Is Talega near bottom?

I've been monitoring the sales at Talega and it seems like prices are holding steady at about $220 PSF. Has this community bottomed early than the rest of Orange County due to all the foreclourses and short sales?

Probably not. There is a lot of Alt-A in Talega, so many of their toxic loans have not blown up yet. Plus, this recession will change the psychology, so people will not be so quick to stretch themselves with short-term ARMs to buy overpriced property in the future.

I have posted on Talega many times. I do not see a bottom with:



Unemployment at 8%+

Outstanding Alt A - Option ARM'S

Tightened Credit above conforming

Prices above rental parity



Prices at or around $150.00 psf should be close to rental parity for many of the homes. At the peak, most of the tracts were selling at $400 psf (or close to it - Carayes was nearly $600 !!) - so at $220 you are about 45% off. Another $70.00 psf is only an additional 17.5 % off of the high. $150.00 psf would also be near the 2001 pricing.

I don thin so...



<strong>Nov 06, 2008 Price Changed $649,0</strong>00 -- SoCalMLS #S540625

Oct 20, 2008 Relisted -- -- SoCalMLS #S540625

Sep 26, 2008 Off Redfin -- -- SoCalMLS #S540625

Sep 14, 2008 Relisted -- -- SoCalMLS #S540625

Sep 14, 2008 Off Redfin -- -- SoCalMLS #S540625

Aug 21, 2008 Price Changed $750,000 -- SoCalMLS #S540625

Aug 21, 2008 Price Changed $699,000 -- SoCalMLS #S540625

Jul 18, 2008 Listed $1,100,000 -- SoCalMLS #S540625

<strong>Dec 10, 2004 Sold $1,027,500 </strong>-- Public Records





thanks sooctracker<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Clemente/7-Via-Zamora-92673/home/5933354">Talega</a>

My biggest Craigslist home theater/compact disc score was four houses down from the above property.



The $650K price is a short sale feeler and not indicicative of any market floor.



Personally, I find Talega to be about as appealing as Temecula. The commute where my wife works is about the same. That box would sell in Temecula for $120K.

I don't know Vas, this place has been listed for 138 days as low as 699 with NO bites. I bet if you walked in with cash in hand they might take that price.



"The current, original owners bought from Standard Pacific in 2004 for $1,027,500 using 80% financing and $205,800 down. About 11 months later, two loans from Wells Fargo appeared: a $141,580 second loan and a $57,400 third from Wells Fargo. Total amount of loans assuming all the cash was taken is $1,020,700 - essentially 100% of the purchase price."

I can think of a bunch of condos of the same vintage in Irvine I'd rather live in that that dump - except the condos would cost less, the commute would be better, and the schools would be a ton better. And they would be a $250K discount over this property. I wouldn't go so far as to move into that shithole Villages of Columbus, but I'd seriously consider just about any other alternative.



The Talega development is everything that is wrong with SoCal, the Real Estate bubble, loose lending, 'keeping up with the jones', and rampant materialism all wrapped up in one convienent little package.

[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1228361789]My biggest Craigslist home theater/compact disc score was four houses down from the above property.



The $650K price is a short sale feeler and not indicicative of any market floor.



Personally, I find Talega to be about as appealing as Temecula. The commute where my wife works is about the same. That box would sell in Temecula for $120K.</blockquote>


Come on, Temecula isn't THAT bad...$49/sqft lol. Maybe Menifee, Hemet, Wildomar, Winchester...those areas are hovering around $80-$90/sqft but only really distressed properties are below $100/sqft in Temecula. Some people actually *like* living in Temecula and it isn't nearly the foreclosure epicenter it has been made out to be. I wouldn't personally lump Temecula/Murrieta in with the rest of the surrounding cities. There was a solid population here before the bubble and many folks here actually own *land*, not just generic tract homes. The median income is hovering between $70-80k/yr (ok, we can reduce some for the realtors, etc) but the median home price is right around 3x the median income. Sure the commute might be killer but what most Temecula/Murrieta bashers don't realize:



1. Large number of commuters to North San Diego, Central San Diego (30-40 mins)

2. Marine families - commute to Camp Pendleton is about 25 mins

3. Lots of commuter shuttles and buses into San Diego, LA

4. Folks that work at home (myself and most of my friends)

5. Abbot/Pechanga/Pala employees



The commute to North County is about the same (maybe a bit longer) than someone would make from San Clemente or Ladera to Irvine. (Taking into account traffic on the 5 is much heavier than traffic on the 15 down into North County).



I was surprised to find that only about 40% of residents commute OUT of Temecula for their jobs. Despite what you see passing through, we have a fair number of businesses and business parks in the foothills out here. Are they paying six-figures+? Probably not, but everything is much cheaper here also.



Most folks from OC think of Temecula as a far flung exurb from OC but we're pretty evenly split between commuters to San Diego, Riverside and Orange County. While I agree it is not ideal for everyone (and I'm even looking at Ladera Ranch to move soon) it is only fair to acknowledge that the city has a bit of substance.



/now ready for all the flames!

Commuting from the IE was a viable option BEFORE gas prices hit $4.50 per gallon. All those home prices savings got wiped out on the asphalt of the 91.



Now that gas is back down to 2005 levels... maybe home prices there will go up.



Or maybe not.

[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228455861]Commuting from the IE was a viable option BEFORE gas prices hit $4.50 per gallon. All those home prices savings got wiped out on the asphalt of the 91.



Now that gas is back down to 2005 levels... maybe home prices there will go up.



Or maybe not.</blockquote>


Prices won't go back up until we see greater inflation, job and wage growth. They aren't declining very much now (we peaked much earlier than OC and have been crashing for a while...a lot of places are down 50-65%).

<blockquote>



NoVas wrote:



The Talega development is everything that is wrong with SoCal, the Real Estate bubble, loose lending, 'keeping up with the jones', and rampant materialism all wrapped up in one convienent little package.</blockquote>


[Enthusiasm]



I'LL TAKE IT!



[/Enthusiasm]



-bix

[quote author="eclipxe" date=1228443374]





Most folks from OC think of Temecula as a far flung exurb from OC but we're pretty evenly split between commuters to San Diego, Riverside and Orange County. While I agree it is not ideal for everyone (and I'm even looking at Ladera Ranch to move soon) it is only fair to acknowledge that the city has a bit of substance.



/now ready for all the flames!</blockquote>


I'd rather live in Temecula than Ladera. The price doesn't have anything to do with it.



Neither are particularly attractive because sitting my hot little ass in commuter traffic is not something I relish or enjoy.



IMO Ladera should trade about equal/sf to Temecula, not at a premium of 3x or whatever nonsense the math works out to today.

But Ladera is South OC... and "steps" from the beach.... oh wait... that's Talega.



I get all my South OC overpriced neighborhoods mixed up (as if Irvine isn't overpriced... hehe).

[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1228467447]But Ladera is South OC... and "steps" from the beach.... oh wait... that's Talega.



I get all my South OC overpriced neighborhoods mixed up (as if Irvine isn't overpriced... hehe).</blockquote>


Believe it or not, in this case, that's my excuse too! They do all look/sound/smell the same.



Ladera's saving grace is one hour of seat time per day from Temecula or Talega.

First post. Yeah buddy! IHB is freakin' amazing for this future first time buyer. Thanks y'all for the input.



So, going back to the initial post regarding Talega prices continuing to decline. My wife and I currently reside in Aliso Viejo and would love to stay here, however, it seems like we can get a lot more for our money around the 2,100 sq. ft size in Talega than in AV. I understand the arguments about proximity to employment, but is that really the main cause? I only ask because AV is a fairly new city itself. Prices around the area of Plateau and Aliso Viejo Pkwy are still easily at $340+ sqf compared to $240 or so in Talega.



I am unexperienced in housing, but are people in AV just that more stubborn on the value of their homes? Or is AV truly going to stay that much higher than Talega long term? It seems that the true underlying financial principles would not be that different between the two cities. Residents in both areas are in essentially the same employment centers, tax brackets, and overall demographics (younger starter families). Did the flippers and investors really kill Talega that much more? If the bottom for Talega is around $150 sq/ft, then fundamentally I would be shocked if AV wasn't at least within 15% of that price which would bring it down to $172.50.



Thanks in advance for your input. This has to be one of the best housing forums in the nation.

i suspect that the primary difference is the age of the communities.



much of AV was purchased prior to 2004, so and larger percentage of the householders can afford their mortgage (less the more recent buyers and heloc abusers, who may total 30-50%). For this reason, the distressed properties will take longer to drive the market down. On the minus side, Talega is probably nicer than AV.



much of Talega was purchased during the height of the bubble, and so a huge percentage of these householders are going to lose. Talega will probably find bottom sooner than AV, i'm guessing. Also, I suspect that the house size was inflated more in Talega (more sf/house), so the Talega price/sf may drop more than the smaller AV houses.



longwinded way of saying that i would bet that they reach comparable levels, talega faster than AV

The proposed road through Talega sure isn't going to help property values:



It also vows to ?push forward on a solution that will provide significant traffic relief while protecting Southern California?s economy.? TCA spokesperson Lisa Telles said they?re pulling data on one of six alternative routes that the document identifies: the Central Corridor-Avenida La Pata. La Pata, off Ortega Highway in San Juan Capistrano, ends near San Juan Hills High School and picks up again in San Clemente near Avenida Vista Hermosa. ?We?re compiling information on that alternative,? said Telles, who notes TCA didn?t expect that element. ?[That route] was considered not feasible early on. The goal is to help relieve traffic on Interstate 5, and it doesn?t meet that criteria.? The TCA statement said the La Pata route would ?devastate the Talega community, bisecting this new neighborhood and taking more than 200 homes at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and incalculable human costs.?



San Clemente Mayor Pro Tem Jim Dahl, who has served on the board of directors for TCA since 1996, called the decision mind-boggling. ?The biggest disappointment is the Secretary of Commerce liked other alternative routes that would dump into Talega and that would take out homes,? he said. ?I don?t know the exact route, but if it dumps into Talega, I can?t imagine the impacts on the community. It would be devastating. Then to dump all of that traffic on [Avenida] Pico and [Avenida Vista] Hermosa. It wouldn?t provide any traffic relief for San Clemente at all.?

[quote author="jhammons01" date=1230035841][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1228397805]I can think of a bunch of condos of the same vintage in Irvine I'd rather live in that that dump - except the condos would cost less, the commute would be better, and the schools would be a ton better. And they would be a $250K discount over this property. I wouldn't go so far as to move into that shithole Villages of Columbus, but I'd seriously consider just about any other alternative.



The Talega development is everything that is wrong with SoCal, the Real Estate bubble, loose lending, 'keeping up with the jones', and rampant materialism all wrapped up in one convienent little package.</blockquote>
Wow, I don't have an opinion, but this post confuses me. I thought that area was supposed to be nice. Someone explain it to the slow guy.</blockquote>


What part confuses you (other than the Villages of Columbus is a shithole)?

[quote author="pickandsave" date=1230558012]The proposed road through Talega sure isn't going to help property values</blockquote>


Like hell it won't! It makes the commute a ton better! And at six bucks a trip, it'll knock out the riff raff.

Here we go:





<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Clemente/20-Corte-El-Brazo-92673/home/5961246">20 Corte El Brazo</a>





A new low PSF for a premium view lot? Could Talega actually hit $150/SF?