Author Topic: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…  (Read 236049 times)

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Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #810 on: October 13, 2021, 05:54:19 PM »
I think the demand may go down if prices remain high and Fed decides to raise rates sooner to combat inflation. Rates are currently expected to raise mid to late next year. If rates go to 3.5-4%, I would think we see some decrease in demand which may cause homes to sit on market longer than now.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #811 on: October 14, 2021, 07:22:29 AM »
According to our resident Irvine doubter... OC is doing better than Irvine... is that true?

As a matter of fact it is:  Page 9 ~ http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/New-OC-Irvine-October-2021-Market-Report-OCHN-New.pdf

Irvine is lagging Orange County, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley.  (There isn't comparison data for any other cities.)

I know everybody will come up with excuses in Irvine's defense, but remember it was supposed to be this special place that crashes last, crashes least, and recovers first.  That hasn't been the case this cycle.

One thing that Irvine has against it is the law of large numbers.  Sure, some lower cost OC cities may show a higher % gain than Irvine but in absolute dollars Irvine is performing at the top of the list of cities in OC.  The competition in Irvine is brutal, pretty much every home that I make an offer on gets 5-20+ offers (I don't see as many offers on homes outside of Irvine). 
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #812 on: October 14, 2021, 10:35:19 AM »
Page 8 of 35 of PDF shows Irvine increased less %-wise year over year (3-4% less), but the median home price in Irvine is much higher.

You’re taking one data set instead of combining multiple data sets. Stanton is mid $600K median home price.  Even if Stanton rose 3% more than Irvine it’s meaningless.

Huntington Beach and Fountain Valley are similarly priced and still exceed Irvine by 3-4%.  D'oh!

So you went from crashes hard in Irvine over 40% is what you wrote and suggesting owners to sell even as far back as a year ago, to now saying it lag other city in percentage increase? Nice comparison bro, try to buy a home now and see if you can afford it.

This shred any credibility you have. I don't rely on any charts, I see it, live it and breath it everyday. And look at over sea Chinese buyers are not pouring in money and hey its up more than eva....What do you say to that? Man, we don't hate where you live, why you hate where we live?

Even USC's chart shows you are wrong and he lives and breathes Irvine real estate more than you do.  Irvine was in a 3-year decline and funk until the Covid QE began.  Easy money is the only thing keeping you alive, and even with that injection of housing meth, Irvine is barely hanging on.  It still trails all the other cities listed AND none of them have Chinese buyers either!

There's no way he's touching my miss cleo crown.

Miss Cleo was a genius and I don't claim to be as smart as her.  Years ago I had a roommate that called Miss Cleo and ran our phone bill up by $240 (in early 2000's money).  It was pure stupidity of her to call, but once she was on the call, Miss Cleo found a way to keep her talking and not hanging up for as long as possible.  Now multiply that scam by tens of thousands of calls and Miss Cleo was making some serious bank!

I have the ability to entertaining opposing ideas, but I would not buy in Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley simply because the total percentage rate of increase is higher than Irvine.

If that is the only reason for you to buy any city vs Irvine, then by all mean there is hell lot of other cheaper more affordable places that you can buy beside those listed.

Irvine is losing to all those other cities you look down on.  How sad is that?

One thing that Irvine has against it is the law of large numbers.  Sure, some lower cost OC cities may show a higher % gain than Irvine but in absolute dollars Irvine is performing at the top of the list of cities in OC.  The competition in Irvine is brutal, pretty much every home that I make an offer on gets 5-20+ offers (I don't see as many offers on homes outside of Irvine). 

Yes, and Huntington Beach & Fountain Valley also have this same problem but have found a way to outperform Irvine by 3-4%. Haha... 

Number of offers is simply anecdotal and will highly depend on your listing strategy, as all sellers of real estate know.  What matters for determining the strength of a market is number of sales and purchase price.

Offline TestingIrvine

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #813 on: October 14, 2021, 10:59:09 AM »
This is a classic troll, so entertaining.

Trolling a random Irvine dedicated website for fun.  I wish I had that much time to troll random websites.

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Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #814 on: October 14, 2021, 11:44:15 AM »
"Yes, and Huntington Beach & Fountain Valley also have this same problem but have found a way to outperform Irvine by 3-4%. Haha... 

Number of offers is simply anecdotal and will highly depend on your listing strategy, as all sellers of real estate know.  What matters for determining the strength of a market is number of sales and purchase price."

My mom's house was in FV. When she died I wanted to keep her completely paid off, no HOA, $700 per YEAR property taxes but was outvoted by my sisters so it was sold. I watch that area alot and having lived there know about the area.

The homes are old. (My moms was one of the first neighborhoods and is now 57 years old). The houses in her neighborhood were solidly built and many of them have been redone (removing one wall between the kitchen and dining room gives you a new big open kitchen, new appliances, granite counters and nook instead of the old kitchen with separate dining room). The bedrooms are good sized. Easy to build up OR extend the home as the lots are big enough to add onto. In fact most of the older homes are over 7200 sq feet single story homes. 7200 sq feet is the minimum the city requires for granny flats (even before recent legislation).

Old people want single stories. This area has plenty of them. No HOA, No Mello. Decent schools. Near the 405.

You can buy in Westminster or Anaheim but the lots are smaller, harder to add onto and the schools are not as good.

That is why FV homes remain desirable. It's the lower overall monthly $$$.



« Last Edit: October 14, 2021, 11:49:42 AM by Ready2Downsize »

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #815 on: October 14, 2021, 12:37:43 PM »
Page 8 of 35 of PDF shows Irvine increased less %-wise year over year (3-4% less), but the median home price in Irvine is much higher.

You’re taking one data set instead of combining multiple data sets. Stanton is mid $600K median home price.  Even if Stanton rose 3% more than Irvine it’s meaningless.

Huntington Beach and Fountain Valley are similarly priced and still exceed Irvine by 3-4%.  D'oh!

So you went from crashes hard in Irvine over 40% is what you wrote and suggesting owners to sell even as far back as a year ago, to now saying it lag other city in percentage increase? Nice comparison bro, try to buy a home now and see if you can afford it.

This shred any credibility you have. I don't rely on any charts, I see it, live it and breath it everyday. And look at over sea Chinese buyers are not pouring in money and hey its up more than eva....What do you say to that? Man, we don't hate where you live, why you hate where we live?

Even USC's chart shows you are wrong and he lives and breathes Irvine real estate more than you do.  Irvine was in a 3-year decline and funk until the Covid QE began.  Easy money is the only thing keeping you alive, and even with that injection of housing meth, Irvine is barely hanging on.  It still trails all the other cities listed AND none of them have Chinese buyers either!

There's no way he's touching my miss cleo crown.

Miss Cleo was a genius and I don't claim to be as smart as her.  Years ago I had a roommate that called Miss Cleo and ran our phone bill up by $240 (in early 2000's money).  It was pure stupidity of her to call, but once she was on the call, Miss Cleo found a way to keep her talking and not hanging up for as long as possible.  Now multiply that scam by tens of thousands of calls and Miss Cleo was making some serious bank!

I have the ability to entertaining opposing ideas, but I would not buy in Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley simply because the total percentage rate of increase is higher than Irvine.

If that is the only reason for you to buy any city vs Irvine, then by all mean there is hell lot of other cheaper more affordable places that you can buy beside those listed.

Irvine is losing to all those other cities you look down on.  How sad is that?

One thing that Irvine has against it is the law of large numbers.  Sure, some lower cost OC cities may show a higher % gain than Irvine but in absolute dollars Irvine is performing at the top of the list of cities in OC.  The competition in Irvine is brutal, pretty much every home that I make an offer on gets 5-20+ offers (I don't see as many offers on homes outside of Irvine). 

Yes, and Huntington Beach & Fountain Valley also have this same problem but have found a way to outperform Irvine by 3-4%. Haha... 

Number of offers is simply anecdotal and will highly depend on your listing strategy, as all sellers of real estate know.  What matters for determining the strength of a market is number of sales and purchase price.

One thing that I do tell my Irvine buyers is that if Irvine had no new home inventory (call it today's shadow inventory because those homes never hits the MLS for the most part), prices would be have been up another 5-10%.  Irvine builders are selling their homes as soon as they release them.  I've mentioned it before, Covid pushed up the demand for larger lot SFR homes more than any other type of property and you typically see those types of homes in areas outside of Irvine.  R2D also made a great point that these old OC communities have many more single story homes as a % than Irvine because no single story homes are being built in Irvine today which is also increasing in demand as the population continues to age. 
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline fatduck

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #816 on: October 14, 2021, 01:17:21 PM »
I went to an open house for a single story SFR in Laguna Niguel, was the only person there under 70, and it went for almost $700/sqft

Offline OCtoSV

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #817 on: October 14, 2021, 01:22:42 PM »
great data LL, and great discussion. Where is Bkshopr to weigh in? I miss the IHB forum days.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #818 on: October 14, 2021, 01:48:39 PM »
I went to an open house for a single story SFR in Laguna Niguel, was the only person there under 70, and it went for almost $700/sqft

Single story homes typically sell for a 20-25%+ higher price per square foot than 2-level homes.  Those older buyers that you saw are mostly cash buyers as well.
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Offline fatduck

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #819 on: October 14, 2021, 02:23:15 PM »
I went to an open house for a single story SFR in Laguna Niguel, was the only person there under 70, and it went for almost $700/sqft

Single story homes typically sell for a 20-25%+ higher price per square foot than 2-level homes.  Those older buyers that you saw are mostly cash buyers as well.
Also the interior was designed by Caesar Augustus

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Niguel/28376-Via-Alfonse-92677/home/4930135?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #820 on: October 14, 2021, 02:44:42 PM »
I went to an open house for a single story SFR in Laguna Niguel, was the only person there under 70, and it went for almost $700/sqft

Single story homes typically sell for a 20-25%+ higher price per square foot than 2-level homes.  Those older buyers that you saw are mostly cash buyers as well.
Also the interior was designed by Caesar Augustus

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Niguel/28376-Via-Alfonse-92677/home/4930135?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Nice clean looking home with high ceilings and only one neighbor, not surprising it went for also $700sf.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline Irvinehomeseeker

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #821 on: October 14, 2021, 02:45:00 PM »
I went to an open house for a single story SFR in Laguna Niguel, was the only person there under 70, and it went for almost $700/sqft

Single story homes typically sell for a 20-25%+ higher price per square foot than 2-level homes.  Those older buyers that you saw are mostly cash buyers as well.

I didn't quite realize the value of these single level homes. My wife was very interested in the brand new single level Napa home in EW that was being offered at 1.4M last October, but I was unsure.  Come March 2021, an almost model match on the behind street sold for 1.8M!! and I was like  :'( on missed opportunity!

Offline freedomcm

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #822 on: October 15, 2021, 06:18:34 AM »
3.5%?  The Fed hasn't even pulled back on QE.  I doubt we will see 3.5% in the next decade.


I think the demand may go down if prices remain high and Fed decides to raise rates sooner to combat inflation. Rates are currently expected to raise mid to late next year. If rates go to 3.5-4%, I would think we see some decrease in demand which may cause homes to sit on market longer than now.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #823 on: October 15, 2021, 08:26:53 AM »
3.5%?  The Fed hasn't even pulled back on QE.  I doubt we will see 3.5% in the next decade.


I think the demand may go down if prices remain high and Fed decides to raise rates sooner to combat inflation. Rates are currently expected to raise mid to late next year. If rates go to 3.5-4%, I would think we see some decrease in demand which may cause homes to sit on market longer than now.

We have way way too much debt so the FED won't get too frisky with interest rate increases and we'll go the way of Japan and Europe with perpetual low rates.  A lot of the inflation that we are seeing is due to supply chain issues which will be resolved in the next few years with additional capacity and Covid playing less and less of any issue.  We'll see 2.50% rates before we see 4.00% rates for mortgages. 
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #824 on: October 15, 2021, 09:58:29 AM »
3.5%?  The Fed hasn't even pulled back on QE.  I doubt we will see 3.5% in the next decade.


I think the demand may go down if prices remain high and Fed decides to raise rates sooner to combat inflation. Rates are currently expected to raise mid to late next year. If rates go to 3.5-4%, I would think we see some decrease in demand which may cause homes to sit on market longer than now.


What Sleepy was referencing is the mortgage rate.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/daily.aspx

The mortgage rate follow closely to the 10 year bond rate.

You can have the FED funds rate stay at zero, but the 10 yield push up, so will the mortgage rate. If the FED dial back MBS purchase 40 Billion to what they are outline to 30, then 20 and then 10 so on each month follow, as they have describes the path forward to slowly withdrawl support, then 10 years yield will rise higher to gain attractiveness for investor to buy. This will push mortgage rate to 3.5% or low 4 % as the FED still in zero bound FED funds rate.

Having said that, institutions and pensions funds will seek to for higher return and continue to target residential rental market. This is where the cheese is at. Pensions funds are lock and loaded with available funds to scoop it up even before I finish writing this sentence. If there is an imminent crash, the FED has already done saving equitities last year but it won't let the housing sink. We saw what the FED did in scooping up corporate bonds and junk bonds. Who to say treasury can't do the same, if neccessary. Its a matter of which boat do they want to let sink and which one they will want to stay afloat. Debt has to be repaid, write off or restructures. Tangible assets, like rental markets will and continue to be shelters of the growing populations.

This is why Donald Bren is the 50th richest person in the United State ranking in Fortune. He knows where the cheese is at.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2021, 10:10:52 AM by Compressed-Village »

 

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