2010 Woodbury/WBE New Home Pricing

irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
So now that the Grand Hoopla-- err --- Opening is done, many posters or lurkers have seen the actual models.

So, do you think they were priced right?

I've allowed up to two choices here because they might have priced them high for some projects but maybe just right or low for others. Please explain if you chose to go that route.
 
Shouldn't Just Right be the middle option with Way Too High above A Bit Too High? I bet a lot of people checked the wrong box by mistake.
 
Two votes for a bit too low? lol. There are definitely TIC shills on this board.
 
[quote author="ck"]Two votes for a bit too low? lol. There are definitely TIC shills on this board. [/quote]

shbokjlc.jpeg
 
[quote author="ck"]Two votes for a bit too low? lol. There are definitely TIC shills on this board. [/quote]
To be fair to the "low" votes... I did make this a 2-selection poll so some people may think that some of the non-traditional SFR product may be low compared to current available inventory.

I think you said yourself that Coronado seemed like a good deal compared to what else is out there. Has that changed since you've seen the models?
 
[quote author="irvinehomeowner"]

I think you said yourself that Coronado seemed like a good deal compared to what else is out there. Has that changed since you've seen the models?[/quote]

Yes, that opinion changed. When I said that I was under the impression that Coronado was starting in the mid $5's. As I look at the pricing sheet collected yesterday I see:

Plan 1: $596k
Plan 2: $625k
Plan 3: $645k

IMO that is too high, by at least $50k for each model. Once you consider the "out the door" price, I'd vote for way too high --- even on Coronado.

I see it this way....Coronado is a SFR, but not by much. I look at a resale like this townhouse in my very neighborhood, listed at $100k less than a Plan 2 Coronado. Is Coronado that much better than this, just for not having an attached wall? Maybe some people would say yes....I say no.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/45-Ardmore-92602/home/5844600

But who cares what I think, if enough people say yes KB will hit a homerun. The jury is out on that, right now.
 
I walked into Montecito, and just get a reaction I commented, "So are you guys planning on raising your prices by $20,000 every phase?" I received back "Well, it just depends...."

On what? How greedy you guys get? I wish they would just keep these prices level and let the place sell out... Plan 2 of Montecito was $760K in phase 1 and is now listed at $778K...
 
Benchmark pricing $375/sf as predicted 18 months ago on flat land. Value village Stonegate $355/sf

Read old IHB forum posts.

Orchard Hills: $433/sf
Laguna Crossing $455/sf

I don't endorse these numbers but they are my calculation based on $4mi/acre plus infrastructure. Unless TIC is willing to accept a lower land price I do not see prices coming down.

Judging from the absorption I don't see prices coming down at all unless competition arises. VOC and Great Park are both in the coffin and resales are in shadow.

TIC again monopolizes the market. Timing and strategy could not have been better. Sheeple's desperation also fueled TIC's overwhelming success.

BagOChip allowed TIC to sell more quantity to lower value ratio starting in the $345/sf. Options would allow TIC to profit more by CA Room conversions.
 
[quote author="graceomalley"]Benchmark pricing $375/sf as predicted 18 months ago on flat land. Value village Stonegate $355/sf

Read old IHB forum posts.

Orchard Hills: $433/sf
Laguna Crossing $455/sf[/quote]

We love you because you know the truth, and speak the truth. So $1.1M for 2,500 sq ft in Orchard Hills. Not too far off that original interest card they sent back in 2007. Ouch.
 
[quote author="ck"]
[quote author="graceomalley"]Benchmark pricing $375/sf as predicted 18 months ago on flat land. Value village Stonegate $355/sf

Read old IHB forum posts.

Orchard Hills: $433/sf
Laguna Crossing $455/sf[/quote]

We love you because you know the truth, and speak the truth. So $1.1M for 2,500 sq ft in Orchard Hills. Not too far off that original interest card they sent back in 2007. Ouch.[/quote]

I've got my bags of gold ready to plop down for my OH home already <!-- s;) -->;)<!-- s;) -->
 
Northern Sphere is the only place left for development in Irvine. Other than the flatlands PS, Orchard and LXing are reserved for luxury products enhanced by elevated topography. Selling price will go even higher for the Irvine's finale of luxury products. TIC will milk this.


The rest of the land inventory are in East Orange and East Anaheim. This should be about the right timing for Mr Bren to make huge donation to the Orange Unified School District and build an enhanced performance supplemental district like the better upgraded Tustin Schools.

Erica Chavez's kid will have the benefit of a better school by then.
 
[quote author="graceomalley"]Benchmark pricing $375/sf as predicted 18 months ago on flat land. Value village Stonegate $355/sf

Read old IHB forum posts.

Orchard Hills: $433/sf
Laguna Crossing $455/sf

I don't endorse these numbers but they are my calculation based on $4mi/acre plus infrastructure. Unless TIC is willing to accept a lower land price I do not see prices coming down.

Judging from the absorption I don't see prices coming down at all unless competition arises. VOC and Great Park are both in the coffin and resales are in shadow.

TIC again monopolizes the market. Timing and strategy could not have been better. Sheeple's desperation also fueled TIC's overwhelming success.

BagOChip allowed TIC to sell more quantity to lower value ratio starting in the $345/sf. Options would allow TIC to profit more by CA Room conversions.[/quote]

Irvine mayor Sookee Kang said the same thing, "Don't expect home prices to fall in Irvine because it won't as this is the bottom." I wanted to argue with him, but since Deuce was right next to me, I had to keep my cool.
 
[quote author="IACRenter"]

I've got my bags of gold ready to plop down for my OH home already ;)[/quote]

I don't have any bags of gold. But I do have some bags of recycling in the garage, waiting to be cashed in down at the machines outside of the Tustin Ranch Plaza Ralph's. Guess I better forget about Orchard Hills and stay focused on West Irvine.

:mad:
 
[quote author="ck"]
[quote author="IACRenter"]

I've got my bags of gold ready to plop down for my OH home already ;)[/quote]

I don't have any bags of gold. But I do have some bags of recycling in the garage, waiting to be cashed in down at the machines outside of the Tustin Ranch Plaza Ralph's. Guess I better forget about Orchard Hills and stay focused on West Irvine.



:mad:[/quote]

Start collecting cans now. 20,000,000 soda cans would be enough for a house in OH. That is 166 cans from each Irvine resident. See you at the curbside at 5am!
 
Where are the people who kept telling me on the IHB that Irvine is going to bottom just like everywhere else? Even IrvineRenter is scaling back his bottom calls for Irvine.

With TIC propaganda... I'm never going to be able to buy a newer 3WCG for $750k.

Panda: Do you still think Irvine is going to hit $275/sf? Current prices are like $377/sf for the last 6 months on 4/3 or bigger SFRs... seems like a long way to go.
 
[quote author="Panda "]

Irvine mayor Sookee Kang said the same thing, "Don't expect home prices to fall in Irvine because it won't as this is the bottom." I wanted to argue with him, but since Deuce was right next to me, I had to keep my cool. [/quote]

ill be shocked if the bottom in Irvine is in. It just doesnt make sense that prices can stay this high.
 
[quote author="qwerty"]
[quote author="Panda "]

Irvine mayor Sookee Kang said the same thing, "Don't expect home prices to fall in Irvine because it won't as this is the bottom." I wanted to argue with him, but since Deuce was right next to me, I had to keep my cool. [/quote]

ill be shocked if the bottom in Irvine is in. It just doesnt make sense that prices can stay this high. [/quote]

I know this is heresy but here is the link to the IHB blog from today--interesting but not surprising to me: This is NOT the Bottom.

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/no-housing-market-bottom-17-sunrise-irvine/
 
Chinese buyers are preventing Irvine from reaching the bottom. Other neighboring cities have see greater depreciation except for Irvine.

From an investment perspective it is best to buy low in the Irvine adjacent cities since they are the lowest right now and let the prices escalate. The margin is there while Irvine is safe but there is very little margin.

History of the last 3 recessions have shown the Irvine fringes RE prices rose the most but also were less stable.

The key is to know when to buy and to sell like stocks. Santa Ana and Tustin for examples had an increase of 350%. When you see a lot of risky construction products like high rise, podium and wraps that is when the right time to sell.

If you are not a risk taker then Irvine is a safe bet.

Asians are the biggest risk taker at the Casino but seldom a gambler with their home purchase.
 
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