Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

Maserson said:
www.redfin.com

59 Iluna, Irvine, CA 92618 - 5 beds/7 baths

(CRMLS) 5 beds, 6 baths, 5371 sq. ft. house located at 59 Iluna, Irvine, CA 92618 sold for $4,600,000 on May 9, 2022. MLS# OC22069753. located in 24 hour guard gated Luxury community, this better than mode...
www.redfin.com www.redfin.com

10/2021 Listed for 3.6, sold 3 weeks later for 3.7
4/2022 Listed for 4.28, sold 1 month later for 4.6
7/2022 listed for 4.99, relisted again for same.

What's up with the churn? Getting money out of China?
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Another delusional seller. 😂
 
These are all the high end homes though. I want to see the 20-30% drops in the smaller 2000sq ft units. Me getting cold called to buy Altair homes ain’t helping me
 
Mawesome Sauce said:
These are all the high end homes though. I want to see the 20-30% drops in the smaller 2000sq ft units. Me getting cold called to buy Altair homes ain’t helping me
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www.redfin.com

154 Hemisphere, Irvine, CA 92618 - 4 beds/4 baths

(CRMLS) Sold: 4 beds, 4 baths, 2432 sq. ft. condo located at 154 Hemisphere, Irvine, CA 92618 sold for $1,678,000 on Apr 3, 2023. MLS# OC22233218. Welcome home to this fully upgraded Portola Springs smart ...
www.redfin.com www.redfin.com

Like this one? $300k drop and counting in less than 30 days. More coming if the seller actually wants to sell.
 
bones said:
www.redfin.com

154 Hemisphere, Irvine, CA 92618 - 4 beds/4 baths

(CRMLS) Sold: 4 beds, 4 baths, 2432 sq. ft. condo located at 154 Hemisphere, Irvine, CA 92618 sold for $1,678,000 on Apr 3, 2023. MLS# OC22233218. Welcome home to this fully upgraded Portola Springs smart ...
www.redfin.com www.redfin.com

Like this one? $300k drop and counting in less than 30 days. More coming if the seller actually wants to sell.
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This seller was SUPER delusional. Listed at $2.1M in November, 7 months after peak? Initial listing should have been $1.7M, at most. This one won't sell higher than $1.7M.
 
CalBears96 said:
This seller was SUPER delusional. Listed at $2.1M in November, 7 months after peak? Initial listing should have been $1.7M, at most. This one won't sell higher than $1.7M.
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See that many price cuts and with those amounts buyers now smell blood in the water and will low the seller. This one will close below $1.7m for sure.
 
Mawesome Sauce said:
The problem is this shouldn’t be more than 1.5. We throw around numbers like 2 years ago didn’t exist
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Actually the problem is… you should have bought a house two years ago :). Kidding. Just channeling some of the energy on this board.

I also think this is a $1.5ish house in today’s market.
 
bones said:
Actually the problem is… you should have bought a house two years ago :). Kidding. Just channeling some of the energy on this board.

I also think this is a $1.5ish house in today’s market.
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:( I’m going to cry… saving for 2 years now and still can’t get a bigger place for the kid
 
Mawesome Sauce said:
If rates stay high enough for long enough, maybe. But I feel politics will make it hard for the Fed
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Rates will stay high for all of 2023, and most likely most of 2024.

We're getting mixed signals in regards to the economy, so even if a recession is coming, I feel that it won't be until second half of 2023. Experts are expecting Fed to raise 0.5% in December, then 0.25% again in February and in March. After that, the Fed will be playing the wait and see game. So most likely, they won't do anything until 2024.

Personally, I think housing market will drop 10% to 20% (Irvine may not drop more than 10%, unfortunately) and bottom out in 2024 or 2025. Well, at least, that's what I hope for, a bottom in 2025, because I want to buy Cielo Plan 1 and I need to time to make some money from the stock market for the down payment. 😂
 
Mawesome Sauce said:
I still think the fed goes another 50 in 2023 with two more 25s. I have no clue what the market is smoking…
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Well, I think you're wrong. Whatever the market is smoking, it's correct. One 50 in December and 25 in Feb and March sounds right. The job market is tightening, with some big Tech companies started laying off already. Raising more than that will kill the economy. The Fed wants a soft landing, but that's already out of question.
 
CalBears96 said:
Well, I think you're wrong. Whatever the market is smoking, it's correct. One 50 in December and 25 in Feb and March sounds right. The job market is tightening, with some big Tech companies started laying off already. Raising more than that will kill the economy. The Fed wants a soft landing, but that's already out of question.
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Yep. At the moment the probabilities for Fed Funds hikes are

75% chance of +50bps in December
46% chance of +25bps in February
45% chance of +25bps in March

Less than likely chance of further rate hikes after that.

The 10 year treasury rate is down around 75bps in the last few weeks. You can get a higher yield on every term shorter than 10 years than the 10 year itself. The market seems to agree with CalBears on this one too. These inversions frequently precede recessions.
 
someguy said:
Yep. At the moment the probabilities for Fed Funds hikes are

75% chance of +50bps in December
46% chance of +25bps in February
45% chance of +25bps in March

Less than likely chance of further rate hikes after that.

The 10 year treasury rate is down around 75bps in the last few weeks. You can get a higher yield on every term shorter than 10 years than the 10 year itself. The market seems to agree with CalBears on this one too. These inversions frequently precede recessions.
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The Fed will most likely get to 5% on the fed funds rate and stay there until they see inflation coming down below 3% and/or the job market starts falling apart. The long term bonds rates are definitely pricing in a recession hence why we a historically large yield curve inversion. I think the Fed will be cutting rates in later 2023/early 2024.
 
usctrojancpa said:
The Fed will most likely get to 5% on the fed funds rate and stay there until they see inflation coming down below 3% and/or the job market starts falling apart. The long term bonds rates are definitely pricing in a recession hence why we a historically large yield curve inversion. I think the Fed will be cutting rates in later 2023/early 2024.
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I think that really depends on when recession hits. Probably not until second half of 2023, in which case, Fed won't start cutting rates until early 2024.
 
CalBears96 said:
Well, I think you're wrong. Whatever the market is smoking, it's correct. One 50 in December and 25 in Feb and March sounds right. The job market is tightening, with some big Tech companies started laying off already. Raising more than that will kill the economy. The Fed wants a soft landing, but that's already out of question.
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Next FOMC, watch the dot plots. Then the futures will adjust again. We’ve been through this many times already this year. 50 again in February
 
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