REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months.

freedomCM_IHB

freedomCM_IHB

New member
Looks as if the market is already in line to get hammered with REOs.



Last month, the banks took back 22k houses in CA, and managed to sell 11k



but MrMortgage reports



<blockquote>VERY IMPORTANT - Keep in mind that the 22,324 homes that the lenders took back in April were from Notices-of-Default from approx Dec, when there were 33k. In Jan, Feb, March and April there were 38,600, 37,300, 42,700 and 44,100 NOD?s respectively and in the past few months we have seen an increase to about 70% make it from NOD all the way to REO. This means that over the next few months banks will take back up to 31k homes per month, so sales better really pick up or the bank REO inventory will just get worse.</blockquote>
<a href="http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/">http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/</a>



Will the market be able to sell this much inventory? How much will this hammer prices?
 
Just like McDonald's, I'm lovin' it!





In 2005, I arrived with simple aspirations of buying just a primary residence, but it appears the market will exceed my expectations and allow me to pick up a few rentals as well.



"Life is but a beach chair".
 
and it looks as if the supply of REOs will only keep growing.



from housingwire:

The number of troubled Alt-A borrowers in the 2007 vintage rose an eye-popping 26.5 percent from March to April alone, nearly reaching 17 percent of loan volume.



The 2007 vintage isn?t the only Alt-A vintage facing problems, of course: 19.3 percent of borrowers with loans originated in 2006 were more than 60 days delinquent at the end of April, a jump of nearly 10 percent from March.



<img src="http://www.housingwire.com/wp-content/uploads/manual/altaarm_resets_may2008.gif" alt="" />
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1212038820]graph, is that your OC data/chart, or off another site?</blockquote>


That is my chart. It is a combo of DataQuick and another data source, but for the most part it is in line with the numbers I have seen from all the other data sources.
 
<strong>It looks like the prime stuff is starting to move down the pike into REO land</strong>



courtesy NYTimes





<img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/06/01/business/0601-sbn-TOWN.gif" alt="" />











<strong>and look at how nicely crispy SoCal is! If it were a chicken, I would pull it off the BBQ</strong>
 
I was actually buying in to the ideas of some of the pumpers lately. I was worried that they would be right, and that things would turn around in late 2008.



Happily, it looks like my late-2009 planned purchase is coming along nicely... :)
 
[quote author="Strom" date=1212477959]I was actually buying in to the ideas of some of the pumpers lately. I was worried that they would be right, and that things would turn around in late 2008.



Happily, it looks like my late-2009 planned purchase is coming along nicely... :)</blockquote>




bottom won't be here for quite awhile. i am hoping end of 2009 also but from what i been reading here and nyfeds website.... it seems like the alt a is next up in line and that is even a bigger mess then the subprime. if that is true.... i would guess december 21 2012........... end of days......... hahahhahaaaaa i guess the mayan knew something that we don't and they predicted this a looooooooooooooong time ago.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1212493291]Nice, jb. Worked a reference to the Mayan long count into a housing thread. Well played, sir.</blockquote>


Oh..that's right, that's about the time the Mayan linear Calender ends, right?

Seeing as we go by our cyclical Calender will we be ok ? If I remember correctly, the Mayan predicted the end for Dec 12th 2012, that's a Wednesday, hump Day!!



Imagine, the world is gonna end on hump day...go figure.



I got it wrong as usual <a href="http://www.december212012.com/">212012</a>
 
[quote author="PeterUK" date=1212504129][quote author="skek" date=1212493291]Nice, jb. Worked a reference to the Mayan long count into a housing thread. Well played, sir.</blockquote>


Oh..that's right, that's about the time the Mayan linear Calender ends, right?

Seeing as we go by our cyclical Calender will we be ok ? If I remember correctly, the Mayan predicted the end for Dec 12th 2012, that's a Wednesday, hump Day!!



Imagine, the world is gonna end on hump day...go figure.



I got it wrong as usual <a href="http://www.december212012.com/">212012</a></blockquote>


Personally, I roll with the Canadian calendar, just for the exchange rate.
 
The prime/alt-a crisis is just beginning, as predicted.



People cannot yet fully grasp the impact of this - these loans are 90% of all existing. Look at what has happened the last 2 years with JUST the subprime (10% of loans) defaults. Times by 10, and put them in EVERY CITY.



Doom.
 
master is on the da money...



this was in today's WSJ



Housing Pain Hits Prime Borrowers

Foreclosures Increase

As Troubles Worsen

Outside of Subprime

By RUTH SIMON

June 6, 2008; Page A5



Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures continued to surpass record levels in the first quarter, as the prolonged decline in home prices and shifting economic conditions trapped a growing number of prime borrowers.



Delinquencies and foreclosures increased at the fastest pace for borrowers with prime adjustable-rate mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, though borrowers with subprime ARMs still account for the largest share of troubled loans. The number of new prime ARM foreclosures increased by 29,000 to 117,000 in the first quarter, while the number of new subprime ARM foreclosures increased by 20,000 to 195,000. This is the first time prime foreclosures have grown faster than subprime foreclosures, the MBA said.



<img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-AQ747_FORECL_20080605185410.gif" alt="" />



The increase in delinquencies has been highest in states where there has been a lot of overbuilding, said Jay Brinkmann, the MBA's vice president for research and economics. New subdivisions in those states have seen the biggest price drops, he said, as builders have cut prices to reduce inventories. That has made it more difficult for borrowers in the same or nearby subdivisions to sell or refinance if they get into trouble. About 10% of the homes built after 2000 are now vacant, according to the Census Bureau, compared with roughly 2% of homes built earlier.



Nationwide, roughly 1.3 million homes were in foreclosure at the end of the first quarter, according to the MBA. The foreclosure rate increased by 0.43 percentage point in the first quarter to 2.47% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the number of loans that were at least 30 days past due climbed by 0.53 percentage point to 6.35%.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1212038405]Ah... yes... here is some chart love for OC. It looks like I will need to update the amount for the foreclosure number to be higher than 2500, eh that might be next quarter. </blockquote>


Graph, I thought Lansner blog data from dataquick had sales at just over 2,000 in April and May, yet your graph is at 500 or so. What am I missing?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top