Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…

[USCTrojanCPA]

I haven't posted the Irvine data in above 6 months since I've been so swamped with not only trying to get my buyers homes but also listing the most homes I've ever listed in a year.  Attached is the data through Sept 2021 for Irvine which is confirms how strong the market really is.

When I have conversations with my buyers who ask me why there are so few listings on the market I just tell them it's because there is so much demand out there.  It's not a supply problem as there have been almost as many homes listed for sale in Irvine through Sept of this year as there was in all of 2019 or 2020.  In the past 12 months through Sept. 2021 we've had 1,250 more sales (or over 47%) more than 2019.  Another question I get from buyers, is this a bubble and will we prices crash.  My answer to them...it's not going to crash and prices will continue to go higher until there is less demand and more supply of homes on the market.  We currently have less than 1 month of supply of homes on the market because over 90% of listings go into escrow within 7-10 days today with multiple offers. 

The high demand is being driven by several factors including move-up buyers with a ton of equity, first time home buyers, and buyers relocating from LA, the Bay Area, and other higher priced markets due to the work from home flexibility (I've had over a dozen of those buyers in the year myself).  This huge demand has resulted in most all homes getting 5-20+ offers which translated to prices being up about 20% year-over-year as we approach a median price per SF of $600 in Irvine.  Today, we have almost 3x times as many homes in escrow are there are active listings which I have never seen in my 15 years of tracking Irvine real estate.  Until inventory increases significantly, prices will continue to go higher even from today's prices.  Look how much inventory has declined just from June and July, this is why prices keep climbing.

[USCTrojanCPA]

And here are some charts for closed sales, active listings, median prices, and days-on-market (DOM) to show what has been happening in the past 6 months....

[aquabliss]

Yikes, that Active Listings chart!  I wonder how far back you have to go to find <300 available listings (if ever). 

[Cares]

Nah those charts are fake news. I prefer to go with random OC blogger post about the market crashing.

[Compressed-Village]

Ha ha, I like your thoughts. Good reportings here USC.

That random OC Blogger, claims that I am too emotionally involve in Irvine housing. These charts making me hurts so good. The pains I am feeling never felt better..  . Of course, next year, he'll be back to drop a line or two of the same shits.

You gotta love those trolls though, because without naysayers, it ain't fun.

[USCTrojanCPA]

Yikes, that Active Listings chart!  I wonder how far back you have to go to find <300 available listings (if ever). 

It's never been that low going back to 2008, the lowest point of inventory before now was back in March 2013 with 325 homes on the market when the market was on fire (we saw 20%+ price appreciation from late 2012 to late 2013). 

[USCTrojanCPA]

Ha ha, I like your thoughts. Good reportings here USC.

That random OC Blogger, claims that I am too emotionally involve in Irvine housing. These charts making me hurts so good. The pains I am feeling never felt better..  . Of course, next year, he'll be back to drop a line or two of the same shits.

You gotta love those trolls though, because without naysayers, it ain't fun.

And prices are going higher from here based upon what I'm seeing.  You don't need MLS access to see what I'm seeing, go look on Redfin and see how many active listings there are in Irvine today.  Until inventory increases materially, prices will continue to move higher.

[irvinehomeowner]

According to our resident Irvine doubter... OC is doing better than Irvine... is that true?

[Compressed-Village]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/home-prices-will-grow-a-further-16-by-end-of-next-year-goldman-forecast-203019920.html


Not welcoming news for buyers. COVID really screws things up, in a big way. 

[CalBears96]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/home-prices-will-grow-a-further-16-by-end-of-next-year-goldman-forecast-203019920.html


Not welcoming news for buyers. COVID really screws things up, in a big way. 

Yeah, according to a sales consultant at Toll Brother's The Meadows, the price for each phase release will increase by 1-1.5%, which is in line with that 16% growth by end of next year. Very unfortunate for me who's looking to buy in Irvine. 

[Liar Loan]

According to our resident Irvine doubter... OC is doing better than Irvine... is that true?

As a matter of fact it is:  Page 9 ~ http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/New-OC-Irvine-October-2021-Market-Report-OCHN-New.pdf

Irvine is lagging Orange County, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley.  (There isn't comparison data for any other cities.)

I know everybody will come up with excuses in Irvine's defense, but remember it was supposed to be this special place that crashes last, crashes least, and recovers first.  That hasn't been the case this cycle.

[TestingIrvine]

Page 8 of 35 of PDF shows Irvine increased less %-wise year over year (3-4% less), but the median home price in Irvine is much higher.

You’re taking one data set instead of combining multiple data sets. Stanton is mid $600K median home price.  Even if Stanton rose 3% more than Irvine it’s meaningless.

[Compressed-Village]

According to our resident Irvine doubter... OC is doing better than Irvine... is that true?

As a matter of fact it is:  Page 9 ~ http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/New-OC-Irvine-October-2021-Market-Report-OCHN-New.pdf

Irvine is lagging Orange County, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley.  (There isn't comparison data for any other cities.)

I know everybody will come up with excuses in Irvine's defense, but remember it was supposed to be this special place that crashes last, crashes least, and recovers first.  That hasn't been the case this cycle.

So you went from crashes hard in Irvine over 40% is what you wrote and suggesting owners to sell even as far back as a year ago, to now saying it lag other city in percentage increase? Nice comparison bro, try to buy a home now and see if you can afford it.

This shred any credibility you have. I don't rely on any charts, I see it, live it and breath it everyday. And look at over sea Chinese buyers are not pouring in money and hey its up more than eva....What do you say to that? Man, we don't hate where you live, why you hate where we live?

[zubs]

Most people who are wrong don't come back.
You should thank LL for staying and taking the heat...

I'm ok that he warped his forecasts so much that now he is right in his own mind.

There's no way he's touching my miss cleo crown.

[Compressed-Village]

Most people who are wrong don't come back.
You should thank LL for staying and taking the heat...

I'm ok that he warped his forecasts so much that now he is right in his own mind.

There's no way he's touching my miss cleo crown.

You right, we are suppose to be supportive and forgiving, even when spat upon. Fear mongering, and hyperbole from LiarLoans.

OK Liars, lets see what other things can you prove us wrong.

I have the ability to entertaining opposing ideas, but I would not buy in Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley simply because the total percentage rate of increase is higher than Irvine.

If that is the only reason for you to buy any city vs Irvine, then by all mean there is hell lot of other cheaper more affordable places that you can buy beside those listed.