Author Topic: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…  (Read 120535 times)

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Offline Mety

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #480 on: March 21, 2019, 03:11:12 PM »
Seems like the interest rate will keep falling. This is a trap to capture many lower end buyers. Then there will be a recession possibly later this year or next year (I lean towards more around the presidential election time) and those who bought so high will regret. Of course, if they bought a home they could afford, then no biggie, right?

Again, these are my opinions and predictions. Take it or predict your own.




Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #481 on: March 21, 2019, 05:30:40 PM »
Sounds like a mini-clone of what happened in during the last crash where everyone thought prices would crater because interest rates would go up and the Fed surprised everyone (and I mean everyone because no one predicted rates to fall to the 3s) by bringing rates to record lows.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #482 on: March 22, 2019, 09:30:13 AM »
Sounds like a mini-clone of what happened in during the last crash where everyone thought prices would crater because interest rates would go up and the Fed surprised everyone (and I mean everyone because no one predicted rates to fall to the 3s) by bringing rates to record lows.

THE CRASH, the mother of housing melt down in 08, WAS a once in a lifetime events. Now when a slow down occur, other triggers will kick-in to juice the systems and revive it. Buy when rate is high and rooms to negotiate  for price improvements, or wait for price to stagnate and rate drop and have no room to negotiate. It’s not an easy choice, so people just rent longer and wait. During the .com crash 2001, housing actually took off and gained momentum as people cashed out and dumping it into real estate.

Offline irvineband

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #483 on: March 22, 2019, 11:43:24 AM »

This one seems alright though:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomdale-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link


This one looks nice. But the price is definitely too high. Looks like the seller is still looking for early 2018 prices. Look at this WB home that recently closed

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-W-Yale-Loop-92604/unit-1/home/5462921

Oct 2018 list price 1.15 mil
Feb 2019 sold price 876k.

Whooping 25% off the original list price.

If you are very firm on WB and SFR you could be waiting for awhile. WB resales are mostly condos.

Let us see how “definitely too high” 29 Bloomdale really is since it just went pending. Again, the West Yale home is a poor comp.

Offline meccos12

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #484 on: March 22, 2019, 11:54:58 AM »
Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).
I actually think the opposite is happening.  Sales volume is picking back up, but prices are still dropping.  Im sure the lower and lower rates have helped sales.  Prices follow volume and the affect on prices is delayed.  Just my opinion.

Offline zubs

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #485 on: March 22, 2019, 12:06:48 PM »
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.

The drop never happened as big as we all thought...and why?

Government interference.  Mortgage rates at 3% and lower.

If housing keeps going down, I expect our government to rescue housing again. QE infinity....no one thought the government would do such a thing, but they did.....How long can we kick the can?

Offline ThirtySomethingWEquity

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #486 on: March 22, 2019, 12:48:37 PM »
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.


Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.

Offline Mety

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #487 on: March 22, 2019, 01:12:26 PM »
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.


Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.

Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.


Offline ThirtySomethingWEquity

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #488 on: March 22, 2019, 01:59:14 PM »

Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.

heh I don't actually think eyephone is graphix.  Eyephone's predictions, while maybe the most bearish on the forum, are actually reasonable.  Graphix was in nutter land.  I think Eyephone is wrong on his predictions but not insane.

Offline momopi

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #489 on: March 22, 2019, 02:15:43 PM »
Some properties, such as small condos in Irvine did experience large drops.  For example:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2215-Apricot-Dr-92618/unit-2215/home/5259697

If you look at the property history, this condo dropped to $200K in 2012.  This one dropped to $189K:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/105-Lemon-Grv-92618/unit-264/home/5479490

I own condos in Oak Park and saw value drop from $440K to $230K from peak to bottom in previous cycle.


Be warned that these condos have high HOA fees.  Even if you buy at market low with a loan it's hard to break-even after all the fees and taxes are added.  My next investment property will most likely be outside of Irvine.

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Offline Kenkoko

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #490 on: March 22, 2019, 02:50:34 PM »
Let us see how “definitely too high” 29 Bloomdale really is since it just went pending. Again, the West Yale home is a poor comp.

I didn't post the west yale loop condo as a comp to the bloomdale house. One is a attached condo and one is a detached SFR.

I posted the west yale loop condo to echo what USC and others have observed in today's market listing. There are many delusional sellers chasing early 2018 prices. Some sellers realized the market has changed ( like the yale loop condo seller) and accepted the new reality even if that meant taking a 25% haircut off the original asking price.

I still think 29 Bloomdale was priced too high. If I were to make a bet, I would bet that it does not sell for above the lowered listing price. I guess we will find out soon enough. This house would easily fetched 1.2 mil or over had it been listed March 2018 instead.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #491 on: March 22, 2019, 03:01:42 PM »
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.


Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.

Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.



I’ve never made an alt account. Why would I?

Panda was the OG, BTB did it so much almost any new account gets accused of being him.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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www.irvinerealtorsite.com
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Offline Kenkoko

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #492 on: April 25, 2019, 10:06:14 AM »
Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/


Offline eyephone

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #493 on: April 25, 2019, 10:13:01 AM »
Actually I think someone on TI relies on Zillow’s temperature. Lol
(Not me of course) ;)

Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #494 on: April 25, 2019, 10:24:46 AM »
Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

You know who is also "neutral"/"cool"/"cold"?

Newport Beach:  https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/

Pasadena:  https://www.zillow.com/pasadena-ca/home-values/

Arcadia:  https://www.zillow.com/arcadia-ca/home-values/

San Marino:  https://www.zillow.com/san-marino-ca/home-values/

Palo Alto:  https://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-values/

 

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