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<p>red: <em>"I am just not as confident as some people in this blog that housing price in Irvine will go down much more than 10-15% than current pricing."</em></p> <p>Actually none of us are soothsayers, or even claim to have all the answers. In fact, we are merely taking a guess that the...

<p>rickhunter: <em>What is the point of your example of a couple buying the $700K home?</em></p> <p>Several "points":</p> <p>#1 is Affordability.</p> <p>#2 close behind is having the means (cash cushion) to weather any downturns:</p> <p>i.e. if you or your spouse had a job loss and...

WantToLiveInIrvine: Welcome. You have come with the right mindset. There is a time and a place to buy. Irvine is definitely one of the best places around for young families, no doubt about that. However, this is definitely not the time. Wait it out and the world will be yours... Good luck...

<p>hardwareguy: <em>"builders are very flexible in their pricing when times are bad"</em></p> <p>Absolutely the truth! They are like any other profit making business in our capitalist society. As long as they are cash flow positive (i.e. have a profit margin) on every deal they make, they...

<p>Irvine Renter:</p> <p>The answer depends on what you mean by "common sense". If you go by the standard dictionary definition found on <a href="http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/common%20sense">Dictionary.com</a>, you could say that yes, people should have enough "native intelligence"...

<p>CK- I stand corrected on the rent. My assumption was $3,000, whereas, you are correct, the reality is the average rental for 3BR/2BA TH/SFR in Irvine is around $2,300 - $2,500. So my calculation was erring a bit on the side of caution... It makes the comparison even more heavily weighted...

<p>Here's the <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/homepage/article_1556536.php">link</a> to the most recent OC Register article on the slump in housing-related industries. Also, here is an incisive comment on this article by <a...

Guys (gals) don't get me wrong - I like high performance cars, hybrid technology and all - as much as the next guy, and burn enough of my hard earned cash to stay warm in the comfortable leather-covered cocoon of my luxury steel trap, but I still look at TCO (total cost of ownership) and...

<p>socalhousingbubble: <em>"I guess we all realize that cars are (almost always) destined to only DEpreciate. Their value gets consumed through use, which isn't supposed to be the case with real estate. The house may require maintenaince and refurb, but the underlying land doesn't get "used...

<p>oc_fliptrack: <em>"My knees get weak around well-designed high-performance cars."</em></p> <p>Sounds like the endorphins talking...</p> <p> </p>

<p>Fraychielle:</p> <p>I think we mean well. Personally, I am trying to reason with people who are going headlong into the most expensive venture of their lives without giving adequate consideration to "rational thought". This is not a soapbox for me. This is a "bully pulpit" in the truest...

<p>CK: Wait and watch is a good approach in this market. I think most of us who congregate here in this forum are longer term bulls on the housing market but the disconnect between prices and reality is what irks us the most and has turned us into cheerleaders for a correction in the short to...

<p>Some general thoughts: I think that the populace at large has been brainwashed that "homeownership" is what everyone should aspire to *at all times* - by the constant barrage of NAR exposure (ads/newsmedia footprint/coverage), and supported largely hand-in-glove by the government with free...

<p>CK: "<em>I have definitely come to the decision that 2007 will NOT be the year we jump into the housing market as 1st time home buyers."</em></p> <p>Good call. You will not regret this decision.</p> <p>Alright, who's next?</p>

<p>GrewUpInIrvine: "<em>Side note: I am hoping for an rate increase from the fed."</em></p> <p>Attaboy! Man after my own heart! I can't wait for banks to charge more interest on loans so that they can pay me even higher cash interest on savings.</p> <p>Any other trolls out there?</p>

Check out this <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pcu9bZ7fu2EACO88HAFzJdw">spreadsheet</a> of information on resale median prices by ZIP code in orange County from December 2006 via DataQuick. This is normally published each month in the LA Times...

Great article on resale vs. new from bankrate.com... <a href="http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/real-estate/reguide/old-or-new1.asp">Click here.</a>

<p>irvinerenter: calculatedrisk has this interesting set of "predictions" for housing in 2007 that I somewhat agree with... Check out <a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/12/housing-in-2007.html">this link</a>.</p>

<p><em>IrvineRenter: "However, even with a 15% discount, I don't see how the math works."</em></p> <p>Thanks for reading my mind. This is what I had in mind to say but wanted to give bix the benefit of the doubt to see what rationale he used to make this work for him. Unless of course, he's...

<p><em>Fraychielle "10.5% annual investment return is awfully generous. I wouldn't put money intended for a down payment in stocks. How about 5.05% risk free?"</em></p> <p>I discounted the historical S&P return (100% stocks) by several points to arrive at 10.5% to allow for a more...