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this is why I love this discussion -- both eyephone and CV are correct Buffet -- got breaks at every step -- used his dads political connections and then had the ultimate jackpot of working with Charlie munger, the genius behind the operation.  he was also fortunate to build his business when...

Everything was bleak in the fourth quarter . Let?s see what the same ppl say in May on their earnings calls ...

First of all I don?t understand his comment - is he calling ?second generation ?  Asian Americans foreigners ?  Must be a trump supporter :)  Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

I myself had this misconception that FCBs were biggest proportion of high end buyers till I talked to actual people doing the buying It is diverse mix - doctors from hoag, small business owners that CV mentioned , tech people , mgmt consultants , finance types

Those forecasts are stale is what 6 months means And data is released monthly so what I said in March was referring to data as of end of Feb Now since you are so concerned about ?civility ? ? if you had a genuine interest in understanding all this you could simply have asked me a question . I...

You know it is exhausting dealing w people who don?t understand basic math How can a 6 month old forecast be ?tracking ? anything ?  Tracking means adjusting forecasts based on current level of activity - which dipped meaningfully in Jan and early Feb before rebounding in March . And that...

Do you know that it was 2.5 percent for the last six months ??  Even when data was showing a near recession in late Jan ?  This is why if you actually pay attention  ? the stock market is the best economic forecaster out there Otherwise even a stopped clock is right twice a day ... But the...

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent .  And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their...

NO ECONOMIC RECESSION But there will be market consolidation around where we are - probably a dip in the summer ? which will get bought So if ppl waiting for a actual recession to buy a house , you may be waiting for a long long time . Buying a house may still not make financial sense for...

ok here is a prediction - and use your own judgment but this is what data shows to me We had a good March are now back to probably 2 percent gdp growth for q1 from what was going to be less than half percent in feb Stock market right now is forecasting 10 percent earnings growth for 2020 ...

Yeah that?s what I have been saying But opening the recents posts link to read TI is like stepping over a purple dumpster fire . You want to look away and keep scrolling but it gets exhausting . Wish there was a ?recent posts ? link that excluded all this stuff

What's the over/under on when he starts attacking Biden's dead wife and kids?

There is a lot of self loathing when it comes to Irvine - proximity bias I was the one who mentioned this forum is littered w posts like ?for 3-4-5 million I would rather live in Newport / cdm near the ocean etc ? whenever mention of expensive new home sales in irvine is made But I have...

Re FCBs ? also don?t forget for many of them it is a way to get exposure to USD as a currency Just witness the bloodbath going on in EM right now esp turkey and Argentina . China is a lot different yes, but people don?t trust a highly controlled currency regime. Things can seem fine for a long...

Most logical explanation i have seen so far

Lot of good info in this post . All these ?gurus ? have one thing in common ? gift of gab. Their fraud worked well till the 90s mostly . Now blogs and social media have leveled the playing field Financial Twitter has some very good posters that give you insights you otherwise never would...

Drive through lake forest and drive through irvine How does this make logical sense ? I am genuinely curious . Where exactly is this poverty located .

Minimum wage has little bearing on if a job gets automated. Companies are replacing labor w machines whenever they can and especially when they think customers will like the experience . This is the logic WSJ has drilled into generations of readers with their op-eds. The actual evidence is not...

Interesting .. when you say tier 2 - do you mean in terms of $$  . Or is it by social strata . Or is it by asset diversification? Because there were certainly a few more expensive homes being sold in Vancouver than Irvine .

As we suspected - a combination of lower rates plus builders getting more aggressive... U.S. New-Home Sales Rose in March All U.S. regions but the Northeast saw new-home sales gains last month https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-new-home-sales-rose-in-march-11556028205