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<strong>Economic expansion seen as fragile</strong> The minutes of the April 29 FOMC meeting revealed the Committee was concerned about the fragility of the economic outlook and thus the door is ajar for more quantitative easing (QE), though a wait-and-see mode in the near term is most...

<strong>Forecast Addendum: Meltdown in the auto sector</strong> The cornerstone of our forecast update released last February was a relatively swift inventory correction that largely played out in the first half of the year, setting the stage for a second quarter rebound in GDP growth...

<strong>Consumer sentiment up on hope of a better future</strong> Consumer sentiment rose to 67.9 in the preliminary May reading. This was modestly above the consensus estimate of 67.0 and slightly below our expectation of 68.8. The improvement was driven by the expectations component...

And one should time the market, learn TA and know with the highest probability which way the market might go in the next 2-3 months, the wall street, mutual fund managers and so called financial planners are all preaching buy and hold, JUST DOESN'T WORK. Once an asset class forms a bubble and...

<strong>Food prices are actually falling</strong> We were criticized for failing to mention a Financial Times article yesterday, which pointed out the surge in coffee and sugar prices (see ?Coffee and Sugar Prices Stirred by Shortages?). Prices for these commodities are on the rise because...

Agree with IR, in a high rate environment you don't want to investing in long duration, if you try to profit off the hyperinflation play, buy gold or TIPS.

<strong>6) Tighter lending standards across the board</strong> This, the Fed released its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey and we learned that 40% of banks reported tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans. Banks largely blamed the economy for the tighter credit, with...

Since Mr. Rosenberg is leaving Merrill, I'm posting his entire farewell piece Dave's Top Ten The 10 major macro themes of the past week 1) Do we see the recession ending by mid-year? Not so fast. 2) Have markets been too hasty pricing out deflation risks? 3) Interpreting the ISM...

<strong>April payrolls expected to tumble</strong> This Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report nonfarm payrolls for the month of April. The Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch projection is that, with the ongoing declines in construction and manufacturing jobs and a sharp...

<strong>Signs of stabilization?</strong> The most upbeat part of Bernanke?s message was that there are ?some tentative signs that final demand, especially demand by households, may be stabilizing.? Working against this stabilization are a weak labor market, which he suggests will...

I have to agree with IR on this one. After the stress test result out next week, we probably will have a 10-15% pull back in May before the PPT try to rally the market up again. Still believe we will see S&P hit 550-600 by Q4.

<strong> Upside surprise to consumer spending</strong> If there was an upside surprise in the GDP data, it was consumer spending, which managed to post a 2.2% annualized advance. Many pundits are pointing to this as a sign of stabilization in the most critical segment of domestic demand...

<strong>Universities fall on hard times</strong> Some colleges across the country are so financially-strapped that some are selling off school radio stations, paintings and dipping into their endowments to stay afloat, causing anger among many donors. Have a look at the front page of...

Chrysler will go down by the end of this month, GM has a huge June maturity (over $1bn) and it will default and go into Ch 11. We wrap the 401k plan for all 3 (GM, Chrysler and Ford), I'd recommend you to be careful with Ford, take your profit or buy puts.

<strong>Woes in commercial real estate to intensify</strong> For a look at how the problems in commercial real estate are likely to intensify, look no further than page C1 of today?s WSJ, ?In Atlanta, Irrational Building Exuberance?. Four upscale office buildings are scheduled for...