in the past year</strong> Over the past four weeks, continuing claims have surged by a record 654k ? and have doubled in the past year ? to a record 5.728 million. That is incredible. At the end of February, the four-week increase was 498k. So if we...

To me, the job/housing market has to stablize before I decide to switch from fixed income to equity.