Newport Coast

Who are these delusional people kidding?...



While most, if not all of Newport Coast is grossly overpriced currently (even though prices have been coming down, just not as much in other housing markets) lets take 1 community as an example and pick it apart. Named "The Summit", this is a gated development of approximately 150 or so townhomes ranging in size from 1,200 - 1,900 sq.ft. approximately. When built in 1994, these condos were basically going anywhere from $200k-$300k.



Here are the number of home sales in The Summit according to the MLS for the following years:

2003 - 18

2004 - 18

2005 - 12

2006 - 15

2007 - 5

2008(up to 3/27/2008) - 0



Um....5 sales in the entire year for 2007? Pathetic. 0 Sales so far this year? Even more pathetic. We are in a recession, or atleast barely floating above one (as if the affluent don't read the newspapers and understand what is going on with our economy), yet 95% of the 180 or so active properties for sale in all of NC are so grossly overpriced, its no wonder home sales are suffering, and will continue to suffer until the 95% of these sellers adjust asking prices by 10-15% NOW. And even by adjusting those asking prices 10-15% its still a buyers market to make an offer 10-15% under that number.





2007 was anything but a positive year for overall housing. March 2007, NC had a total of 22 sales. March 2008 (and we have few days left) so far has 6, a 72% decrease in sales. I expect prices in NC to drop further this year and into 2009, just like the rest of Orange County, and California for that matter.



Going back to The Summit, here is a look at the total days on the market count for homes (with their $/Sq.ft. next to them respectively). Mind you this is days on the market. I don't know about you, but having your house on the market 200, 300, or more days is not normal, and you can question if that's really even called "selling your home". What do you call it?



216 ($560)

168 ($538)

304 ($533)

255 ($509)

218 ($643)

76 ($578)

37 ($645)



The latest home to come on the market in The Summit has been on the market for 37 days. This home is a 2 Bed, 2 Bath 1,200 square foot condo being offered at $775K. Hello???!!! $775K! a 2 Bed condo for almost $800k? Mr.Mrs. Seller, put the crack pipe down. Drugs are bad for you! If this home wants to sell it needs to be offered between $620K-$650K with tremendous hopes that a buyer would be willing to spend $600k right now in this market.



Well the good news is if your luxury home is priced to sell (or atleast entertain offers) it should sell. Other than that, plan to have it sit 200,300,400,500, 600 days on the market while you chase the market down with your delusional asking prices. Prices will come down more than they already have, just takes a little longer than everywhere else.

Yeah, I mentioned this unit a while back. We live in this community and it is not even worth 600K because the garage is detached from the unit. You have to walk to the other side of the fourplex to access your garage. Pretty crazy...other than that the community is great.

I wonder what makes people hold on harder to unreasonable asking prices. . .





the need (I need to get this price, the psychological barrier of listing for less than one bought a place for) or





the entitlement (of living in Newport Coast or any other really expensive area and believing dropping your price would be "below" you).

<p>alot of people in newport do very much feel a sense of entitlement. Its a nice place to live. I'd much rather live a little more closer to earth though....</p>

<p>anyways good luck</p>

<p>-bix</p>

<p>newportnaturalmom,</p>

<p>Do you live in a fourplex? If the "fourplex" is a common structure, can you hear your neighbor play the stereo, TV, or go to the bathroom?</p>

<p>I am curious to know what it is like to live in attached housing, as there seems to be a lot of it.</p>

<p>Thanks.</p>

Major Schadenfreude: some detached housing is better than others. There is another community in Newport Coast called "Altezza". Pricier homes, but they are setup as townhomes on single loaded streets and have views. Though both developments have the potential of having someone live above or below you, Altezza has a little more of an open feeling to it, inside and out. At The Summit, I would venture to say most definitely yes you could hear a neighbors stereo if played loud enough, though the demographic is not a big party scene, atleast from what i've seen. Both communities are very nice and each have their pros and cons.



biscuitninja: No doubt I agree. However, there comes a point to where if you are serious about selling your home, be serious. If not, why not just enjoy what you have, ya know?



Irvinesoulbrother: Two types of sellers, those that have to sell and those that want to sell. Unfortunately a majority of current listings in NC would fall into the 'want' to sell category. However, I think this possibly could change(later this year and into 09) if neighbors begin to pick up a pattern of particular closing prices in their neighborhoods, with the exception of a select few. Meaning if housing price drops, they do 1 of 3 things. compete with the market and keep dropping the price till it sells, take it off the market, or rent it out. All too many times I've seen or atleast heard about sellers of homes in NC turning down offers in the beginning of the house being on the market only to have the house still on the market at a price thousands of dollars less than the offer, that right there is called greed, maybe ignorance too, or both.



newportnatuarlmom: That's one thing that bugged me too, some particular units (I think its only the 1,200 sq.ft. units?) having the detached garages, atleast some of them i'm not sure if all of them have this. Still, I'd live there, just for the right price of course. Seeing some people pay $800k+ (and some now defaulting) on a 2 bed 1,200 sq.ft. condo back in the hay days just makes me cringe)



patience, time will tell

Major,





The quality of the attached housing depends on when it was built and by whom. In a 1980's condo, the walls were thin. In a circa 2000+ condo by a reputable builder, the walls are not shared and there is space between them for sound proofing, as well as thick floors for any over/unders. I have been in places where you hear everything, and in others where you hear nothing.

<p>Major,</p>

<p>As Eval mentioned, in most newer condo/townhomes. The shared walls are not 1 single wall. Imagine 2 walls with space in between. Although, it's not 100% sound proof. Noise are muffled. It's bearable.</p>

<p>Sell, </p>

<p> I am the type of person you mentioned. I do not mess around, when i go forward it is a decision I have already though about for a long time and devoted much time/analysis/information. Very few times will I grow attached to a property and usually, its because of a financial attachment, not emotional. </p>

<p> </p>

<p>anyways good luck</p>

<p>-bix</p>

.

<p>Skek,</p>

<p> Yep I agree, but I think alot of those people have bought, again, far beyond what they can afford (which is quite alot..).</p>

<p>-bix</p>

Cal Pac's Positano in Westpark and Sancerre in Newport Ridge are essentially the same product, yet the NC homes sell for $300K to $400K more, which is up to 60% higher.

<p>"Well the good news is if your luxury home is priced to sell (or atleast entertain offers) it should sell"</p>

<p>I don't think 2bd/2ba, 1200sf townhomes qualify as "luxury" homes in any community. That's like saying those Infiniti G20s or the Porsche 914s were "luxury" cars. Just because it's made by a luxury company (or is in a luxury community) doe not mean they are luxury. But I'm sure the people who live in them thinks so.</p>

.

Newport Coast does currently have the 2nd lowest % of distressed active inventory, behind only Laguna Woods. The % is substantially lower than the OC average and is going to be one factor in the pricing.

A lot of good feedback here.



Newport Coast has a lot of new money floating around. Home appreciation skyrocketed during the 2003-2006 years in Newport Coast. 2004 was an amazing year, huge double digit apprecation rates in all communities. NC itself is only about 13/14 years old(developed in the mid 90's), and was not annexed to Newport Beach until 2002.



Lots of different reasons why I see sellers selling in Newport Coast right now:

- Trade up

- Trade down (empty nesters)

- Job Relocation

- Divorce/Family/Money issues

- If some naive buyer will come pay $100k,$350k,$500k(or another number) more than the house is worth



Granted NC is still one of the lowest areas in terms of defaults/foreclosures, but it is happening. NC is a great place to live. Just because you live in a nice area doesn't mean you can command any asking price you want. And until these naive sellers realize this (are they even naive or are they smarter than I think?) homes will continue to sit and sit on the market.



I get my notice of defaults (nod's) and notice of trustees sales (not's) from my title company daily and did have a Pacific Ridge home (belcara) come up on default today. Pacific Ridge, that whole development was built during the top of the housing market, tough market up there if you think you're going to be a flipper right now versus 2 years ago. The early ones who sold (prior to 2006) made out 'okay' or 'good', anyone selling their house in there now is going to take a bath. But hey, sell low buy low right?(provided its in the same area)



Today's default example in Pacific Ridge, a Belcara home

- 2nd owner of this home

- Original owner pays somewhere around $1.5/$1.6 in early 2005

- Original owner sells to new owner on 9/10/2006 (top of the housing market in NC) for $2,140,000

- 2nd owner goes and lists the home at $2.8m. $2.8m! I laughed for a good hard two minutes when I originally saw this house listed in MLS.

- 2nd owner has been on the market 150 days of today trying to sell his home

- today, notice of default appears on the 2nd owner in the amount of $50k



This 2nd owner goes and buys at the top of the housing market, and thinks his home is suddenly worth $640K more?! please



If this greedy headed seller wasn't so naive from the beginning he could have listed his house for $2.3m and prayed to God that he got an offer near what he paid or somewhere around $2.0m Now if he does truly have to sell he's going to have to implement a shortsale on his home since his $2,031,000 loan on the home is more than the house is now worth.



2nd owner gets a loan for $2,031,000 with a purchase price of $2,140,000. That's an LTV of 95% on a $2.0m loan, crazy! and i'm seeing this type of garbage all over NC.



That home will sell for $1.7/$1.8, just a little bit more than what the original owners paid back in 2005.



Pricing in NC is back to 2004 and 2005 levels, depending on the communities. The 3 custom Pelican communities you could say are a little bit of an exception to the rule.

Bk, care to weigh in on Newport Coast?

I heard from an old Indian friend that back in the day the Indians who lived in the Newport Coast area would thumb their noses at the Indians who lived in the Bolsa Chica-Brightwater area. Just what I heard...

<p>Major, </p>

<p> I get people who thumb there noses at me ALL day. Only after they find out my background do they really change there attitude. But only just a little.</p>

<p>But i have also noticed that with the Indian attitude comes the Cast system they have attached. Almost like blue blood money and all that.</p>

<p>-bix</p>

Oh man...I meant American Indians. You know, like even centuries ago the ones that lived (and are now/were buried) at NC thought themselves a little better than those who lived (and are now/were buried) at the swampy Brightwater area.