New communities in Portola Springs

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Finally checked out some model homes over the weekend, Lily in the Great Park by Taymo, Azul by CalPac and Cielo by Shea.

We didn't go into Azul because it looked like the standard box on box design (which Lily was) but we really liked the Cielo Shea designs. The central exposed stairs was nice in the Plan 1 and the 2-story ceilings for the family room in all plans was refreshing to see.

The small master closets were not very big (except for plan 3) and although the Plan 2 had 2 master closets, they were tiny.

I'm surprised none of those plans had a master wet room where the shower and tub were combined in a sauna type area.

Can't believe these are $2-$3m homes. 15 years and new houses more than doubled.

Time heals all wounds.... which is why you shoild buy whan you can. :)
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Finally checked out some model homes over the weekend, Lily in the Great Park by Taymo, Azul by CalPac and Cielo by Shea.

We didn't go into Azul because it looked like the standard box on box design (which Lily was) but we really liked the Cielo Shea designs. The central exposed stairs was nice in the Plan 1 and the 2-story ceilings for the family room in all plans was refreshing to see.

The small master closets were not very big (except for plan 3) and although the Plan 2 had 2 master closets, they were tiny.

I'm surprised none of those plans had a master wet room where the shower and tub were combined in a sauna type area.

Can't believe these are $2-$3m homes. 15 years and new houses more than doubled.

Time heals all wounds.... which is why you shoild buy whan you can. :)
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Fifteen years ago was the cyclical bottom after the GFC. So yes, those that waited and bought after the crash did extremely well. Those that "bought when they could" from 2005-07 with easy financing suffered a blood bath, and many of those short sales were featured on the IHB.

And yet I saw on another thread some recent new home buyers are disgruntled about the $1 million price cuts on their models. I suppose time will heal their wounds as well, but it doesn't change the fact that they lost $1 million on their new homes, and they are stuck until prices recover.
 
Liar Loan said:
Fifteen years ago was the cyclical bottom after the GFC. So yes, those that waited and bought after the crash did extremely well. Those that "bought when they could" from 2005-07 with easy financing suffered a blood bath, and many of those short sales were featured on the IHB.
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Hindsight... but back in 2010... most kept saying it would still keep dropping. That was only a few years after the peak and there were many who were still in doubt.

There were also many who bought during peak, kicked the can, or held... and made out like a bandit, esp if they used O-ARMs and the interest rates dropped so they were making positive minimum payments. The short sales/foreclosures on the IHB was not a majority % of people who bought at peak and that's also why Larry ran out of material sooner than even he expected.

Show me the numbers of this blood bath. I did some data analysis back in 2012 on TI that got cross-posted to IHB and the foreclosure tsunami that was supposed to make prices drop further never happened. The only "bloodbath" was the the dashed expectations of a lot of speculators... which includes myself. Yes... I thought prices would drop more back in 2008... but by 2010... I already knew it wasn't going the way that people thought and was in the minority. 2013... you still thought people were catching knives... 2018 you still kept saying it wasn't a good time to buy. 2020 Covid you finally feel your black swan was here to land... but what happened then? In fact, you even bought without telling anyone it was "the time to buy".

I can admit when I'm wrong but you...

1754956739606.png
 
Liar Loan said:
Fifteen years ago was the cyclical bottom after the GFC. So yes, those that waited and bought after the crash did extremely well. Those that "bought when they could" from 2005-07 with easy financing suffered a blood bath, and many of those short sales were featured on the IHB.

And yet I saw on another thread some recent new home buyers are disgruntled about the $1 million price cuts on their models. I suppose time will heal their wounds as well, but it doesn't change the fact that they lost $1 million on their new homes, and they are stuck until prices recover.
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I hope we get a depression just to prove you right. Either that or gen z/a will revolt and forcibly take homes for themselves.
 
Mawesome Sauce said:
Like I said… you think gen z and alpha are going to accept the terrible state of opportunities for them just so home owners can stay rich at their expense? They will have a revolution. Better to have peaceful wealth transfer than to have violent wealth confiscation like all those countries you cited.
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they stay on phone and avoid real hunman contact at all costs. i sure hope they can unite and rise ... in any capacity
 
Mawesome Sauce said:
Like I said… you think gen z and alpha are going to accept the terrible state of opportunities for them just so home owners can stay rich at their expense? They will have a revolution. Better to have peaceful wealth transfer than to have violent wealth confiscation like all those countries you cited.
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probably what will happen is people will finally realize it's OK to tax land more and/or rent seeking on land value increases, and capital will flow out from RE speculation and into more productive areas of the economy.

That doesn't mean prices will drop but it certainly could slow the appreciation level (hopefully).
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
probably what will happen is people will finally realize it's OK to tax land more and/or rent seeking on land value increases, and capital will flow out from RE speculation and into more productive areas of the economy.

That doesn't mean prices will drop but it certainly could slow the appreciation level (hopefully).
Click to expand...

The issue is domestic money has to compete with foreign money.

530606134_797842682809201_8462911136100079103_n.jpg
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Hindsight... but back in 2010... most kept saying it would still keep dropping. That was only a few years after the peak and there were many who were still in doubt.

There were also many who bought during peak, kicked the can, or held... and made out like a bandit, esp if they used O-ARMs and the interest rates dropped so they were making positive minimum payments. The short sales/foreclosures on the IHB was not a majority % of people who bought at peak and that's also why Larry ran out of material sooner than even he expected.

Show me the numbers of this blood bath. I did some data analysis back in 2012 on TI that got cross-posted to IHB and the foreclosure tsunami that was supposed to make prices drop further never happened. The only "bloodbath" was the the dashed expectations of a lot of speculators... which includes myself. Yes... I thought prices would drop more back in 2008... but by 2010... I already knew it wasn't going the way that people thought and was in the minority. 2013... you still thought people were catching knives... 2018 you still kept saying it wasn't a good time to buy. 2020 Covid you finally feel your black swan was here to land... but what happened then? In fact, you even bought without telling anyone it was "the time to buy".

I can admit when I'm wrong but you...
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Clearly I hit a nerve while dismantling the "buy when you can" advice.

The bad advice that you followed on IHB had nothing to do with me. I wasn't even a participant there. It's actually nobody's fault but your own.

After all these years just take responsibility and stop blaming a group of anonymous posters for your poor real estate decisions.
 
Did I say I was blaming anyone?

Clearly I touched a nerve because you were wrong so many times. So much you had to reply to me.

Stop projecting your poor choices.

Which was the best time to buy?

2005
2010
2013
2018
2020
2022
 
test said:
The issue is domestic money has to compete with foreign mView attachment 10535
Click to expand...

The reason it has to is because Real Estate is extremely tax advantaged compared to most other investments. I can't 1031 my Apple stock appreciations into Anthropic shares. I can't get my tax rate fixed to 'now' so future tax increases on capital gains aren't applied, I can't get a subsidized loan that I can write off to buy equities.

If you remove some of these tax advantages to real estate, *land speculation* will go away. You'll still have people making money in real estate who provide value (like actually improving a house or developing properties) but the 'buy and hold' strategy will be less appealing to other forms of investments.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Which was the best time to buy?

2005
2010
2013
2018
2020
2022
Click to expand...
The best time to buy was 2010 after the GFC blood bath, and the second best was 2020 after the Irvine housing downturn. I just so happen to have purchased my last two residences in those years and the gains have been unbelievable.

The fact that builders are discounting Irvine by $500k-1.5M means the end of this cycle will probably be another excellent time to buy.
 
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