Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…

[USCTrojanCPA]

I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Why do you say you were wrong?  if you bought in 2019 it was actually a great time to buy.  Housing prices appear to be closely tied to interest rates.  In 2019 however we saw prices actually fall a bit along with low rates.

Actually prices rebounded in early 2019 from the low point in late 2018 as interest rates came down from 5% into the mid 3% by Jan/Feb 2019.  The 3-5% price decline that we saw in Irvine started in the late summer/early fall when rates started moving up and inventory strated to build but then the declines stopped by the end of 2018 as we ended the year below 4% on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The low end of the market was the first one to stall and then recover.  Remember, inventory levels are a future indicator of where prices are going.

[kpatnps]

Alright in all seriousness...

I think more and more people are buying these days because:

1) of the low interest rates.

2) Covid is forcing people to stay home so people spend more on home by owning or buying stuff in.

3) the home price is just not falling/crashing (yet).

I see these as reasons based on people buying around me. Any counter arguments are welcome as long as they'r not as rude as eyephone's.

agree with the first two.  I also think that the skyrocketing stock market is encouraging higher purchase prices.  People feel rich and are more apt to buy bigger and more expensive homes.  Unfortunately I do not expect the market to continue its trajectory and when the stock market tanks without doubt it will have a negative affect on housing market.

[USCTrojanCPA]

Alright in all seriousness...

I think more and more people are buying these days because:

1) of the low interest rates.

2) Covid is forcing people to stay home so people spend more on home by owning or buying stuff in.

3) the home price is just not falling/crashing (yet).

I see these as reasons based on people buying around me. Any counter arguments are welcome as long as they'r not as rude as eyephone's.

agree with the first two.  I also think that the skyrocketing stock market is encouraging higher purchase prices.  People feel rich and are more apt to buy bigger and more expensive homes.  Unfortunately I do not expect the market to continue its trajectory and when the stock market tanks without doubt it will have a negative affect on housing market.

I don't think a market "correction" will affect the real estate market much because that will force rates lower, we'd need a big crash to have any kind of negative effect on real estate prices.  Real estate sediment can be sort of a herd mentality, when people see prices going up and rates low the greed sets in and people don't want to miss out.  Real estate prices began picking up before the stock market even recovered and was driven by the falling interest rates.  The lower and middle market is more driven by interest rates, the higher end buyers are more driven by their earning power and net worth (so yes, a higher stock market makes them more willing to buy).  The thing that will slow down real estate will be materially higher interest rates...like 3.50%+ which is not happening anytime soon with the Fed's helicopter money.  As a smart man once told me, NEVER FIGHT THE FED!

[zubs]

I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Why do you say you were wrong?  if you bought in 2019 it was actually a great time to buy.  Housing prices appear to be closely tied to interest rates.  In 2019 however we saw prices actually fall a bit along with low rates.

As mety says, housing had already gone up from the end of 2012 to 2018...how can it go higher?...but the government...they find a way..

[Mety]

If you took that picture nosuchreality posted as a real RE sales photo, then I can’t really take you seriously. You took a joke and made into an accusation of a fake scenario. Come on, you can’t really be serious about this.

Don’t worry I don’t take you serious. I thought new year, maybe this guy got smarter or something. Just be reasonable. Is that hard to ask?

This is what you said:

Actually that is a bargain. That much land in Irvine or even any part of OC for that price? Yeah, I'll take it.

Here’s the thing. A person that might be interested in buying a house or selling a house. They might read your post and trust you. But even you said that you were joking around. So just say it next time.

Ok. Just for you, I’ll make sure to say JK when I’m kidding. I’ll respect your concern. But why didn’t you say the same thing to Cares who wrote the same thing above me about this joke about the picture? Anyways, I’ll honor your request from now on. I’m not kidding.

[Mety]

I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Why do you say you were wrong?  if you bought in 2019 it was actually a great time to buy.  Housing prices appear to be closely tied to interest rates.  In 2019 however we saw prices actually fall a bit along with low rates.

I was wrong on the amount of the price decrease and the length of time. I thought it would drop around 15-20% at least, but that didn’t happen. And the price picked going back up much earlier than I thought. No one can ever guess those things correctly, but just saying what I was wrong at.

[kpatnps]

I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Why do you say you were wrong?  if you bought in 2019 it was actually a great time to buy.  Housing prices appear to be closely tied to interest rates.  In 2019 however we saw prices actually fall a bit along with low rates.

Actually prices rebounded in early 2019 from the low point in late 2018 as interest rates came down from 5% into the mid 3% by Jan/Feb 2019.  The 3-5% price decline that we saw in Irvine started in the late summer/early fall when rates started moving up and inventory strated to build but then the declines stopped by the end of 2018 as we ended the year below 4% on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The low end of the market was the first one to stall and then recover.  Remember, inventory levels are a future indicator of where prices are going.

Sorry I dont recall pricing rebounding early 2019.  Seems like the charts also didnt see it either.   

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview

[eyephone]

If you took that picture nosuchreality posted as a real RE sales photo, then I can’t really take you seriously. You took a joke and made into an accusation of a fake scenario. Come on, you can’t really be serious about this.

Don’t worry I don’t take you serious. I thought new year, maybe this guy got smarter or something. Just be reasonable. Is that hard to ask?

This is what you said:

Actually that is a bargain. That much land in Irvine or even any part of OC for that price? Yeah, I'll take it.

Here’s the thing. A person that might be interested in buying a house or selling a house. They might read your post and trust you. But even you said that you were joking around. So just say it next time.

Ok. Just for you, I’ll make sure to say JK when I’m kidding. I’ll respect your concern. But why didn’t you say the same thing to Cares who wrote the same thing above me about this joke about the picture? Anyways, I’ll honor your request from now on. I’m not kidding.

You have a point. I don’t think cares has a reputation for misinformation like you do.

[USCTrojanCPA]

I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Why do you say you were wrong?  if you bought in 2019 it was actually a great time to buy.  Housing prices appear to be closely tied to interest rates.  In 2019 however we saw prices actually fall a bit along with low rates.

As mety says, housing had already gone up from the end of 2012 to 2018...how can it go higher?...but the government...they find a way..

I have 3 words for you zubs...

Print Baby Print

[USCTrojanCPA]

I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Why do you say you were wrong?  if you bought in 2019 it was actually a great time to buy.  Housing prices appear to be closely tied to interest rates.  In 2019 however we saw prices actually fall a bit along with low rates.

Actually prices rebounded in early 2019 from the low point in late 2018 as interest rates came down from 5% into the mid 3% by Jan/Feb 2019.  The 3-5% price decline that we saw in Irvine started in the late summer/early fall when rates started moving up and inventory strated to build but then the declines stopped by the end of 2018 as we ended the year below 4% on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The low end of the market was the first one to stall and then recover.  Remember, inventory levels are a future indicator of where prices are going.

Sorry I dont recall pricing rebounding early 2019.  Seems like the charts also didnt see it either.   

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview

Prices started rebounding in 1Q 2019 for the properties that my clients were buying and selling (mostly all lower and middle-market).  The higher-end was still sucking wind back then and that's what dragged down the averages down because you had a huge amount of high-end inventory (something like 8+ months of inventory). Those charts don't tell the full story.

[kpatnps]

I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Why do you say you were wrong?  if you bought in 2019 it was actually a great time to buy.  Housing prices appear to be closely tied to interest rates.  In 2019 however we saw prices actually fall a bit along with low rates.

Actually prices rebounded in early 2019 from the low point in late 2018 as interest rates came down from 5% into the mid 3% by Jan/Feb 2019.  The 3-5% price decline that we saw in Irvine started in the late summer/early fall when rates started moving up and inventory strated to build but then the declines stopped by the end of 2018 as we ended the year below 4% on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The low end of the market was the first one to stall and then recover.  Remember, inventory levels are a future indicator of where prices are going.

Sorry I dont recall pricing rebounding early 2019.  Seems like the charts also didnt see it either.   

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview

Prices started rebounding in 1Q 2019 for the properties that my clients were buying and selling (mostly all lower and middle-market).  The higher-end was still sucking wind back then and that's what dragged down the averages down because you had a huge amount of high-end inventory (something like 8+ months of inventory). Those charts don't tell the full story.

No offense, but I would argue that these charts which encompasses every sale in Irvine tells more of a complete story than the dozen or two transactions of one realtor. 

[Mety]

If you took that picture nosuchreality posted as a real RE sales photo, then I can’t really take you seriously. You took a joke and made into an accusation of a fake scenario. Come on, you can’t really be serious about this.

Don’t worry I don’t take you serious. I thought new year, maybe this guy got smarter or something. Just be reasonable. Is that hard to ask?

This is what you said:

Actually that is a bargain. That much land in Irvine or even any part of OC for that price? Yeah, I'll take it.

Here’s the thing. A person that might be interested in buying a house or selling a house. They might read your post and trust you. But even you said that you were joking around. So just say it next time.

Ok. Just for you, I’ll make sure to say JK when I’m kidding. I’ll respect your concern. But why didn’t you say the same thing to Cares who wrote the same thing above me about this joke about the picture? Anyways, I’ll honor your request from now on. I’m not kidding.

You have a point. I don’t think cares has a reputation for misinformation like you do.

You just want to attack me for some reason. It’s ok. I still love you. I’m not kidding.

[eyephone]

What? I haven’t made a direct comment towards you this year since yesterday or maybe I have. But I can’t remember.

[USCTrojanCPA]

I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Why do you say you were wrong?  if you bought in 2019 it was actually a great time to buy.  Housing prices appear to be closely tied to interest rates.  In 2019 however we saw prices actually fall a bit along with low rates.

Actually prices rebounded in early 2019 from the low point in late 2018 as interest rates came down from 5% into the mid 3% by Jan/Feb 2019.  The 3-5% price decline that we saw in Irvine started in the late summer/early fall when rates started moving up and inventory strated to build but then the declines stopped by the end of 2018 as we ended the year below 4% on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The low end of the market was the first one to stall and then recover.  Remember, inventory levels are a future indicator of where prices are going.

Sorry I dont recall pricing rebounding early 2019.  Seems like the charts also didnt see it either.   

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview

Prices started rebounding in 1Q 2019 for the properties that my clients were buying and selling (mostly all lower and middle-market).  The higher-end was still sucking wind back then and that's what dragged down the averages down because you had a huge amount of high-end inventory (something like 8+ months of inventory). Those charts don't tell the full story.

No offense, but I would argue that these charts which encompasses every sale in Irvine tells more of a complete story than the dozen or two transactions of one realtor. 

No offense taken, charts are one piece of the data puzzle and are more a macro view of the market while what I see with my buyers and listings along with tracking Irvine MLS activity are a micro view of the market.  I also break up the market into 3 cuts....lower end (sub $900k), middle-market ($900k to $1.4ish), and higher-end ($1.5m+)...each market is different.  Regardless, increasing rates that touched 5% slowed the market down and then when rates turned back down in 2019 the market began to pick up again (more so on the lower end).

[sleepy5136]

Alright in all seriousness...

I think more and more people are buying these days because:

1) of the low interest rates.

2) Covid is forcing people to stay home so people spend more on home by owning or buying stuff in.

3) the home price is just not falling/crashing (yet).

I see these as reasons based on people buying around me. Any counter arguments are welcome as long as they'r not as rude as eyephone's.

agree with the first two.  I also think that the skyrocketing stock market is encouraging higher purchase prices.  People feel rich and are more apt to buy bigger and more expensive homes.  Unfortunately I do not expect the market to continue its trajectory and when the stock market tanks without doubt it will have a negative affect on housing market.

+1 was able to buy my first home because of the stock market gains in 2020. Absolutely the most gains I've had in my young investing career which has elevated me to a point where I can buy a home.