OC Register: "Is Irvine Building Boom about to explode?"

iacrenter

Well-known member
My favorite part of the article was the quote from our sage Irvine Mayor Kang--"Our housing market put the economy into the recession and now will lead us out of the recession" LOL! Irvine will be in for a rude awakening if it thinks RE will rescue the local economy.

Per the OC Register today:
http://www.ocregister.com/news/irvine-253843-development-city.html

Will Irvine soon see a building boom?
By SEAN EMERY
2010-06-17 08:52:10

IRVINE ? About 5,800 new houses are on the horizon for Irvine in different planning stages, and leaders here are hoping a turnaround in construction will help kick-start the ailing local economy.

After several years of Irvine development slowing to a crawl, city officials are now processing plans for 2,409 new housing units throughout Irvine, and have completed approvals for another 3,427 housing units awaiting or already under construction. (Click here for map of development areas.)

"We have gotten to the point today where the amount of entitlements ? the planning portion that we are analyzing, reviewing and scheduling for public hearings ? has virtually returned to normal levels for the city of Irvine," Irvine Community Development Director Doug Williford said. "We are just starting to get into the second part of that, which is construction."

So far the turn-around has been led by the Irvine Co., the city's largest landowner and developer. But with plans expected to be turned in shortly on the more than 3,000-unit Great Park Neighborhoods project and the city hoping to open the floodgates to more than 6,000 new units in the so-called Irvine Business Complex, plenty of other developers are waiting in the wings.

Irvine leaders say the development turn-around has provided a silver lining as they struggle to deal with revenue declines that have forced them to dig deep into city reserves.

"Our housing market put the economy into the recession and now will lead us out of the recession," Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang said.


The development slow-down

After years of housing growth that helped push Irvine's population past 200,000 residents, development slowed dramatically over the past two years, Williford said.

"We were averaging about 3,000 dwelling units a year completed and at any given time were working on the next 3,000 units," Williford said of development in the last decade. "In 2008, we saw that start to fall dramatically, and it certainly went down to very low levels."

Despite the development slowdown, the Irvine's population continued to increase slightly, adding around 5,000 people last year, enough to make the city the fastest growing community in the state with a population of less than 300,000. Local business hotels, including the newly built Spring Hills Suites, also managed to weather the downturn, officials said.

"If you have developers building business hotels in the depths of a recession, which we did, that is your proof that there is still a heck of a lot of business going on in Irvine, a heck of a lot of business coming out of John Wayne Airport and a heck of a lot of people wanting to live in Irvine," Williford said.

City officials began to notice the development turn-around last fall, when the Irvine Co. announced plans to re-start home sales as part of their "executive build program."


The turn-around

The Irvine Co. in the past few months has already sold about 500 homes in the Woodbury and Woodbury East neighborhoods, more than double what they anticipated selling in all of 2010, Senior Vice President Mike LeBlanc said.

City and Irvine Co. officials attribute the Irvine upswing to a variety of factors, including the extensive master planning in the community that helps speed up project approvals, pent-up demand by would-be homeowners, the amount of vacant land and open space in the community, top-rated schools and the community's reputation as the safest large city in the country.

"We've always understood the market, and we do like to be at the beginning of the market upturn," LeBlanc said.

The Irvine Co. has several other projects underway, including 125 new units at "Santa Barbara in Woodbury," 694 new apartment units at "The Park at Irvine Spectrum" and 236 new units in Stonegate East. The Irvine Co. has also turned in new maps for a still-unnamed village near the Great Park.

Other homebuilders have taken note of the consumer response to new Irvine Co. developments. Emile Haddad, chief executive of Aliso Viejo-based Five Point Communities which manages the Great Park Neighborhoods project for Lennar Corp., has said development of infrastructure in the long-awaited project is expected to begin next year, with construction of housing, businesses and educational buildings possibly beginning in 2012.

"I think they are very pleased to see that first toe in the water was successful, and I think people are just waiting to see the market come back," Chris Lynch, Vice President of Business and Economic Development at the Irvine Chamber of Commerce, said of the other local homebuilders.

Still lagging behind the housing market are plans for new office or commercial projects. But there are several high profile businesses, including Hoag Hospital moving into the old Irvine Regional Hospital facility and Western Digital moving into Park Place.

"We're not seeing new office buildings or shopping centers being built; what we are seeing is tenant improvements," Williford said. "The public never sees it, but it is a tremendous amount of work for both the developer and the city."

City revenue is still a long way from where it was a few years ago, but Kang noted that sales tax has begun improving, rising 5 percent between the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.

"I take that as a very positive indication that this downturn economy has finally hit the bottom, and we are seeing the positive increases in that regard," Kang said.


A larger recovery?

While housing is showing signs of recovery, Lynch expects an overall economic turn-around to be driven by companies with strong export components that leave them less susceptible to the national credit crunch. Among the Irvine industries that have remained strong through the recession have been bio-medicine, technology and digital companies and apparel companies, Lynch said.

"Certainly housing will come back, but it is going to be a different kind of recovery," Lynch said. "It will be led by real goods and international business."

City officials are hoping the development turn-around will extend to property tax and sales tax revenue, which have suffered in recent years.

"It is enormous, particularly in Southern California, where development has always been such a significant part of the economy," Williford said. "When development goes down, we really feel it, and when development comes back we really feel it from a positive standpoint."

The increase in private development comes as city planners are also working on reviewing plans for the nearly two-dozen amenities included in the first wave of construction at the city-run Great Park, where work is expected to begin this summer.

"We have a much smaller staff than at our peak, but on a person-by-person basis, the level of work is as high as it was," Williford said. "The department is extraordinarily busy right now, and will remain that way as far out in the future as we can see."

Contact the writer: 714-796-7939 or semery@ocregister.com
 
I think these type of article is really misleading.  The thought of 5800 more new home in the pipeline really scares me.
 
I think SGIP called it Heritage Fields.

fe9000: 5800 new homes over the course of 10 years really isn't that much if TIC is able to sell 800 in 1 year.
 
Disconnect here.
fishfinder333 said:
"The Irvine Co. has also turned in new maps for a still-unnamed village near the Great Park."

What villiage is this?
Unless the poster was asking about a village OTHER than Heritage Fields built by Lennar.
 
Here is the image of the map from the OC Register related to this article--Notice there are two areas that are "Unnamed" on the map.

I believe the two areas are:
1) Planning Area 40
This place will be basically Woodbury II or Woodbury South. There used to be a great website that TIC tookdown with graphics of the area master plan--looked similar to WB (www.pa40update.com).
Here is a link to the discussion back on the old IHB:
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/202/

2) Planning Area 39
This is the area south of the 405, east of 133, and includes the Verizon amphitheater and Wild Rivers. Again there used to be a website on this area but alas TIC took it down. TIC has plans for thousands of homes in this area.
Here is a couple of links from the OC Register:
http://www.ocregister.com/news/park-132483-wild-rivers.html
http://wiki.ocregister.com/Communities/Irvine/Villages/PA_39

http://images.onset.freedom.com/ocregister/l469qo-l469q1iwndevelopmentg0614.gif
l469qo-l469q1iwndevelopmentg0614.gif
 
They have started to move the earth around the 133 "unnamed" (or maybe the north part of "laguna crossings" in the past few weeks.

Doesn't look like teracing for houses, more like putting in roads.
 
I always thought that area around the 133 was part of Laguna Crossings based on that planning map I found a while back, but it may be another village altogether (since the plans look like it was higher density housing).

That area is supposed to have a retail center so maybe they are grading for that and are going to pull an Orchard Hills where they put in the "Third Place" prior to the homes.
 
freedomcm said:
They have started to move the earth around the 133 "unnamed" (or maybe the north part of "laguna crossings" in the past few weeks.

Doesn't look like teracing for houses, more like putting in roads.
daniel-young-bio.jpg

http://www.irvinecompany.com/About-Us/daniel-young.aspx
So it looks like Dan Young from TIC has been right so far in terms of the building time table. That now places Stonegate up to bat in early 2011 and LC and OH later in 2011/early 2012? (Of course that is if the sales pace and economy continue to recover).

Per old IHB transcript of Dan Young's conference call with members back in July of 2009:
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5760/

"In the meantime, people are e-mailing here, so we?ll pick those up as well. I do have one here that I?ll try to address? and Larry, you brought this up about people?s interest in the build-out of the other villages. We have several villages where we?ve installed some or all of the infrastructure but we haven?t started the homes yet. Stonegate has been called out as one? Laguna Crossing has been called out as one? and Orchard Hills has been called out as one. So, let me give you our current thinking. First of all? our first priority? our first, second, and third priority? is to complete the villages that we?ve already started. There?s residents living there. There?s all kinds of facilities operating there. There?s schools operating there. So, we want to make sure that all of the resources that we can put into the market place are put into places where those villages are started and people are living. So, Priority One is to complete Woodbury, Woodbury East., and Portola Springs neighborhood one and two. Those were active and now we see new homes being built soon. We think the first of the year? to get more new home choices for people in those villages. What that means is? if you try to guess at how many homes are going to be absorbed over the next year or two as we move out of this recession, and we?re assuming that we are, in 2010, going to start moving out of this recession?. then, you might have a good guess and that?s really all it is? that Stonegate might open up in 2011 or 2012. Again, assuming that we?ve made great progress and are mostly finished with the build-out of Woodbury and Woodbury East. So, we?re continuing to look at the schedules, and quite frankly it requires you to be an economist and follow the national economy and we try to do that as best we can?.but based upon our best guess, the absorption that we?ve projected? it might suggest that Stonegate is in 2011. Laguna Crossing would probably follow shortly after that, as would Orchard Hills. But, what we?d really like to do? first order of business? is get those villages completed. (Instructions given for asking a question?)"

 
It would seem TIC is actually moving up their timetable because WB/WBE sold so quickly.

What's interesting is we've seen no plans (or hints of them) for the rest of Portola Springs yet. We need PatStar to use his public records search skills.
 
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