Recent content by Shade_IHB

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    "4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

    Okay I can buy that ... the traditional flaws in collusion would suggest that from textbook economics. Except we are what ... almost two years into the burst bubble now? This means either there is collusion, smaller banks are incompetant, or that the cost of transaction in terms of...
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    "4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

    Doesnt this "hells breaks loose" all assume that banks will simply flood the market? The Pittsburg 15/530 mix is an example. Sure you have a backlog of properties, but at at the end of the day land is still an asset and with enough capital banks can look to the long run and bleed of a few...
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    Upcoming Tax Rebates

    Green Catus ~ a point on your Space Program comments. I happen to work in the industry on a variety of space programs. There are a few things being missed in your analysis. Companies do not invest in basic research, they do applied reseach at best. In other words the average company...
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    Housing is not an investment but what if market behaves like it is?

    I have rented and I have owned and felt the pain of both. When folks bring up comparison charts though I cant help but feel that we are comparing apples and oranges. With the exception of single family homes turned rentals a lot of the rental properties today that I see in the SoCal area...
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    Housing is not an investment but what if market behaves like it is?

    Actually I would say that the saving of renting compared to a fixed 30 year mortagae is a short term gain. You can find better data elsewhere but it kinda goes like this. Year 1 - 10 = Renter has clear savings compared to fixed mortgage Year 11 - 20 = Renters annual growth of rents...
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    Housing is not an investment but what if market behaves like it is?

    I completely agree with IrvineRenter on his bubble and commodity analysis. However I submit that IrvineRenter does not address the net present value aspects I mentioned. Even so, those invesment opportunites should not factor into most peoples decision unless they are going to stick in...
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    Can we take advantage of the market?

    I will ... unlike some of posts on speculators listed I am not trying to build a gilt edge palace of gold, simply a place that has better quality than my current abode and has a certain layout / specific features with the same rough square feet and rooms. To that end there are several...
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    Housing is not an investment but what if market behaves like it is?

    I think a lot of the question about whether or not a house is an investment comes from the buyers time perspective of how long they wish to own a home. Also you need to remember that each investor and lendor exists in a world of imperfect information and can/will make bad choices. There is...
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    Can we take advantage of the market?

    Okay ... asumming my math and querty agree. Why do I not see more people doing this? Even if you end up with say 100K more debt in the transaction it has to be better off than spending 100K remodeling the existing home as you pick up all the additional fixes that come with upgradeding a...
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    Can we take advantage of the market?

    Maybe this is where my math is off ... I consider the following statement to be true Market Value = Debt + Equity (and equity can go negative) 800K home = 400K Debt + 400K Equity. A sale of said home generates 800K cash assets and 400K trailing debt liability Assuming you...
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    Can we take advantage of the market?

    Ever wake up in the morning and realize that you may be one of the sheeple? Its a very BaaaAaaAaaaad feeling (hopefully the poorly done sheep pun worked there). Looking at Option A I am just not seeing the 800K debt which is scaring me. Home A with 400 Equity and 400 debt Home B...
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    Can we take advantage of the market?

    Well I read the "Kottan" post and it was scary enough to make me double check some stuff. Maybe I need to phrase the question in a different way (and maybe my thinkng is a bit simplistic). OPTION A ~ Build a new home, sell first home Home A has 400K debt and 400K equity Land for...
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    Can we take advantage of the market?

    I am looking for some advice as my wife and I have been kicking around a few topics lately. Essentially it boils down to three items ... 1) We would like to build a home in Irvine to our specifications opposed to buying a prebuilt. 2) With a downturn in the market, this seems like a good...
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