Recent content by Mawesome Sauce

  1. M

    Struggle with home insurance

    It’s not a home. It’s a money laundering and a wealth holding mechanism. No different than people not insuring bars and coins.
  2. M

    Struggle with home insurance

    Is insurance easier with condos since HOA covers exterior? I know HOA struggling with insurance too
  3. M

    Olivewood at Portola Springs by New Home Co.

    Nothing a recession or tax on Chinese investors can't fix. Both will happen if prices don't come down across the state soon. These are just luxury homes, and the builders deserve to go bankrupt relying on a foreign buyer of questionable legality to as the buyer. They are more surprised I am not...
  4. M

    New communities in Portola Springs

    Like I said… you think gen z and alpha are going to accept the terrible state of opportunities for them just so home owners can stay rich at their expense? They will have a revolution. Better to have peaceful wealth transfer than to have violent wealth confiscation like all those countries you...
  5. M

    New communities in Portola Springs

    I hope we get a depression just to prove you right. Either that or gen z/a will revolt and forcibly take homes for themselves.
  6. M

    Housing Analysis

    I don’t think it matters. Anything 6 months to 3 years pays pretty well right now. That’s about the term for a tenant lease. The high yields in treasuries just took out SVB. I’m wondering if some regional banks may have this issue in the next few months. That may cause lending spreads to widen...
  7. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    The market rate of rent will fall below the upkeep cost. So your net cash flow will be negative. Yes, I’m envisioning very tough times ahead, including double digit rates. The alternative is a very deep recession on an election year eve, which is unlikely but would save us the high rate...
  8. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    You sell because you are forced to. The economic conditions will force you to if you also start losing rent and have to cover the cost of maintaining the rental. I’m not sure if you have gotten too used to the low rate conditions the last 15 years. What I’m describing is how things used to be...
  9. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    your mindset is similar to someone buying a dividend paying stock and saying higher interest rates have no effect on your dividend. Assuming the dividend/rent stays constant due to weaker conditions from higher rates, what happens if stock/home prices fall by 50%? The income generation now pales...
  10. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    If the government doesn’t raise taxes on the investors, then the fed has to raise rates to indirectly tax them. You would sell your rental if rates went to 20% right? You may think I sound crazy but I fully support a mortgage rate of 20% if it obliterates the housing market and forced a reset...
  11. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    Because we don't have the guts to tax non-resident owners higher. I've said it many times... raise property taxes, then give a deduction on the state tax filing. Out of staters and foreign investors pay up on higher taxes. Make it 1%, and watch their return plummet and make them sell for better...
  12. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    Based on the comments, I don’t think my argument is clear. Let’s imagine if you got 100% return annually on a 30 year bond. Would you keep a rental property, or sell it to buy the bond? Sure, 100% isn’t realistic, but what about 50 or 25? What about 10? How high does the rate have to be for...
  13. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    Investors would sell because the price of the home is falling while there are better options out there. My scenario allows homeowners to stay there so long as they can make payments, but investors leave for better opportunities
  14. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    They can’t do the exchange if the market free falls. You need to force a liquidation in the market with the high rates, where one seller forces another to sell just so they aren’t the last one. You can only do that if a panic happens and we didn’t get that on the last high. That means we need...
  15. M

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    And to get inventory up, you need investors to liquidate real estate. To do that you need higher rates so they sell the homes for bonds.
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