Author Topic: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…  (Read 286119 times)

0 Members and 5 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 785
  • -Received: 502
  • Posts: 2503
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #990 on: May 11, 2022, 03:06:55 PM »
Rick Palacios of John Burns Real Estate Consulting has some interesting observations from our local home builders:


Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2751
  • -Received: 4075
  • Posts: 23712
  • 3CWG
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #991 on: May 11, 2022, 05:44:42 PM »
I would hope new home demand would cool off... it's so expensive now they are even taking bids like resale.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

Offline Cares

  • Real Estate Broker & Mortgage Loan Originator
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 14
  • -Received: 264
  • Posts: 1368
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #992 on: May 12, 2022, 09:06:51 AM »
I would hope new home demand would cool off... it's so expensive now they are even taking bids like resale.

Many are moving to a hybrid model of half bid and half set price...I don't know why though.

Offline CalBears96

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 29
  • -Received: 123
  • Posts: 1113
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #993 on: May 12, 2022, 10:30:30 AM »
I would hope new home demand would cool off... it's so expensive now they are even taking bids like resale.

Many are moving to a hybrid model of half bid and half set price...I don't know why though.

They set a price and then it's a blind best offer. The Oaks at Portola Hills has been doing this since October.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 785
  • -Received: 502
  • Posts: 2503
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #994 on: May 18, 2022, 11:57:19 AM »
Here's the perspective from an Orange County economist:


Offline AccidentalAnalytics

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2
  • -Received: 8
  • Posts: 38
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #995 on: Yesterday at 10:00:32 AM »
LL, can you use standard font size and format please?  Why do you feel the need to bold your heading and make your font bigger.

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2751
  • -Received: 4075
  • Posts: 23712
  • 3CWG
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #996 on: Yesterday at 02:44:10 PM »
LL, can you use standard font size and format please?  Why do you feel the need to bold your heading and make your font bigger.



Purple font, however, has the opposite effect.

Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 785
  • -Received: 502
  • Posts: 2503
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #997 on: Yesterday at 03:14:18 PM »
Wow... I did not expect a mainstream news source to declare this so quickly.  Market psychology is changing fast.

The Atlantic: The U.S. Housing Market Has Peaked

I count at least three signs that the national housing market is about to experience a significant slowdown.

First, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation, mortgage rates are soaring.

Second, the number of homes for sale—a.k.a. housing inventory—is finally perking up after plunging to all-time lows during the pandemic.

In the hottest markets, such as California and Colorado, the number of available homes is increasing significantly faster than the national average, according to Altos Research, while the share of new listings going into contract “immediately” (meaning within days, or even hours) is declining quickly.

Google searches for homes for sale are falling in major cities, including Boston and Los Angeles. Redfin agents in California say that showings and offers are down double digits since last year.


https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/05/housing-market-slowing-down-recession/629901/

Online TestingIrvine

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1
  • -Received: 15
  • Posts: 85
Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
« Reply #998 on: Yesterday at 09:52:15 PM »
Thanks Captain Obvious.  Lol

“The market is slowing down, I’m the only one who predicted this” - Liar Loan

Offline zubs

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 85
  • -Received: 520
  • Posts: 2505
Well as someone said earlier.
It's the brave forecaster who says housing will go up another 10% from here.

It's easy to forecast a down turn when housing has gone up 30% since 2019.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 785
  • -Received: 502
  • Posts: 2503
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Thanks Captain Obvious.  Lol

“The market is slowing down, I’m the only one who predicted this” - Liar Loan

I've never made a prediction that housing would "slow down".  If that's what you believe the extent of the damage will be, then you are deluding yourself, not unlike many others here.

Well as someone said earlier.
It's the brave forecaster who says housing will go up another 10% from here.

It's easy to forecast a down turn when housing has gone up 30% since 2019.

I mean not that I disagree, but why aren't more people forecasting a downturn then?  Mark Zandi seems to be the boldest public prognosticator and he's only calling for a 5-10% downturn in select markets. 

The posters on TalkIrvine, for the most part, are in complete denial.  Several have been taking their frustrations out on me (the second stage of grief).

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Kenkoko

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 193
  • -Received: 301
  • Posts: 1035
Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 385
  • -Received: 331
  • Posts: 2432
Noooooooooo, you mean it.doesn’t go up FOEVAR?


I thought, housing / real estate, and stonks only goes up. No one ever told me it could go down. Whowoulddaknow. :) :) :)

Oh yes, it only goes up when the FED willing to buy anything and everything. :) :) :) And our government money helicopter is now stop flying, sky high values get realities check.


Offline CalBears96

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 29
  • -Received: 123
  • Posts: 1113
Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

You know that's not true. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, on TI is predicting that housing price is peaking this summer and will start flattening out. Really, anyone who thinks that housing price will keep continuing to climb beyond this year is a fool. Or maybe a brave forecaster, as zubs puts it.  ;D

What was met with hostility is a certain fool who refused to admit he was wrong about Irvine housing and has pretty much been posting junk.

Like TestingIrvine said, Captain Obvious.

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline zubs

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 85
  • -Received: 520
  • Posts: 2505
Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

You think bears get trounced here because you joined Talkirvine late.

We were originally a bear board and talked all kinds of bearish shit from 2007 to 2013....
TI changed to be more bullish because the market actually changed and we were not married to being negative forever.
You assume too much.


 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2022, SimplePortal