Where is the Next Emerging RE market in SoCal?
- Thread starter panda
- Start date
panda
Well-known member
Since my early 20s, I've read a lot of books regarding real estate investing, and many experts say it is best to buy a smaller home in a large lot than to buy a large home in a small lot for the best long term appreciation. I now realize that If i were to buy a home in Irvine today it would only be for my primary residence and not for investments. I agree with BKshopr that the margins are no longer there and days of a smaller SFR in a big lot is long gone in Irvine. The people who had the foresight to invest in Irvine in the 90's has profited handsomely and today I see Irvine as an emerged city where these investing opportunities and margins are long gone. I just can't see homes like Montecito and Los Arboles doubling in value, yet alone trading over a $1 million in ten years.
graceomalley
New member
I bought in Irvine during that era. Mahogany was sold out in less than a year and not listed per 1997 paper.
panda
Well-known member
[quote author="frank69m"]Wow panda. For a person who doesn't live in the state, you must really love this area. Maybe I'll keep my 2010 woodbury collection brochures and when Carmel is selling for 3 million 15 years from now, I'll look back and laugh.[/quote]
lol. i already picked up five 2010 woodbury collection books so i can hold them for 10 years and sell them as a collector's item <!-- s
--><!-- s -->
lol. i already picked up five 2010 woodbury collection books so i can hold them for 10 years and sell them as a collector's item <!-- s
--><!-- s -->graceomalley
New member
[quote author="Panda "]Since my early 20s, I've read a lot of books regarding real estate investing, and many experts say it is best to buy a smaller home in a large lot than to buy a large home in a small lot for the best long term appreciation. I now realize that If i were to buy a home in Irvine today it would only be for my primary residence and not for investments. I agree with BKshopr that the margins are no longer there and days of a smaller SFR in a big lot is long gone in Irvine. The people who had the foresight to invest in Irvine in the 90's has profited handsomely and today I see Irvine as an emerged city where these investing opportunities and margins are long gone. I just can't see homes like Montecito and Los Arboles doubling in value, yet alone trading over a $1 million in ten years. [/quote]
Thank you Panda! The mid 90's was the era of investment and smart investors stopped when the margin and lot size began to diminish.
Lot size, house width, 3 car garages, single story and front yard were elements I advise my friends to focus on during the 90's because I could see the future of developments 15 years ahead would no longer having them. Rosegate and Mahogany were ideal projects.
I urged friends to buy Ivywood, Wisteria, San Simeon and Aldea when it first came out as rental investment properties. They were all below $300k. Hold on to them and send future kids to Irvine schools.
Thank you Panda! The mid 90's was the era of investment and smart investors stopped when the margin and lot size began to diminish.
Lot size, house width, 3 car garages, single story and front yard were elements I advise my friends to focus on during the 90's because I could see the future of developments 15 years ahead would no longer having them. Rosegate and Mahogany were ideal projects.
I urged friends to buy Ivywood, Wisteria, San Simeon and Aldea when it first came out as rental investment properties. They were all below $300k. Hold on to them and send future kids to Irvine schools.
roundcorners
New member
P, thanks for bringing up those old brochures, like I said before, I remember house being in that range... that is how prices should be... talk about hyper-inflation, it is already happening with housing...
the very sad truth is... for people who 1) didn't participate in the great housing bubble, 2) Don't have FCB $$, 3) Average (1/2 for us) single income-households, first time buyers have been forever priced out of the market, with current prices...
the very sad truth is... for people who 1) didn't participate in the great housing bubble, 2) Don't have FCB $$, 3) Average (1/2 for us) single income-households, first time buyers have been forever priced out of the market, with current prices...
A
Anonymous
Guest
Funny you post that 1997 new home directory, Panda. I was just looking at a new listing for a La Montana in Tustin Ranch. Sold new in Nov 1997 for $321k (the new home brochure at that time says "high $200's"). Here it is today, listed for $849k. That said, I'd pay $850k in a heartbeat for this as opposed to $850k for an optioned up Montecito --- which is about the same *interior* sq ft. Not so much the same on the exterior.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/10401-Prather-Ln-92782/home/4775436
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/10401-Prather-Ln-92782/home/4775436
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
And AZDave thinks we'll get back to 1999 pricing... puh-shaw.
The question here is... does anyone have brochures for 1989 new homes so we can see how far they dropped from peak to trough?
Anyone?
The question here is... does anyone have brochures for 1989 new homes so we can see how far they dropped from peak to trough?
Anyone?
graceomalley
New member
This house has 25 steps up to the front door instead 2.5 steps for Montecito. No comparison between front yard appeal, side yards and back yard.
I would choose this one over Montecito but after analyzing the location carefully I have the following reservations:
Kids will not automatically advance to Harvard and Yale after HS. Your kids are doomed in the TUSD. No future and prison life ahead. This is the ghetto 714 side of Irvine, and 2 hours further from 405.
This is the high crime area of Irvine.
Bank Robbery
Slashed girl friend's throat
liquor thieves
White pervert preying on Chinese women using LV wallet as lure
I would choose this one over Montecito but after analyzing the location carefully I have the following reservations:
Kids will not automatically advance to Harvard and Yale after HS. Your kids are doomed in the TUSD. No future and prison life ahead. This is the ghetto 714 side of Irvine, and 2 hours further from 405.
This is the high crime area of Irvine.
Bank Robbery
Slashed girl friend's throat
liquor thieves
White pervert preying on Chinese women using LV wallet as lure
A
Anonymous
Guest
[quote author="graceomalley"]
Bank Robbery
Slashed girl friend's throat
liquor thieves
White pervert preying on Chinese women using LV wallet as lure
[/quote]
For the record, she bought me that wallet. But I'm not going to deny I like it.
<!-- s --><!-- s -->
Bank Robbery
Slashed girl friend's throat
liquor thieves
White pervert preying on Chinese women using LV wallet as lure
[/quote]
For the record, she bought me that wallet. But I'm not going to deny I like it.
<!-- s
--><!-- s -->graceomalley
New member
[quote author="ck"]
[quote author="graceomalley"]
Bank Robbery
Slashed girl friend's throat
liquor thieves
White pervert preying on Chinese women using LV wallet as lure
[/quote]
For the record, she bought me that wallet. But I'm not going to deny I like it.
<!-- s --><!-- s -->[/quote]
Revised to Chinese preying on White guys using LV wallet as a lure.
[quote author="graceomalley"]
Bank Robbery
Slashed girl friend's throat
liquor thieves
White pervert preying on Chinese women using LV wallet as lure
[/quote]
For the record, she bought me that wallet. But I'm not going to deny I like it.
<!-- s
--><!-- s -->[/quote]Revised to Chinese preying on White guys using LV wallet as a lure.
A
Anonymous
Guest
[quote author="Panda "]I got one PM inquiry asking about the demographics of Duluth, GA and why i think this area will be a hot emerging area (Irvine 1997) in the next 5-10 years.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2009/snapshots/PL1374936.html
Swanee, which is a neighboring city of Duluth is one step below Duluth in city status. Think of Duluth as Irvine and Swanee as Aliso Viejo. You can see that the job growth is 81.41% from the past 8 years compared to 21% in Irvine. Add to that a 88% growth of upper middle class Korean and Chinese population in this area has the right formula in becoming the next hot emerging area.
[/quote]
Have you spent a lot of time there, Panda? Is Duluth really similar to Irvine? Or maybe the question should be --- how is Gwinnett County compared to Orange County? When I was in the military one of my team members was from Gwinnett Cty, GA. He was a REAL redneck, like you see in movies. I can remember him talking about neighboring Forsyth County as well -- which the locals affectionately referred to as "For South" county.
When I look at the demographics of Duluth --- particularly as it relates to Asians --- while Duluth seems to have a higher Asian % than the Atlanta area as a whole, it is nowehere near what you find in Irvine, or Orange County for that matter. So when when you exit the Duluth city limits are you surrounded by crackers?
Contrast that with OC, where you have the significant Asian populations (and all the food and shopping that accompany it) in Irvine --- plus other huge Asian culture centers in Westminster, Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa....etc. There really is nowhere like Southern California, and I know you know that. Sure it's imperfect --- but if this is the lifestyle you are looking for, there are really few substitutes.
I'm not trying to down Duluth, I'm just wondering aloud if that area is really all that much like OC. I'm sure it is a fine place....but just different. And the weather. Just saying.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2009/snapshots/PL1374936.html
Swanee, which is a neighboring city of Duluth is one step below Duluth in city status. Think of Duluth as Irvine and Swanee as Aliso Viejo. You can see that the job growth is 81.41% from the past 8 years compared to 21% in Irvine. Add to that a 88% growth of upper middle class Korean and Chinese population in this area has the right formula in becoming the next hot emerging area.
[/quote]
Have you spent a lot of time there, Panda? Is Duluth really similar to Irvine? Or maybe the question should be --- how is Gwinnett County compared to Orange County? When I was in the military one of my team members was from Gwinnett Cty, GA. He was a REAL redneck, like you see in movies. I can remember him talking about neighboring Forsyth County as well -- which the locals affectionately referred to as "For South" county.
When I look at the demographics of Duluth --- particularly as it relates to Asians --- while Duluth seems to have a higher Asian % than the Atlanta area as a whole, it is nowehere near what you find in Irvine, or Orange County for that matter. So when when you exit the Duluth city limits are you surrounded by crackers?
Contrast that with OC, where you have the significant Asian populations (and all the food and shopping that accompany it) in Irvine --- plus other huge Asian culture centers in Westminster, Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa....etc. There really is nowhere like Southern California, and I know you know that. Sure it's imperfect --- but if this is the lifestyle you are looking for, there are really few substitutes.
I'm not trying to down Duluth, I'm just wondering aloud if that area is really all that much like OC. I'm sure it is a fine place....but just different. And the weather. Just saying.
irvinerealtor
New member
[quote author="graceomalley"]
[quote author="ck"]
For the record, she bought me that wallet. But I'm not going to deny I like it.
<!-- s --><!-- s -->[/quote]
Revised to Chinese preying on White guys using LV wallet as a lure.[/quote]
At low tide, ants eat fish.
At high tide, fish eat ants.
- beerthief proverb
[quote author="ck"]
For the record, she bought me that wallet. But I'm not going to deny I like it.
<!-- s
--><!-- s -->[/quote]Revised to Chinese preying on White guys using LV wallet as a lure.[/quote]
At low tide, ants eat fish.
At high tide, fish eat ants.
- beerthief proverb
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
I have friend who lives either in or near Duluth (Peachtree Corners?)... and although it is nice... it's no Irvine... or Orange County. As CK said... it's a different mix of ethnicity and lifestyle.
They've been there for a while now and have adjusted (the first few years were rough) but I think they still want to return to Orange County in the future... possible when their kids get to Middle or High School.
As much as people say living in Cali is too expensive and hard for businesses... I'm not sure I can live elsewhere. All we need is a football team.
They've been there for a while now and have adjusted (the first few years were rough) but I think they still want to return to Orange County in the future... possible when their kids get to Middle or High School.
As much as people say living in Cali is too expensive and hard for businesses... I'm not sure I can live elsewhere. All we need is a football team.
graceomalley
New member
[quote author="irvinehomeowner"]I have friend who lives either in or near Duluth (Peachtree Corners?)... and although it is nice... it's no Irvine... or Orange County. As CK said... it's a different mix of ethnicity and lifestyle.
They've been there for a while now and have adjusted (the first few years were rough) but I think they still want to return to Orange County in the future... possible when their kids get to Middle or High School.
As much as people say living in Cali is too expensive and hard for businesses... I'm not sure I can live elsewhere. All we need is a football team.[/quote]
And some more land for the 3rd car.
They've been there for a while now and have adjusted (the first few years were rough) but I think they still want to return to Orange County in the future... possible when their kids get to Middle or High School.
As much as people say living in Cali is too expensive and hard for businesses... I'm not sure I can live elsewhere. All we need is a football team.[/quote]
And some more land for the 3rd car.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
[quote author="graceomalley"]
And some more land for the 3rd car-garage.[/quote]
Fixed... don't actually need the vehicle... just the space.
And some more land for the 3rd car-garage.[/quote]
Fixed... don't actually need the vehicle... just the space.
panda
Well-known member
[quote author="ck"]
[quote author="Panda "]I got one PM inquiry asking about the demographics of Duluth, GA and why i think this area will be a hot emerging area (Irvine 1997) in the next 5-10 years.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2009/snapshots/PL1374936.html
Swanee, which is a neighboring city of Duluth is one step below Duluth in city status. Think of Duluth as Irvine and Swanee as Aliso Viejo. You can see that the job growth is 81.41% from the past 8 years compared to 21% in Irvine. Add to that a 88% growth of upper middle class Korean and Chinese population in this area has the right formula in becoming the next hot emerging area.
[/quote]
Have you spent a lot of time there, Panda? Is Duluth really similar to Irvine? Or maybe the question should be --- how is Gwinnett County compared to Orange County? When I was in the military one of my team members was from Gwinnett Cty, GA. He was a REAL redneck, like you see in movies. I can remember him talking about neighboring Forsyth County as well -- which the locals affectionately referred to as "For South" county.
When I look at the demographics of Duluth --- particularly as it relates to Asians --- while Duluth seems to have a higher Asian % than the Atlanta area as a whole, it is nowehere near what you find in Irvine, or Orange County for that matter. So when when you exit the Duluth city limits are you surrounded by crackers?
Contrast that with OC, where you have the significant Asian populations (and all the food and shopping that accompany it) in Irvine --- plus other huge Asian culture centers in Westminster, Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa....etc. There really is nowhere like Southern California, and I know you know that. Sure it's imperfect --- but if this is the lifestyle you are looking for, there are really few substitutes.
I'm not trying to down Duluth, I'm just wondering aloud if that area is really all that much like OC. I'm sure it is a fine place....but just different. And the weather. Just saying. [/quote]
Hey CK. There is no question that I would prefer to live in Irvine over Duluth. Irvine and OC will always be a nicer area to live than Gwinnett County. CK, I know you are I like similar things when it comes to lifestyle, and Duluth is the most similar city I've seen that best follows the Irvine RE life cycle. My wife attended junior high and high school Irvine in the 90s and she tells me that Irvine was nice place to live, but nothing like the brand it is today. I asked her what she meant, and she said that since there were so many undeveloped land no one really knew how great Irvine would become. The 1990s real estate investors who had the vision of what Irvine would look like in 10-15 years profted handsomely from their investments. I see this same opportunity in Gwinnet county today. There are four new Asian shopping centers similar to Diamond Jamboree Shopping Center built just in the last ten years. The Korea town is new and vibrant. Job growth and population is growing, and higher income Asians are now just starting to flood into this area. Just like a any product cycle : (introduction, growth, maturity, decline.) I believe that Irvine is currently at the maturity stage of its cycle where as Duluth will soon enter its growth stage. CK, I know you are a value shopper like me, but in Irvine you have to pay BMW prices to buy a BMW. In Gwinett County, you can buy huge acre of land at Hyundai Accent Price which will eventually become a BMW within 7-10 years.
Personally, I am thinking that it would be great to have my primary residence in Irvine but rethinking of my strategy to expand my income RE investment portfolio in Gwinette County as i see a much bigger upside then investing in Irvine. As BKshopr has been preaching for years, the margins are no longer there in Irvine RE.
[quote author="Panda "]I got one PM inquiry asking about the demographics of Duluth, GA and why i think this area will be a hot emerging area (Irvine 1997) in the next 5-10 years.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2009/snapshots/PL1374936.html
Swanee, which is a neighboring city of Duluth is one step below Duluth in city status. Think of Duluth as Irvine and Swanee as Aliso Viejo. You can see that the job growth is 81.41% from the past 8 years compared to 21% in Irvine. Add to that a 88% growth of upper middle class Korean and Chinese population in this area has the right formula in becoming the next hot emerging area.
[/quote]
Have you spent a lot of time there, Panda? Is Duluth really similar to Irvine? Or maybe the question should be --- how is Gwinnett County compared to Orange County? When I was in the military one of my team members was from Gwinnett Cty, GA. He was a REAL redneck, like you see in movies. I can remember him talking about neighboring Forsyth County as well -- which the locals affectionately referred to as "For South" county.
When I look at the demographics of Duluth --- particularly as it relates to Asians --- while Duluth seems to have a higher Asian % than the Atlanta area as a whole, it is nowehere near what you find in Irvine, or Orange County for that matter. So when when you exit the Duluth city limits are you surrounded by crackers?
Contrast that with OC, where you have the significant Asian populations (and all the food and shopping that accompany it) in Irvine --- plus other huge Asian culture centers in Westminster, Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa....etc. There really is nowhere like Southern California, and I know you know that. Sure it's imperfect --- but if this is the lifestyle you are looking for, there are really few substitutes.
I'm not trying to down Duluth, I'm just wondering aloud if that area is really all that much like OC. I'm sure it is a fine place....but just different. And the weather. Just saying. [/quote]
Hey CK. There is no question that I would prefer to live in Irvine over Duluth. Irvine and OC will always be a nicer area to live than Gwinnett County. CK, I know you are I like similar things when it comes to lifestyle, and Duluth is the most similar city I've seen that best follows the Irvine RE life cycle. My wife attended junior high and high school Irvine in the 90s and she tells me that Irvine was nice place to live, but nothing like the brand it is today. I asked her what she meant, and she said that since there were so many undeveloped land no one really knew how great Irvine would become. The 1990s real estate investors who had the vision of what Irvine would look like in 10-15 years profted handsomely from their investments. I see this same opportunity in Gwinnet county today. There are four new Asian shopping centers similar to Diamond Jamboree Shopping Center built just in the last ten years. The Korea town is new and vibrant. Job growth and population is growing, and higher income Asians are now just starting to flood into this area. Just like a any product cycle : (introduction, growth, maturity, decline.) I believe that Irvine is currently at the maturity stage of its cycle where as Duluth will soon enter its growth stage. CK, I know you are a value shopper like me, but in Irvine you have to pay BMW prices to buy a BMW. In Gwinett County, you can buy huge acre of land at Hyundai Accent Price which will eventually become a BMW within 7-10 years.
Personally, I am thinking that it would be great to have my primary residence in Irvine but rethinking of my strategy to expand my income RE investment portfolio in Gwinette County as i see a much bigger upside then investing in Irvine. As BKshopr has been preaching for years, the margins are no longer there in Irvine RE.