Housing Analysis

If you say so... We all know your history.
Show me the post that says otherwise... I found all your lies... where is mine? In fact, there is a thread here that says about when I last bought in Irvine.

I didn't blame the Fed or other forces during the last crash. My entire focus has been on not fighting the Fed. That is why I started encouraging people to buy homes and stocks like crazy in 2009 before most of our bear blog compadres believed the bottom was in.
I don't recall you doing that here. Your March 2012 posts kept saying that prices will keep going down, let me remind you again:

Irvine median home price hits 9-year lowhttp://ochousingnews.com/news/irvine-median-home-price-hits-9-year-low

You can bash the median all you want, but it's not possible for a shifting sales mix in a city the size of Irvine to be solely responsible for a $320,000 price decline since the peak. Every village except University Park has a lower PpSF than one year ago, so the price decline continues and many of the sales that IHO posted have lost value in a short amount of time. They are like the '08 buyers in the non-Irvine/non-coastal areas of OC that purchased too early. They were the early knife catchers. Now it's Irvine's and the beach cities' turn to feel the pain. Those that purchased in these higher end areas from 2008-2011 are the Real Knife Catchers of OC.

So to answer IHO's question from another thread...

Yes, Irvine prices got "destroyed" and will continue to get "destroyed" for some time.

Right there "those that purchased in these higher end ares from 2008-2011 are the Real Knife Catchers of OC"... last I checked, 2009 is between 2008 and 2011.

And I said, good thing USC, Zubs and myself didn't listen to your 2012 call of priced continuing to get "destroyed" for some time.

No Covid to blame on that bad call.

Hard to argue with yourself isn't it?

Time for you to disappear for a few days hoping that no one will remember these posts.
 
Show me the post that says otherwise... I found all your lies... where is mine? In fact, there is a thread here that says about when I last bought in Irvine.


I don't recall you doing that here. Your March 2012 posts kept saying that prices will keep going down, let me remind you again:



Right there "those that purchased in these higher end ares from 2008-2011 are the Real Knife Catchers of OC"... last I checked, 2009 is between 2008 and 2011.

And I said, good thing USC, Zubs and myself didn't listen to your 2012 call of priced continuing to get "destroyed" for some time.

No Covid to blame on that bad call.

Hard to argue with yourself isn't it?

Time for you to disappear for a few days hoping that no one will remember these posts.
Irvine was mid-crash from 2008-2011 and those buyers were the real knife catchers of OC, precisely because they bought into a crashing market. The point of that thread was that you denied that Irvine prices ever got "destroyed" from 2008-2011, just like you continue to deny it to this day with the 15% lie.

USC didn't buy in Irvine either because he knew what a disaster it was. You are the first to put Tustin down in other threads, but when it's convenient you conflate Irvine/Tustin as one city. LOL...

When/where did Zubs buy? He probably wasn't even aware of my views in 2012.

And by your own admission, you took a six-figure bloodbath on your home purchase. That's squarely on you though. Not Larry, not me.

Irvine was plagued by foreclosures, short sales, and strategic default in 2012 so prices did continue to get "destroyed" in a very literal sense. In the thread you quote, the median price is denied by you as a valid statistic, PPSF is denied by you as valid, the only statistic you deem valid is personal observation (which fed into your 15% lie) and if you were looking at the distress in Irvine it did indeed continue to get "destroyed" for some time.
 
Irvine was mid-crash from 2008-2011 and those buyers were the real knife catchers of OC, precisely because they bought into a crashing market. The point of that thread was that you denied that Irvine prices ever got "destroyed" from 2008-2011, just like you continue to deny it to this day with the 15% lie.
Are you blind? How many times do I have to tell you that the 15% were the homes I was shopping. You keep trying to mix the numbers to make you look better but it's not working no matter how many times you tell this lie.

The point of me reposting your post was to show you that the people who bought in 2008-2011 were not Knife Catchers... because from 2013 forward, prices skyrocketed so there was no knife there.

USC didn't buy in Irvine either because he knew what a disaster it was. You are the first to put Tustin down in other threads, but when it's convenient you conflate Irvine/Tustin as one city. LOL...
Putting words in his mouth. Tustin Ranch is basically like Irvine but a little more discounted... so same factors apply. Santa Ana is just as close to Irvine as Tustin Ranch is... why the difference there? If you can't recognize the similarities/differences... that may be your problem.

When/where did Zubs buy? He probably wasn't even aware of my views in 2012.
Does it matter? You thought all OC prices were going to continue to nosedive in 2012... with your main focus on Irvine... which did not happen in 2013.

And by your own admission, you took a six-figure bloodbath on your home purchase. That's squarely on you though. Not Larry, not me.
Quote that post right now. I have never said I took a 6-figure loss. This lie is squarely on you. In fact, I believe the home I sold was only 5% less then for what I bought it for... not even close to 6-figures. And that got erased by the gigantic equity I've made since then on 2 other properties.

Irvine was plagued by foreclosures, short sales, and strategic default in 2012 so prices did continue to get "destroyed" in a very literal sense. In the thread you quote, the median price is denied by you as a valid statistic, PPSF is denied by you as valid, the only statistic you deem valid is personal observation (which fed into your 15% lie) and if you were looking at the distress in Irvine it did indeed continue to get "destroyed" for some time.
Keep trying. Ignore the 2013 jump where prices exceeded the previous high. Show me the graph from 2012 on where Irvine prices were getting destroyed... unless going up means destruction to you.

You're just digging the hole deeper... and it's hilarious.
 
I actually bought a short sale home in West Irvine in Dec 2011, by chance it was the lowest priced 4bd home after the Great Recession but it did need renovating. I bought my Tustin Ranch home in April 2016 and sold my West Irvine home to a client of mine in Sept 2016.
 
Inventory is key. The unemployment rate needs to get worse adding pressure for people to sell.
I've been saying it all this time, unemployment is the key metric to look at. That metric itself can flip the market into a down turn if things go downhill.

I feel like we all spend so much time trying to time the bottom or find the bottom. Why not spend the time to navigate a path to accumulate assets and grow your wealth rather than focus on something that is out of ones control? Rich people think 10+ years out, not couple months, one year, or even 5 years.
 
I do. Very simple, I just do opposites to what liarloan and morekaos say.
I bought a house back then, well documented here…paid the cheapest on a 25 home street on the water since 2002. it more than doubled in price rather quickly.🤷🏽‍♂️😆😆😆
 
How about just buy if and when you can? Also, for investment home, don't be afraid to look in another state. Don't worry about timing it perfectly. Worry about keeping your job.
 
What maturity?
I don’t think it matters. Anything 6 months to 3 years pays pretty well right now. That’s about the term for a tenant lease. The high yields in treasuries just took out SVB. I’m wondering if some regional banks may have this issue in the next few months. That may cause lending spreads to widen, so even if rates come down mortgage rates may stay elevated
 
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I believe this narrative was much more true for 2010-2020 than it will be for 2020-2030. The number of new homes for sale is the highest since 1979, excluding the mid-00's bubble. (See the chart below.) Given the population increases since the 1970's, we are at healthy levels of new home construction once again.

On the demand side, there was a demographic wave of millenials reaching prime home buying age, but that is going to flatten out in the next 1-2 years and stay flattened out for the rest of the decade, meanwhile Boomers are declining in numbers by an increasing amount each year.

There is going to be a triple whammy of supply hitting the market during the next 5-10 years:

-The most new homes under construction since 1973 (apartments and houses)
-Boomers selling due to ill health or death
-Lower household formation due to the lower marriage and birthrates of the past 14 years (i.e. less demand for apartments and starter homes)

The "experts" are starting to catch on that long term fundamentals are not good for home prices, although buying conditions will be great for first time home buyers.

Millennials are fueling a generational housing bubble - and it's set to pop in the next decade as demand drops, researchers say​

In a recent report from the Indiana University Center for Real Estate Studies and the Indiana Business Research Center, researchers said Millennials — who are between their mid-20s and early-40s, are in the prime-homebuying age — have pushed up home prices in recent years as demand outweighs supply.

But the situation will start to reverse over the next decade, as Baby Boomers begin age out of the housing market. Meanwhile, post-Millennial generations will be smaller as population growth slows.

That could lead to an excess of housing, potentially pushing down prices and sparking a crash in the real estate sector.

"Plainly put – a generational housing bubble is on the horizon. New housing built now to meet strong demand may sit vacant in a decade. Demand reversal will intensify by the mid-2030s, when the annual number of homes that seniors add back to the market is expected to be 40% higher than current levels," researchers said.

 
We have much lower inventory in our zip or any typical Bay Area zip yet look at this jaw dropping chart. Sure SF is f’ed but wow. Coming to Irvine soon and is already happening across OC.
 

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And if the Fed starts cutting rate some time next year and the mortgage rates start dropping, then we'll have more buyers with the same inventory. So it looks like we've probably have bottomed out.
I'm seeing lots of personal and LinkedIn mesages about acquaintances losing their jobs - had a former AWS partner actually cry telling me he just got canned. Unemployment in high paying professional jobs is growing rapidly (for all but the good salespeople :) ). Combine that with all the regional banks going belly up, just like the S&L crisis, snd you will not have anywhere near the number of qualified applicants nor the mortage products to support current Irvine pricing.
 
Many millennials can't find housing at the traditional house buying age.
It's interesting that some of these article just assumes they just disappeared and drop dead as Gen Z enter house buying age.

No, they will both compete in the entry housing market
People in their 40s are now competing for housing with other in their 20s. this trend wont' stop at Gen Z, driving the inventory even smaller.
 
Here is redfin's median price chart. It doesn't show such extremes as WOLFSTREET.COM
But certainly SF had a drop....but then popped up again in MAR.

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My realtor relative tells me there are still a lot of bidding wars going on.
There is a floor...and I'm still waiting to collect. Did I miss my chance?.. probably not.
 
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I would say there are several factors in play right now.

1. China opening up again.
2. Eleven states forbidding Chinese to buy properties, driving them to California.
3. Seasonally uptick until summer.

All of these fit into IP's narrative of raising prices on Cielo homes right now. According to sales, they're planning to raise $50k per phase, and they consider A and B separate phases. When I talked to sales, he mentioned Chinese nationals and seasonal summer is coming. And Bay Area people who lived/rented condos before now wanting to upgrade to a bigger home. Most of them wanted view lots, but getting desperate, so they ended up buying the inner lots (two Plan 1 homes were sitting for months sold recently).

We will most likely have a clearer picture after the summer. Sales even mentioned that prices could (emphasis on could) flatten out a bit in the fall. We will see. I certainly hope so since I can't afford to buy if prices keep going up $50k per phase.
 
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